Latest posts by Horatio Cornblower (see all)
As you may recall about a month ago I put together a somewhat researched mock draft, doing the best I could with several hours of research and writing and stuff. It was actually a fair amount of work and gave me a new appreciation for all the work that the people who regula…
Ah, fuck, who am I kidding? It did take me a long time to write, but that’s only because there are 32 teams and even putting 5-10 minutes of work into each team, (which is a pretty fucking generous estimate if I’m being honest), that adds up. Mock drafts are ridiculous. No one who does one has any idea of what they’re doing and if you get 20% of the picks right you’re a goddamn legend. However, this is ostensibly an NFL-oriented blog and if we’re going to pretend to be that then we have to have a mock draft and not only that but we have to revise the goddamn thing, preferably several times. Since none of you assholes submitted your own mock drafts, and since I’m writing this two days before the actual draft, I guess two versions will have to do.
By the way, my estimated time to get this revision done? 40 minutes. Let’s see Mel Kiper do that! Please, follow along with the draft in the comments, make fun of my bone-head picks, (hint: there are 31 of them), and see how I do compared to Mel, Todd, PK and everyone else who gets paid to do this shit. My guess is I hold my own and, again, 40 minutes. Go!
- Cleveland Browns: Myles Garret. Status: Unchanged. This is the one pick I would bet money on. And expect to win. As anyone who’s played in the DFO poker room with me will attest, I’ll bet money on pretty much anything.
- San Francisco 49ers: Solomon Thomas. Status: Changed! Everything I’ve seen lately shows the QB prospects plunging, with Watson, the previous choice here, falling into the mid-teens. Part of me still thinks that QB whisperer Kyle Shanahan will want to take Watson or Trubisky here but a bigger part of me has been persuaded that the 49ers will take Thomas here, grab a QB like Kizer early in the second round, tank the season and come back with a top 4 pick next season, (and maybe Kirk Cousins), and see what they can do.
- Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky. Status: Unchanged. I have almost no confidence in this pick. As noted above the QBs have been plunging in the mock drafts and everyone seems to realize that Trubisky only started 13 games in college and that that’s not a lot to go on. Countering this, however, is that the Bears are run by 10,000 chimps banging away at 10,000 typewriters and Trubisky just seems like the kind of typo they’d come up with. Also with the Bears having Mike Glennon and with Trubisky needing time to develop he is perfect for a team trying to tank the season and get another high pick next year and then teaming him up with a more seasoned Trubisky. Seems like a very Chicago thing to do in that it’s technically illegal and probably won’t work. So I’m sticking with Mitch and his melanin deficiency. Just ask Jared Goff about how much a lack of melanin helps an unprepared QB’s draft stock.
- Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Fournette. Status: Changed! I thought Fournette was a possibility here back in March and since then Jonathan Allen, who I had going here, has started to slip some because he didn’t do well at the combine and concerns about his undergoing shoulder surgery. The combine is bullshit and most people who’ve played football to age 21 probably need some kind of surgery but if you’re the Jaguars and you can either take a guy who bombed the combine and needs a new shoulder or get a beast of a RB, especially after seeing what Zeke did for the Cowboys last year, I’m going to guess they take Fournette. But I won’t be surprised if they take Allen. In fact I won’t be surprised if I get all of these wrong except Garret!
- Tennessee Titans: Mike Williams. Status: Unchanged. Lately I’m seeing (I saw this once) OJ Howard going here and I had the Titans taking him at 18 in the first version of this little opus. He now seems unlikely to be there at 18 but I don’t see the Titans taking him at 5. They could trade down from 5 to try to get him at 10-15 but if I start trying to predict trades I’m going to go insane. Fuck that. Also Tennessee has a good D, a good RB, a decent QB, a good TE and shit WR. Williams just makes too much sense here.
- New York Jets: Marshon Lattimore. Status: Unchanged. A lot of people, PK among them, have the Jets either trading down to get OJ Howard or DeShaun Watson or outright drafting Howard right here. I think the latter more likely than the former, simply because the Jets fans will undoubtedly flash back to Kyle Brady and all get PTSD, which would be awesome. But if Lattimore’s still here, (the Bears may very well fuck me on this one), I can’t see the Jets and their dumpster fire of a secondary passing on him. There’s also talk about the Jets drafting Trubisky here or trading up to get him, but I still think they’re more likely to throw money at Cutler, just because that seems like the most Jets thing to do.
- Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Hooker. Status: Changed! I had the Chargers taking Thomas here but I just gave him to the 49ers so that’s out. It’s really a numbers game; a significant majority of people have the Chargers taking Hooker, I gave him some consideration in the first version and if Thomas isn’t there I see no good reason, (except Jonathan Allen), not to pick him here.
- Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey. Status: Changed! A word or two about McCaffrey. He is rocketing up draft boards. To me he is the classic guy who was great in college and is not going to be at all great in the pros. Could I be wrong? YES! MORE THAN LIKELY!! But I still think Carolina will regret not taking Jonathan Allen here and that drafting the second coming of Toby Gerhart will ensure them of little more than drafting in the Top 10 again next year.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Corey Davis. Status: Unchanged. This is another pick that I have little confidence in. Fun fact, the Bengals mock drafts are some of the most hilariously delusional drafts out there. They make sensible first picks like OJ Howard, or even Jonathan Allen but the second round pick is inevitably someone who has plunged 20 places for no reason at all other than that the Bengals fan doing the mock draft desperately wants him on their team. So yeah, this pick is probably wrong but it’s infinitely more accurate than what your average Bengals fan thinks is going to happen in Round 2.
- Buffalo Bills: DeShaun Watson. Status: Changed. I feel kind of bad because I agree with Mel Kiper here. Nonetheless it does seem likely that Watson is going to fall but he is not going to fall past Buffalo. Which is too bad because I think he may be the best QB prospect of the 4 I’m aware of and Buffalo will end him before he can even get going.
- New Orleans Saints: Jonathan Allen. Status. Changed. Derek Barnett seems like a very good pick but Jonathan Allen is plummeting since Version 1.0 and I suspect that his plunge lands hard on Bourbon Street. Which could be a lot worse for Allen. Look who’s up next!
- Cleveland Browns: OJ Howard. Status: Changed! Because I was sort of joking about Cook and his past is apparently raising some concerns, enough that his draft position is best represented by that plane you see up above. Because the Browns don’t have a good QB, (and I don’t see Trubisky or Watson falling this far), and if you don’t have a good QB you can help an average QB get better with an elite TE and Howard has been shooting up draft boards because everyone thinks he will be an elite TE. Note that this also seems like the most-likely-to-be-traded pick.
- Arizona Cardinals: Derek Barnett. Status: Changed! Because Brian Kelly killed DeShone Kizer’s reputation, apparently no longer satisfied with just killing student assistants. With Kizer now almost guaranteed to fall into the second round, (and if he does, hello Cleveland!), the Cardinals seem more likely to focus on their defensive needs and Barnett does that nicely. I considered Reuben Foster here too, (in the revised version), but then I heard he had a diluted drug sample in addition to throwing a shit-fit at the combine, and that seems like something that should drop you in the draft, and is something that Barnett has not done. Yet.
- Philadelphia Eagles: Haason Reddick, LB Temple. Status: Changed! In the interest of full disclosure I had initially changed this pick to Gareon Conely, the CB from Ohio State who had been getting a lot of great press and was moving up the draft boards. But then on Wednesday, while ensconced in the men’s room with nothing but my thoughts and the NY Times sports section for company I also learned that Conley has gotten a smidgen of bad press. As in “being investigated in connection with a rape” bad press. I don’t see how a prospect survives that and stays in the first round. Of course it probably means that the Cowboys will sign him as a free agent so, hurray? Apparently the Eagles fans will riot in happiness if this “Local Boy Makes Good Story” happens, so that’s something to look forward to. I mean, they’re going to riot anyway; might as well do it out of joy rather than rage.
- Indianapolis Colts:Reuben Foster. Status: Changed! If there’s one person who needs a good linebacker and doesn’t give a shit about random outbursts and diluted drug tests it’s Jim Irsay.
- Baltimore Ravens: Takkarist McKinley. Status: Changed! Because I shipped Foster off to Indianapolis and they still need to think about replacing Suggs, and because even though Dalvin Cook would probably be a good fit on the Ravens there is no way in hell the Ravens are going to draft a RB with off-field issues this high. Janay Rice apologizes for her role in that decision.
- Washington Redacteds: Jamal Adams. Status: Changed! I seem to have switched Adams with Hooker, who I had the Redacteds drafting here, and since they’re both highly rated safeties I guess Adams will go here. Good a reason as any other.
- Tennessee Titans: Quincy Wilson. Status: Changed! Because Howard’s gone, because the Titan’s need a CB more than they need David Njoku and because Wilson’s the best CB still on the board, according to people who know these things.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dalvin Cook. Status: Changed! Because the Buccaneers could use a good RB, because Cook is a very good RB and because Tampa Bay clearly doesn’t give a shit about Florida State stars having off-field issues.
- Denver Broncos: Ryan Ramczyk. Status: Unchanged. No change here but a word about Christian McCaffrey. He seems to be rocketing up draft boards, to the point that people don’t think he’ll be around when Denver picks, because if he is John Elway will say “Well, we both went to Stanford and his Dad was good so he must be too” and take him here. To me McCaffrey is the classic guy who was great in college and is not going to be at all great in the pros. Could I be wrong? YES! McCaffrey will be long gone before Denver picks and the team that gets him can brag about having the next Toby Gerhart all the way to a Top 5 pick in next year’s draft.
- Detroit Lions: Taco Charlton. Status: Unchanged. Most drafts I’ve seen have Charlton going before this. If he’s still around here the Lions would be stupid to let him drop any farther. So yeah, they’ll draft John Ross.
- Miami Dolphins: Davd Njoku. Status: Unchanged. I liked him here in Version 1.0, I haven’t seen much about him moving up and I therefore see no reason to change the pick. Also I am lazy.
- New York Giants: Garrett Bolles. Status: Changed! The Giants still need help on the line if Eli isn’t going to beat his brother’s record for surgeries. I had the Giants taking Cam Robinson here but Bolles is getting a lot of good press lately and Robinson doesn’t seem to be.
- Oakland Raiders: Jabril Peppers. Status: Changed! I think the Raiders could probably use a DE like Harris here more, as in Version 1.0 but based on past experience with the Raiders all things being equal they can’t resist names and speed and Peppers has both. He may not have a position but surely Oakland can figure something out for him.
- Houston Texans: Pat Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech. Status: Changed! The Texans undoubtedly need a QB of the future and while I kind of doubt Mahomes is going to be that there is simply too much chatter about him lately for me to keep thinking he’s getting past Houston. It’s probably wishful thinking on their part and they may come to regret it but I don’t think they’ll be able to resist.
- Seattle Seahawks: Cam Robinson. Status: Changed! If the Texans actually take Mahomes and pass on Robinson Pete Carroll’s ejaculate will melt steel beams. The Seahawks desperately need O-line help and Robinson fits that need very well. Brush up on your conspiracy theories Cam!
- Kansas City Chiefs: Zach Cunningham. Status: Unchanged. It’s between Cunngham and Florida’s Jarrod Davis at this point in this no-doubt-shitshow-of-a-mock-draft and I put Cunningham here last time and can’t think of any good reason to change him out.
- Dallas Cowboys: Charles Harris. Status: Changed! Thanks to me assigning Peppers to Oakland Harris has managed to fall to the Cowboys and I am pleased to announce that they no longer have to take a(nother) extremely questionable guy to get the pass rusher they so obviously need. Welcome aboard Charles, and please don’t kill any hookers. (They’ll still take Williams in the second round)
- Green Bay Packers: Marlon Humphrey. Status: Changed! The domino theory at work. The Browns take Howard, screwing the Titans. The Titans take Wilson, screwing the Packers. The Packers take Humphrey, and are probably still pretty happy. Everyone likes a good screwing.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: Jarrad Davis. Status: Unchanged. Davis is still around and the Steelers love linebackers, and happen to need one. Done and done.
- Atlanta Falcons: Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State. Status: Changed! A lot of drafts have the Falcons taking TJ Watt here but I will be goddamned if I give another Watt a first round pedestal to talk about their humility and stunning work ethic. McDowell’s got some character issues but with some people saying he’d be the second pick overall without them. Since he’s apparently just “lazy” and doesn’t practice hard, (also a little heavy on the melanin ifyouknowwhatimean), and hasn’t actually killed anyone I say the Falcons would be nuts not to take him at 31.
- New Orleans Saints: Obi Melinfowu. Status: Unchanged. I have no idea who the Saints will pick. People seem to have calmed down about Obi blowing up the combine but the Saints still need defense so unless they trade this pick to the Patriots in some bizarre deal for Malcolm Butler then I’ll stick with my first choice.
Please enjoy the draft. I look forward to my well-deserved humiliation and your just-as-certain understanding and sympathy.