Oscar Night 2018 Open Thread

Good evening, Commentists! It’s Oscar night, and I’m here to set the stage for your finest cinematological dick jokes. Here are the nominees for Best Picture, ranked, and my predictions for which of them will actually win.

10. Darkest Hour

Impeccably acted and unexpectedly pretty to look at. There are no bad movies nominated for Best Picture, just great movies and good movies and movies I’m actually a little angry at for not being as good as they could have been, and Darkest Hour is just a good movie. It’s the year’s second-best film about the evacuation of Dunkirk, depicting an emotionally complex but morally sanitized Winston Churchill in one of his life’s more admirable moments.

9. The Post

Full marks to Stephen Spielberg and everyone else involved for turning this movie around extremely quickly. Spielberg got the film in March or so of 2017, and my first memory about The Post is being surprised to learn it existed, in November 2017 or so. It’s a smart, entertaining newsroom flick, not on the level of, say, Spotlight, but an achievement all the same.

8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This one, yep, this is the one that could have been so much better. Three Billboards is a great movie about the destructive power of grief, and a great movie about a woman raging against an uncaring patriarchal order (the dentist scene is an especially wonderful moment in this vein), a great movie about family violence, even, and a totally clueless movie about racism and police violence. Yeah, maybe it’s cathartic seeing a black billboard painter fearlessly face down a racist cop in the middle of nowhere, but it’s not believable. Mildred uses black people as goads and as props, to needle the police and to justify her crusade. This would be great commentary if Three Billboards seemed at all aware that this was what she was doing, but instead it mostly falls into the same trap as its protagonist. I went into Three Billboards wanting to love it unreservedly, and if McDonagh had been a little more realistic about his ambitions for the film, I’m sure I would have.

7. Call Me by Your Name

Look, I don’t want to tell anyone how to do their job, and even if I did I don’t think the casting director for Call Me by Your Name would listen, because it scored one acting Oscar nomination and could conceivably have had two more. But, Timothée Chalamet and Armie Hammer don’t look 17 and 24 years old respectively (the ages of their characters in the book Call Me is adapted from), they look respectively younger and much older, and while I don’t really think Call Me is a story about sexual predation, that’s a lot harder to reconcile with what’s actually onscreen than it needed to be. I don’t blame anyone for being uncomfortable with this movie, and it’s too bad because it really is beautiful and touching otherwise.

6. Phantom Thread

That’s a hell of a thing for Paul Thomas Anderson to spring on his audience right at the end of his movie, isn’t it? (If you don’t know what I’m talking about, trust me, just watch the movie. It’s worth seeing and it still hasn’t made its budget back.) You could reasonably accuse Phantom Thread of dragging for much of its runtime (my parents almost walked out of it from sheer boredom) but if you watch carefully, it’s always laying the groundwork for that one ridiculous moment. Side note: I saw that Jennifer Lawrence didn’t like this movie, which is funny because it’s about exactly the same thing as mother!.

5. Lady Bird

lady snow’s Best Picture for 2017, and with good reason. I’ll let her tell you about it.

“I liked when Lady Bird dove out of the car, obviously. She’s a character with a lot of spirit, and I definitely relate to her from my own time growing up. And I appreciated the way the movie handled depicting a dysfunctional family. Just because you’re dysfunctional doesn’t mean you don’t still love each other a lot, and this family clearly did.”

4. Get Out

Definitely one of the smartest films nominated for an Oscar in 2017. If I have a complaint, it’s that I didn’t find Get Out as scary as some of the other great horror movies of the year (Raw or It Comes at Night to name a couple) but it’s disturbing on another level and it does what I like most in a horror flick or thriller, manipulating the tropes of the genre to explore some deeper aspect of human experience, in the manner of recent classics like The VVitch or It Follows.

3. Dunkirk

Dunkirk, on the other hand, is precisely and perfectly executed real-life horror story where the horror is the entire message. Every aspect of Nolan’s production is fine-tuned to create maximum anxiety, including the odd-sounding but deadly effective story structure. I saw Drew Magary joke over on Deadspin that they forgot to write a screenplay for this movie, but while obviously Dunkirk doesn’t have the ornate dialogue of Call Me by Your Name or the exquisite character development of Lady Bird, I think Dunkirk‘s carefully sequenced cliffhangers are their own sort of great writing.

2. The Shape of Water

Guys, go see The Shape of Water, but please don’t take your kids. Some parents a few seats over from lady snow and I did, and it was deeply, deeply uncomfortable. Fortunately, I quickly forgot they were there, because The Shape of Water is a thoroughly immersive spectacle that never loses its human scale even though probably the most important character isn’t human and, um, has scales. Anyway, The Shape of Water was clearly made with so much care and love, and makes Sally Hawkins having a relationship with a fish man not just believable but totally compelling.

1. Mudbound

I Can’t Believe You’re Doing This Shit Again, Can’t You Just Pick From The Real Nominees Like A Normal Person: It’s my post series and I’ll do what I want.

No One’s Watching The Oscars Tonight To Find Out What You Think: Okay. I know. Fine. The actual predictions then.

Will Win/Should Win: The Shape of Water. This is so far from a sure thing, with all the hardware that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri has picked up this awards season. I see Best Picture this year as eventually a two-horse race, and you can definitely make the case that Three Billboards should be favored, but in the end I have to trust the same gut that told me Moonlight last year and Spotlight two years ago. I just don’t believe the Academy will choose a film with Three Billboards‘ delirious highs but numerous glaring issues over a rock-solid, attentively crafted and deeply moving story like The Shape of Water.

Upset Special Two-For One: Lady BirdGet Out. A lot of people who should know better are already talking themselves into a Get Out win. That’s likely to end in disappointment, but here’s the case both for both Get Out and Lady Bird: They’ve got directing, acting, and screenplay nominations. They’ve got substantial campaigns behind them, and plenty of popular support. And maybe the changing membership of the Academy makes it less like the Golden Globes and the guild awards. Both films are still pretty big long shots, in my opinion. If Lady Bird in particular wins, it’s probably going to mean I was wrong about a lot of other awards.

But What About: No, sorry, I think Dunkirk‘s fantastic, but it’s not going to happen. No, not even if it wins Best Editing.

make it snow is an alot of beer who’s watched alot of movies. Did you know that the red carpet is red so it won’t show bloodstains when Michael Shannon murders someone? Anyway, enjoy the show!

What’s that? I didn’t do original art for all the movies? I promise it’s coming, in a recap post after the awards.

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makeitsnowondem
make it snow is an alot of beer. He is also a Broncos fan living in Denver.
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Spur
Unsurprised

Why God Why

Spur

because you touch yourself

Unsurprised

This began long before I learned to do that.

Col. Duke LaCross

Kyle Orton digs this dude’s neckbeard skills.

WCS

Kyle Orton’s neckbeard just chugged a liter of Jack Daniels after seeing that hair.

Spur

more like chugged a liter of Evan Williams

Spur

that lady is hot! dimples. I love hand gestures honey

WCS

Cut your damn hair, jerk-off.

Romonobyl

And get a real job!

Spur

man buns are so 2014

JustStopDude

So this moronic space opera’s entire point is to teach one insanely unlikable guy that he needs to fuck a woman that he has no charisma with.

Planets are exploded….Rihanna is completely wasted…plot holes are made…all so one tool gets laid.

Sweet fucking Jesus this movie is right up there with Battlefield Earth…except at least that one is so “bad”, its entertaining.

$205 million spent and none of it on a casting director…or a script writer.

That is the fucking GDP of the Marshall Islands right there…

WCS

And people say the Oscars take too long.

Romonobyl

It’s like a commencement ceremony with even more failed attempts at humor.

rockingdog

I’m out.
Last funny:

The squirrels were quiet today. Too quiet.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Spur

Ryan Seacrest isnt gay?

Mr. Ayo

I mean, he did always say “Seacreast, out!”

JustStopDude

Not sure, but its well known he is 5ft nothing.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

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...

Typing his name into Google the second suggestion I got was “Ryan Seacrest sexual predator” but the results don’t talk about men or boys, so my sources say no.

...

My favorite description of Ryan Seacrest is “the world’s most replaceable man.”

...

What up, fuckos?

Spur

getting shitfaced on cheap vodka. You?

...

All the times I’ve had cheap vodka I’ve ended up puking and/or shitting on the floor, so not that.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Should be both.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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rockingdog

Ok guys….ill bite. Who is the Oscar guy? Is he gay or something? Wait….. did he die?

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Romonobyl

BB8 really let himself go.

Spur

It’s a Dunkirk night folks.

Romonobyl

Great movie, doesn’t stand a chance.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Not with spellcheck.

Spur

TEXAS PRIDE!

Romonobyl

Tres Billboards will win, it’s a lock. Tell you why I think so later.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Brick Meathook

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Spur

Spiderman is a wanker?

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

No; he is much more flexible.

WCS

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JustStopDude

Oh fuck this movie.

So these savages somehow survive their planet literally getting exploded into bits by living on a half destroyed space ship they managed to get working in like 20 seconds.

This is M Night Shamalamadingdong stupid twist.

Spur

check out the gams on the bassist. HOT

Spur

Sufjan Stevens should have won a Nobel for this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJJT00wqlOo

Spur

can i feel your titties?….Sorry, Sorry, am sorry

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Unsurprised

She’s friendly.

JustStopDude

I am constantly amazed how every single advanced civilization in these epic sci-fi movies can travel the stars but always choose to use hand to hand combat tools like space spears.

Senor Weaselo

Only a couple have space spears!

Spur

gay and hispanic? Pence is upset……….and aroused

WCS

A gay Mexican? Oh, Trump’s going to be sooooooo pissed.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Gratliff

I’ll never forget the time Kobe won an Oscar and thanked a brand

— Drew Magary (@drewmagary) March 5, 2018

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Spur

TIm Duncan is totally winning an Oscar next year for a documentary on LARPers.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Gratliff

Kobe Bryant in the year of our lord 2018? Fucking BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

WCS

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Spur

tell me how my ass taste Shaq! – Kobe

Senor Weaselo

Okay, seriously?

Gratliff

That was so rough. Hammil should have just started busting out the Joker Trump tweets.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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Gratliff

…Did they actually retcon Dan being fucking dead in Roseanne or is it just a window into her real life insanity?

Col. Duke LaCross

Jury is still out.

Spur

Roseanne was great back in day.

Col. Duke LaCross

Allison Janney is a national treasure.

Spur

she was great in Private Parts

Col. Duke LaCross

And “Drop Dead Gorgeous”

Unsurprised

Laurie Metcalf was better.

Brick Meathook

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theeWeeBabySeamus

Two Thousand Maniacs? Amateurs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TITim3AJYsk

WCS

O/U on Trump complaining the lack of any American films in the International Films category?

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

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WCS

West Side Story sucked so much butt.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Turn the other cheek.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

*Either an ass joke or an East Side joke.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Blade Runner 2049 was a piece of shit.

JustStopDude

YOU SHUT YOUR WHORE MOUTH!

BrettFavresColonoscopy

I apologize for nothing. It was pretty but an hour too long and sucked aside from its awesome visuals.

JustStopDude

I hate “Prisoners”.

I just found it depressing as fuck.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

BLASPHEMY! KIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIILL HIM!!

Gratliff

Best Picture imo
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rockingdog

Another funny:

A mute woman falls for an all star in Guillermo Del Toro’s THE SHAPE OF AN L ON HER FOREHEAD

WCS

Trump’s gonna tweet the hell out of this segment.

rockingdog

Found a funny:

[BORAT VOICE]
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Spur

Shape of Water aka Fish Sticks the Movie

WCS

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JustStopDude

This Valeria movie is amazing. The two main actors seem to have negative charisma.

Its like a black hole of screen presence.

Its like the Fifth Element, only no one is likable in the least.

Brick Meathook

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