Good evening, Commentists! It’s Oscar night, and I’m here to set the stage for your finest cinematological dick jokes. Here are the nominees for Best Picture, ranked, and my predictions for which of them will actually win.
10. Darkest Hour
Impeccably acted and unexpectedly pretty to look at. There are no bad movies nominated for Best Picture, just great movies and good movies and movies I’m actually a little angry at for not being as good as they could have been, and Darkest Hour is just a good movie. It’s the year’s second-best film about the evacuation of Dunkirk, depicting an emotionally complex but morally sanitized Winston Churchill in one of his life’s more admirable moments.
9. The Post
Full marks to Stephen Spielberg and everyone else involved for turning this movie around extremely quickly. Spielberg got the film in March or so of 2017, and my first memory about The Post is being surprised to learn it existed, in November 2017 or so. It’s a smart, entertaining newsroom flick, not on the level of, say, Spotlight, but an achievement all the same.
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
This one, yep, this is the one that could have been so much better. Three Billboards is a great movie about the destructive power of grief, and a great movie about a woman raging against an uncaring patriarchal order (the dentist scene is an especially wonderful moment in this vein), a great movie about family violence, even, and a totally clueless movie about racism and police violence. Yeah, maybe it’s cathartic seeing a black billboard painter fearlessly face down a racist cop in the middle of nowhere, but it’s not believable. Mildred uses black people as goads and as props, to needle the police and to justify her crusade. This would be great commentary if Three Billboards seemed at all aware that this was what she was doing, but instead it mostly falls into the same trap as its protagonist. I went into Three Billboards wanting to love it unreservedly, and if McDonagh had been a little more realistic about his ambitions for the film, I’m sure I would have.
7. Call Me by Your Name
Look, I don’t want to tell anyone how to do their job, and even if I did I don’t think the casting director for Call Me by Your Name would listen, because it scored one acting Oscar nomination and could conceivably have had two more. But, Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer don’t look 17 and 24 years old respectively (the ages of their characters in the book Call Me is adapted from), they look respectively younger and much older, and while I don’t really think Call Me is a story about sexual predation, that’s a lot harder to reconcile with what’s actually onscreen than it needed to be. I don’t blame anyone for being uncomfortable with this movie, and it’s too bad because it really is beautiful and touching otherwise.
6. Phantom Thread
That’s a hell of a thing for Paul Thomas Anderson to spring on his audience right at the end of his movie, isn’t it? (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, trust me, just watch the movie. It’s worth seeing and it still hasn’t made its budget back.) You could reasonably accuse Phantom Thread of dragging for much of its runtime (my parents almost walked out of it from sheer boredom) but if you watch carefully, it’s always laying the groundwork for that one ridiculous moment. Side note: I saw that Jennifer Lawrence didn’t like this movie, which is funny because it’s about exactly the same thing as mother!.
5. Lady Bird
lady snow’s Best Picture for 2017, and with good reason. I’ll let her tell you about it.
“I liked when Lady Bird dove out of the car, obviously. She’s a character with a lot of spirit, and I definitely relate to her from my own time growing up. And I appreciated the way the movie handled depicting a dysfunctional family. Just because you’re dysfunctional doesn’t mean you don’t still love each other a lot, and this family clearly did.”
4. Get Out
Definitely one of the smartest films nominated for an Oscar in 2017. If I have a complaint, it’s that I didn’t find Get Out as scary as some of the other great horror movies of the year (Raw or It Comes at Night to name a couple) but it’s disturbing on another level and it does what I like most in a horror flick or thriller, manipulating the tropes of the genre to explore some deeper aspect of human experience, in the manner of recent classics like The VVitch or It Follows.
3. Dunkirk
Dunkirk, on the other hand, is precisely and perfectly executed real-life horror story where the horror is the entire message. Every aspect of Nolan’s production is fine-tuned to create maximum anxiety, including the odd-sounding but deadly effective story structure. I saw Drew Magary joke over on Deadspin that they forgot to write a screenplay for this movie, but while obviously Dunkirk doesn’t have the ornate dialogue of Call Me by Your Name or the exquisite character development of Lady Bird, I think Dunkirk‘s carefully sequenced cliffhangers are their own sort of great writing.
2. The Shape of Water
Guys, go see The Shape of Water, but please don’t take your kids. Some parents a few seats over from lady snow and I did, and it was deeply, deeply uncomfortable. Fortunately, I quickly forgot they were there, because The Shape of Water is a thoroughly immersive spectacle that never loses its human scale even though probably the most important character isn’t human and, um, has scales. Anyway, The Shape of Water was clearly made with so much care and love, and makes Sally Hawkins having a relationship with a fish man not just believable but totally compelling.
1. Mudbound
I Can’t Believe You’re Doing This Shit Again, Can’t You Just Pick From The Real Nominees Like A Normal Person: It’s my post series and I’ll do what I want.
No One’s Watching The Oscars Tonight To Find Out What You Think: Okay. I know. Fine. The actual predictions then.
Will Win/Should Win: The Shape of Water. This is so far from a sure thing, with all the hardware that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has picked up this awards season. I see Best Picture this year as eventually a two-horse race, and you can definitely make the case that Three Billboards should be favored, but in the end I have to trust the same gut that told me Moonlight last year and Spotlight two years ago. I just don’t believe the Academy will choose a film with Three Billboards‘ delirious highs but numerous glaring issues over a rock-solid, attentively crafted and deeply moving story like The Shape of Water.
Upset Special Two-For One: Lady Bird, Get Out. A lot of people who should know better are already talking themselves into a Get Out win. That’s likely to end in disappointment, but here’s the case both for both Get Out and Lady Bird: They’ve got directing, acting, and screenplay nominations. They’ve got substantial campaigns behind them, and plenty of popular support. And maybe the changing membership of the Academy makes it less like the Golden Globes and the guild awards. Both films are still pretty big long shots, in my opinion. If Lady Bird in particular wins, it’s probably going to mean I was wrong about a lot of other awards.
But What About: No, sorry, I think Dunkirk‘s fantastic, but it’s not going to happen. No, not even if it wins Best Editing.
make it snow is an alot of beer who’s watched alot of movies. Did you know that the red carpet is red so it won’t show bloodstains when Michael Shannon murders someone? Anyway, enjoy the show!
What’s that? I didn’t do original art for all the movies? I promise it’s coming, in a recap post after the awards.
Best part of every Oscars is the ” In Memoriam”. It’s the best warped popularity contest.
Had a chance to hear an acceptance speech from a porg and they fucked it up
Dunkirk’s gonna clean up, eh?
Nazis are big in Hollywood
In Charlottesville, too.
No; they left a lot of junk on the beach and a bunch is still there.
Blade Runner got fucking robbed. I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard a movie quite like that before.
Those Rocky clips remind me of the time the Eagles won the Super Bowl
Here’s Oscar winner Dame Helen Mirren’s ass:
9/10
Would spank.
I’m still out with out-of-town friends so apologies if I’m not very active.
How dare you
When Uncle Ed saw Get Out’s movie poster, he thought it was a re-enactment of when he said “Jim Brown is a great football player”
Was Icarus good or is this a “Fuck Russia amirite?” pick?
Why is it that in movies, if there is a military depiction, everyone is snarky as hell to their superiors?
Like right in their faces or obviously in ear shot. Its so fucking cliched…I blame the original “MASH” movie…which by the way, is superior to the show in every single way.
How am I supposed to fetishize the concept of chain-of-command and use it as the tentpole for my whole political platform though?
Jimmy Kimmel epitomizes the entertainment industry. He’s (+/-) ok and therefore the very best they have to offer.
To think I can still remember him as the guy doing punch up on Win Ben Stein’s Money, meaning he’s at least as good as Nixon.
Cousin Sal can eat shit though
I regret that I can only give this one +
I’m sorry Ben, it says “Moops” right here on the card.
I hope that’s not an oil-based lubricant.
I hope she doesn’t have a mouthful of straw.
Grandma looks lost
[zooms in on date]
Oh.
See; he ran in there.
Logan Lucky was robbed of all categories.
Three Dildos in Chesterfield, MO was better
Three dildos in Chester Field and Mo? Who had the third one?
A sherm-ridden tony la russa
If a native american woman ever wins an oscar, I hope she has some unknown white guy to accept the award for her.
I have a better chance of shitting out an Oscar right now than an indigenous woman of any kind winning an Oscar.
Was Three Billboards as good as Moon? I’m betting it wasn’t
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Well, shit, snow, one bet down where you would have been in the money…
Yeah. Good for Sam Rockwell
Having seen only Get Out and not paying attention to most movies at a ll, it’s always interesting to see what they actually are. Shape of Water is apparently a reboot of Creature from teh Black Lagoon?
Helen Mirren not included is very disappointing
In Buddy’s list of “50 Milifiest Ladies on Earth”? She’s on there
Damned right.
I’m watching “Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets” because it is free on Amazon Prime.
I’m like 30 minutes into it. Its one of those movies you can see what they are trying to achieve except the casting is just bizarre.
I do not understand how someone thought Dane DeHaan would be an appropriate leading man. He tries to deliver his lines like a leading man and its like watching someone doing a moron version of Keanu Reeves.
Cara Delevingne appears like she always does…”serviceable”.
This movie suffers from what all movies today seem to suffer from and that is where the cast all do quips at each other. Every character is a smart ass. Its so damn lazy and it makes every character act and sound the same.
“He tries to deliver his lines like a leading man and its like watching someone doing a moron version of Keanu Reeves.”
– Keanu Reeves
Yeah it would be a good joke except this is really the only way to describe this guy’s acting. I don’t blame him because DeHaan has been good in other films.
Its really a bizarre casting choice.
It was still a good joke.
Use your powers.
I’m just here for confused old white people fucking up the Best Picture presentation
It’s the same confused old white people this year as last year!
Well, if you have to drink cheap vodka…
I’m listening to a podcast episode about 70s leftist guerrillas in America and one of these white hippie dickheads talks about using orgies to smash monogamy and all that shit, and that “people who fuck together fight together.” It’s stupid, but funny enough that’s exactly what the Spartans thought, too. Philadelphia doesn’t mean asexual brotherly love.
I have nothing but contempt for the assholes that made up the Weather Underground.
The whole “Day of Rage” thing is a perfect personification of all that is wrong with left wing politics in America.
Effectively a bunch of rich kids took over the SDS, destroying a nation wide organization that was organizing effectively so these kids could play insurgent. They destroyed downtown Chicago for no real effective gain and then all the rich kids got bailed out by their parents. These knuckle heads managed to turn this shit into successful academic careers while the minorities that got roped in with the fiasco typically got long term prison sentences or killed by the cops.
Their major claim to fame is they never killed anyone, which conveniently ignores the fact they killed three of their own in an illicit bomb factory that was being used to make explosives to take out an NCO family dance.
I love the fact they were going to protest the Vietnam War by killing service members and their families at a fucking dance, like these people had a fucking say in US foreign policy.
White people suck.
FUCKING IKEA.
I really can’t get into the combine anymore. The whole thing is silly and depressing. Young men going up onto the block to be inspected and then bid on. And really, they are fighting for the chance to get a paycheck, when most really won’t make that much money and will end up with a lifetime of painful injuries.
In the same vein, I can’t get into the Oscars because I find myself wondering which one of the actors were raped to get their role.
I really miss being an ignorant kid.
Same.
Kevin Spacey raped himself I thought
“Wait, what’s the bad part?”
–Mike Mayock
In honor of the latest Juventus docuseries, NetFlix has announced a new series “Gran Torino FC”.
In the first episode, club chairman Walt Kowalski wonders why there’s so many Guinea bastards on the team, and that cross-town rivals Juve look like a buncha Foot Locker queers in their kits.
I really hope the Cowboys take shaquem griffin in the 2nd round
so i put $10 on the Mets and Mariners to win it all. Mets pay out is $230 and Mariners is $440. that should keep me curious about assgrab baseball for 3 weeks.
Apropos of nothing, I’m really glad the Eagles won the Super Bowl.
Mmm.
I want to hear the conversation between those parents and kids about Sally Hawkins’s daily masturbation routine in the opening montage, but more importantly I want to hear them explain fish sex and the retractable penis.
Lindsay Vonn is at the Oscars if anyone’s back still hurts.
LaGuardia shout-out! And the Sinatra kids hang their heads in shame.
The only Oscar I need
But what about Mudbound?
Man don’t even get me started on this injustice.
It’s quite appropriate.
Dunkirk got this in the bag.
-BeastmodeAteMyBaby
“It was me.”
-Jada Pinkett
I wish I could like this more.
New Lord Huron
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NY50XnGKvRE&feature=youtu.be
Folks. Dez caught it.
Who’d you pick for Best Actor/Actress and Supporting Actor/Actress?
/Sincere apologies if you’ve covered that in previous posts.
You can click the “Oscars 2018” tag and look at the post before this one to read more of my thoughts on those categories, but real quick:
Best actress: Will be Frances McDormand, should be Margot Robbie
Best actor: Will be Gary Oldman, should be Denzel Washington
Supporting actress: Will be/should be Allison Janney
Supporting actor: Will be Sam Rockwell, should be Richard Jenkins
Thanks! I’m at work and will now try to win $ off my co-workers. Waitresses have cash!!
I wish I weren’t too much of a coward to bet on this shit.
The Tomsula Saga ???
Saw it at a Sundance premiere a few years ago. Rutger Hauer was there, and I don’t think that dude was acting in that movie.
The Young Andy Reid Chronicles