Oscar Night 2018 Open Thread

Good evening, Commentists! It’s Oscar night, and I’m here to set the stage for your finest cinematological dick jokes. Here are the nominees for Best Picture, ranked, and my predictions for which of them will actually win.

10. Darkest Hour

Impeccably acted and unexpectedly pretty to look at. There are no bad movies nominated for Best Picture, just great movies and good movies and movies I’m actually a little angry at for not being as good as they could have been, and Darkest Hour is just a good movie. It’s the year’s second-best film about the evacuation of Dunkirk, depicting an emotionally complex but morally sanitized Winston Churchill in one of his life’s more admirable moments.

9. The Post

Full marks to Stephen Spielberg and everyone else involved for turning this movie around extremely quickly. Spielberg got the film in March or so of 2017, and my first memory about The Post is being surprised to learn it existed, in November 2017 or so. It’s a smart, entertaining newsroom flick, not on the level of, say, Spotlight, but an achievement all the same.

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This one, yep, this is the one that could have been so much better. Three Billboards is a great movie about the destructive power of grief, and a great movie about a woman raging against an uncaring patriarchal order (the dentist scene is an especially wonderful moment in this vein), a great movie about family violence, even, and a totally clueless movie about racism and police violence. Yeah, maybe it’s cathartic seeing a black billboard painter fearlessly face down a racist cop in the middle of nowhere, but it’s not believable. Mildred uses black people as goads and as props, to needle the police and to justify her crusade. This would be great commentary if Three Billboards seemed at all aware that this was what she was doing, but instead it mostly falls into the same trap as its protagonist. I went into Three Billboards wanting to love it unreservedly, and if McDonagh had been a little more realistic about his ambitions for the film, I’m sure I would have.

7. Call Me by Your Name

Look, I don’t want to tell anyone how to do their job, and even if I did I don’t think the casting director for Call Me by Your Name would listen, because it scored one acting Oscar nomination and could conceivably have had two more. But, Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer don’t look 17 and 24 years old respectively (the ages of their characters in the book Call Me is adapted from), they look respectively younger and much older, and while I don’t really think Call Me is a story about sexual predation, that’s a lot harder to reconcile with what’s actually onscreen than it needed to be. I don’t blame anyone for being uncomfortable with this movie, and it’s too bad because it really is beautiful and touching otherwise.

6. Phantom Thread

That’s a hell of a thing for Paul Thomas Anderson to spring on his audience right at the end of his movie, isn’t it? (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, trust me, just watch the movie. It’s worth seeing and it still hasn’t made its budget back.) You could reasonably accuse Phantom Thread of dragging for much of its runtime (my parents almost walked out of it from sheer boredom) but if you watch carefully, it’s always laying the groundwork for that one ridiculous moment. Side note: I saw that Jennifer Lawrence didn’t like this movie, which is funny because it’s about exactly the same thing as mother!.

5. Lady Bird

lady snow’s Best Picture for 2017, and with good reason. I’ll let her tell you about it.

“I liked when Lady Bird dove out of the car, obviously. She’s a character with a lot of spirit, and I definitely relate to her from my own time growing up. And I appreciated the way the movie handled depicting a dysfunctional family. Just because you’re dysfunctional doesn’t mean you don’t still love each other a lot, and this family clearly did.”

4. Get Out

Definitely one of the smartest films nominated for an Oscar in 2017. If I have a complaint, it’s that I didn’t find Get Out as scary as some of the other great horror movies of the year (Raw or It Comes at Night to name a couple) but it’s disturbing on another level and it does what I like most in a horror flick or thriller, manipulating the tropes of the genre to explore some deeper aspect of human experience, in the manner of recent classics like The VVitch or It Follows.

3. Dunkirk

Dunkirk, on the other hand, is precisely and perfectly executed real-life horror story where the horror is the entire message. Every aspect of Nolan’s production is fine-tuned to create maximum anxiety, including the odd-sounding but deadly effective story structure. I saw Drew Magary joke over on Deadspin that they forgot to write a screenplay for this movie, but while obviously Dunkirk doesn’t have the ornate dialogue of Call Me by Your Name or the exquisite character development of Lady Bird, I think Dunkirk‘s carefully sequenced cliffhangers are their own sort of great writing.

2. The Shape of Water

Guys, go see The Shape of Water, but please don’t take your kids. Some parents a few seats over from lady snow and I did, and it was deeply, deeply uncomfortable. Fortunately, I quickly forgot they were there, because The Shape of Water is a thoroughly immersive spectacle that never loses its human scale even though probably the most important character isn’t human and, um, has scales. Anyway, The Shape of Water was clearly made with so much care and love, and makes Sally Hawkins having a relationship with a fish man not just believable but totally compelling.

1. Mudbound

I Can’t Believe You’re Doing This Shit Again, Can’t You Just Pick From The Real Nominees Like A Normal Person: It’s my post series and I’ll do what I want.

No One’s Watching The Oscars Tonight To Find Out What You Think: Okay. I know. Fine. The actual predictions then.

Will Win/Should Win: The Shape of Water. This is so far from a sure thing, with all the hardware that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has picked up this awards season. I see Best Picture this year as eventually a two-horse race, and you can definitely make the case that Three Billboards should be favored, but in the end I have to trust the same gut that told me Moonlight last year and Spotlight two years ago. I just don’t believe the Academy will choose a film with Three Billboards‘ delirious highs but numerous glaring issues over a rock-solid, attentively crafted and deeply moving story like The Shape of Water.

Upset Special Two-For One: Lady BirdGet Out. A lot of people who should know better are already talking themselves into a Get Out win. That’s likely to end in disappointment, but here’s the case both for both Get Out and Lady Bird: They’ve got directing, acting, and screenplay nominations. They’ve got substantial campaigns behind them, and plenty of popular support. And maybe the changing membership of the Academy makes it less like the Golden Globes and the guild awards. Both films are still pretty big long shots, in my opinion. If Lady Bird in particular wins, it’s probably going to mean I was wrong about a lot of other awards.

But What About: No, sorry, I think Dunkirk‘s fantastic, but it’s not going to happen. No, not even if it wins Best Editing.

make it snow is an alot of beer who’s watched alot of movies. Did you know that the red carpet is red so it won’t show bloodstains when Michael Shannon murders someone? Anyway, enjoy the show!

What’s that? I didn’t do original art for all the movies? I promise it’s coming, in a recap post after the awards.

0 0 votes
Article Rating
makeitsnowondem
make it snow is an alot of beer. He is also a Broncos fan living in Denver.
Subscribe
Notify of
415 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Spur

Best part of every Oscars is the ” In Memoriam”. It’s the best warped popularity contest.

Gratliff

Had a chance to hear an acceptance speech from a porg and they fucked it up

WCS

Dunkirk’s gonna clean up, eh?

Spur

Nazis are big in Hollywood

WCS

In Charlottesville, too.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

No; they left a lot of junk on the beach and a bunch is still there.

Col. Duke LaCross

Blade Runner got fucking robbed. I don’t think I’ve ever seen or heard a movie quite like that before.

Gratliff

Those Rocky clips remind me of the time the Eagles won the Super Bowl

Brick Meathook

Here’s Oscar winner Dame Helen Mirren’s ass:
comment image

theeWeeBabySeamus

9/10
Would spank.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

How dare you

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

When Uncle Ed saw Get Out’s movie poster, he thought it was a re-enactment of when he said “Jim Brown is a great football player”

Gratliff

Was Icarus good or is this a “Fuck Russia amirite?” pick?

herodotus450

comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

JustStopDude

Why is it that in movies, if there is a military depiction, everyone is snarky as hell to their superiors?

Like right in their faces or obviously in ear shot. Its so fucking cliched…I blame the original “MASH” movie…which by the way, is superior to the show in every single way.

herodotus450

How am I supposed to fetishize the concept of chain-of-command and use it as the tentpole for my whole political platform though?

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Jimmy Kimmel epitomizes the entertainment industry. He’s (+/-) ok and therefore the very best they have to offer.

Gratliff

To think I can still remember him as the guy doing punch up on Win Ben Stein’s Money, meaning he’s at least as good as Nixon.

comment image

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

Cousin Sal can eat shit though

Unsurprised

I regret that I can only give this one +

herodotus450

I’m sorry Ben, it says “Moops” right here on the card.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

herodotus450

I hope that’s not an oil-based lubricant.

theeWeeBabySeamus

I hope she doesn’t have a mouthful of straw.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

Spur

Grandma looks lost

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

herodotus450

[zooms in on date]
Oh.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

See; he ran in there.

Spur

Logan Lucky was robbed of all categories.

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

Three Dildos in Chesterfield, MO was better

herodotus450

Three dildos in Chester Field and Mo? Who had the third one?

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

A sherm-ridden tony la russa

herodotus450

If a native american woman ever wins an oscar, I hope she has some unknown white guy to accept the award for her.

Unsurprised

I have a better chance of shitting out an Oscar right now than an indigenous woman of any kind winning an Oscar.

Gratliff

Was Three Billboards as good as Moon? I’m betting it wasn’t

Spur

comment image/revision/latest?cb=20170419084653

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Well, shit, snow, one bet down where you would have been in the money…

Spur

Yeah. Good for Sam Rockwell

Gratliff

Having seen only Get Out and not paying attention to most movies at a ll, it’s always interesting to see what they actually are. Shape of Water is apparently a reboot of Creature from teh Black Lagoon?

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Helen Mirren not included is very disappointing

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

In Buddy’s list of “50 Milifiest Ladies on Earth”? She’s on there

theeWeeBabySeamus

Damned right.

JustStopDude

I’m watching “Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets” because it is free on Amazon Prime.

I’m like 30 minutes into it. Its one of those movies you can see what they are trying to achieve except the casting is just bizarre.

I do not understand how someone thought Dane DeHaan would be an appropriate leading man. He tries to deliver his lines like a leading man and its like watching someone doing a moron version of Keanu Reeves.

Cara Delevingne appears like she always does…”serviceable”.

This movie suffers from what all movies today seem to suffer from and that is where the cast all do quips at each other. Every character is a smart ass. Its so damn lazy and it makes every character act and sound the same.

theeWeeBabySeamus

“He tries to deliver his lines like a leading man and its like watching someone doing a moron version of Keanu Reeves.”

I thought Keanu Reeves WAS the moron version of Keanu Reeves.

– Keanu Reeves

JustStopDude

Yeah it would be a good joke except this is really the only way to describe this guy’s acting. I don’t blame him because DeHaan has been good in other films.

Its really a bizarre casting choice.

theeWeeBabySeamus

It was still a good joke.

comment image
comment image
comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

Use your powers.

Gratliff

comment image

Gratliff

I’m just here for confused old white people fucking up the Best Picture presentation

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

Well, if you have to drink cheap vodka…

Unsurprised

I’m listening to a podcast episode about 70s leftist guerrillas in America and one of these white hippie dickheads talks about using orgies to smash monogamy and all that shit, and that “people who fuck together fight together.” It’s stupid, but funny enough that’s exactly what the Spartans thought, too. Philadelphia doesn’t mean asexual brotherly love.

JustStopDude

I have nothing but contempt for the assholes that made up the Weather Underground.

The whole “Day of Rage” thing is a perfect personification of all that is wrong with left wing politics in America.

Effectively a bunch of rich kids took over the SDS, destroying a nation wide organization that was organizing effectively so these kids could play insurgent. They destroyed downtown Chicago for no real effective gain and then all the rich kids got bailed out by their parents. These knuckle heads managed to turn this shit into successful academic careers while the minorities that got roped in with the fiasco typically got long term prison sentences or killed by the cops.

Their major claim to fame is they never killed anyone, which conveniently ignores the fact they killed three of their own in an illicit bomb factory that was being used to make explosives to take out an NCO family dance.

I love the fact they were going to protest the Vietnam War by killing service members and their families at a fucking dance, like these people had a fucking say in US foreign policy.

Unsurprised

White people suck.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

comment image

FUCKING IKEA.

JustStopDude

I really can’t get into the combine anymore. The whole thing is silly and depressing. Young men going up onto the block to be inspected and then bid on. And really, they are fighting for the chance to get a paycheck, when most really won’t make that much money and will end up with a lifetime of painful injuries.

In the same vein, I can’t get into the Oscars because I find myself wondering which one of the actors were raped to get their role.

I really miss being an ignorant kid.

Unsurprised

I really miss being an ignorant kid.

Same.

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

Kevin Spacey raped himself I thought

BrettFavresColonoscopy

“Wait, what’s the bad part?”
–Mike Mayock

Buddy Cole's Halftime Show

In honor of the latest Juventus docuseries, NetFlix has announced a new series “Gran Torino FC”.

In the first episode, club chairman Walt Kowalski wonders why there’s so many Guinea bastards on the team, and that cross-town rivals Juve look like a buncha Foot Locker queers in their kits.

Spur

I really hope the Cowboys take shaquem griffin in the 2nd round

Spur

so i put $10 on the Mets and Mariners to win it all. Mets pay out is $230 and Mariners is $440. that should keep me curious about assgrab baseball for 3 weeks.

ballsofsteelandfury

Apropos of nothing, I’m really glad the Eagles won the Super Bowl.

Unsurprised

Mmm.

comment image

Unsurprised

I want to hear the conversation between those parents and kids about Sally Hawkins’s daily masturbation routine in the opening montage, but more importantly I want to hear them explain fish sex and the retractable penis.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Lindsay Vonn is at the Oscars if anyone’s back still hurts.

Unsurprised

comment image

Senor Weaselo

LaGuardia shout-out! And the Sinatra kids hang their heads in shame.

herodotus450

The only Oscar I need
comment image

BrettFavresColonoscopy

But what about Mudbound?

Unsurprised

It’s quite appropriate.

Brick Meathook

comment image

Spur

Dunkirk got this in the bag.

theeWeeBabySeamus

Which one had William Motherfucking Smith in it?

-BeastmodeAteMyBaby

LemonJello

“It was me.”
-Jada Pinkett

ballsofsteelandfury

I wish I could like this more.

Spur
Spur

Folks. Dez caught it.

Brick Meathook

comment image

Fronkenshteen

Who’d you pick for Best Actor/Actress and Supporting Actor/Actress?

/Sincere apologies if you’ve covered that in previous posts.

Fronkenshteen

Thanks! I’m at work and will now try to win $ off my co-workers. Waitresses have cash!!

Spanky Datass

comment image

LemonJello

The Tomsula Saga ???

Col. Duke LaCross

Saw it at a Sundance premiere a few years ago. Rutger Hauer was there, and I don’t think that dude was acting in that movie.

Brick Meathook

comment image

LemonJello

The Young Andy Reid Chronicles

1 2 3 4