Thinking FITBAW Saturday Nite Open Thread

Look, I don’t care about the #IceBFIB.  Nor the Swampass On Ice! series.  So, bear with me.  I daydreamed about this topic (Friday nap time), and am backing it up with Bovada lines.  I wanted to look at the AFC and NFC, and show where I see “value” and teams that others are “on” but I just don’t get.  Feel free to ruminate on your nominees in the comments.

American FITBAW Conference

Good Value (to make the Owl)

Here, I am going with the Fat Humps.  Their season win over/under is at 9.5 (though it’s -175 to bet the over), and they seem to have a glide path to at least their conference (with apologies to DonT).  Those Magnificent Tits look like they are at least mini-rebuilding, and we shall see how el Tractorcito holds up.  But even a split with Tennessee leaves FOUR FIXTURES against the 500s and Jaguras.  10-7, shit, even 11-6 seems like the minimal expectation, unless Matty Ice dies.  Recall how shit hot they were with a ret…Darnold-ish quartered back last year, until the last two weeks.  Ryan already made one Owl, with a much less complete team than he will lead in the Gravy Boat.  Once we get “AFC Shempion” lines, this is who I will bet.  Again, this is FOR VALUE, not a PURE FAVOURITE (as I am sure Buffalo will be odds-on, likely with KC next).

Good Value (to make the Playoffs)

Fronk got me thinking the other day, and WHY NOT the Robert Saleh-led Jest?  Their over/under is at 6 (-125 to bet the over), and I think 7-10 or 8-9 is their floor, unless their Stormin’ Mormon QB is somehow even WORSE in Season 2.  Should he make the leap to competence, I see 10-7 as a distinct possibility.  Well-coached, with a great draft class coming in.  I don’t buy the P*ts or LOLfins at all (see below) even if they get swept by Bills Mafia.

Hippo Just Don’t See It

Deffo not the LOLfins.  You don’t “buy high” on a speed-only receiver who’s nearing 30.  Miami did.  Tua and his happy feet (and popgun fin) are still in town.  Messy divorce with Brian Flores on top of that, and I could see the wheels falling the fuck off.  Their over/under is 9 (-120 for the over), and these fish reek of 7-10 or worse to me.

National FITBAW Conference

Good Value (to make the Owl)

Here I am again with a known unknown at QB, but if Trey Lance has “it” at all, this Tomsulas squadron has everything.  On paper, it’s a loaded conference – but RRRRRRRRAM IT!! are getting older and more pressed by the salary cap.  Their left tackle retired, and that usually causes major problems for any squadron.  The Qardinals look like a train wreck is imminent, and the SeaTruthers might start Horse Cock Lock.  Yikes.  Gimme Santa Clara, getting to 12 wins and being a team that’s built for playoff success.

Good Value (to make the Playoffs)

God help me, but I see another laughingstock with a solid 2nd year coach – the Goddamned Detroit Lions.  Even if the over/under is 6.5, this team could get to 9-8 and that should suffice in the weaker conference.  I liked their draft, I like how they fought down the stretch in 2021.  Their OL could be really good.  Th’Andre Swift could be a fantasy league-winner, too.  Chi**** is going to be shitty beyond all belief, and what if Q-aaron gets hurt?  And has he EVAR shown that much without Davante Adams?  I’m telling ya, there’s a path here.  And nobody will want to bet this.

Hippo Just Don’t See It

Sorry, Commies.  Ron Rivera is a good coach, but Dakota Jeebus and organizational dysfunction won’t get you over the 8.5-win hump.  A Trotskyite purge is surely in the offering, perhaps before the season even ends.  I don’t buy Philly as much as the average mammal, but they’ll improve.  So will the G-men.  The Non-Gendered Cowpersons have coaching…limitations, but Dak! can still make plays and they have two generational stars on the defensive unit.  If Washington win 6, I will be surprised.

Odds and Ends

$10 each of Isaiah Spiller (Offensive ROY, +2800) and Deebo Samuel (regular season MVP, +5500), because I like throwing moneys away.