Welcome to late January! It’s a time we at DFO most associate with bitching that the goddamned Patriots are in the stupid fucking Super Bowl again, but that’s not all these bleak winter weeks have to offer. There are also movie awards! Balls of Steel is already ably handling the greatest awards show on earth, and for me, it’s the season to scrutinize the Academy Awards nominations with the perspective that only I can bring to the table: The perspective of a man with no formal film education and no practical film experience who just watches a bunch of movies. Here are your 2019 Oscar nominees.

EDIT: I initially failed to explain what the *’s are for. They’re for the movies I haven’t seen yet.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Border*
Mary, Queen of Scots*
Vice

The Makeup Artists and Hairstylists branch does what it wants, including notoriously never using all five of its available nominations.  That’s okay, because it did the right thing this year and nominated Vice, a film with makeup work that’s transformative in the same way that last year’s winner Darkest Hour‘s was, and probably with a higher degree of difficulty.

In the cold: I’d have thought Black Panther and Bohemian Rhapsody* would be strong contenders here, but I don’t think there are any terrible snubs in this category.

Party crashers: Border*, a Swedish film about a customs agent who can smell emotions, definitely qualifies as a surprise. Border was also Sweden’s submission for the Foreign Language category, but it didn’t make the shortlist. It sounds utterly bizarre and I can’t wait to see it.

COSTUME DESIGN:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs*
Black Panther
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns*
Mary, Queen of Scots*

Very few people are as good at anything as Sandy Powell is at designing costumes, and she’s twice-nominated this year, for Favourite and Mary Poppins*.

In the cold: There are always more movies with great costumes than there are spots for them in the Oscars, but of particular note,Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindlewald* was shut out of the category, two years after the first Fantastic Beasts film won this award.

I’d prefer: The Nutcracker and the Four Realms was not a very good movie, but it was a very pretty movie and the costumes, from Mad Max designer Jenny Beavan, especially deserved recognition.

PRODUCTION DESIGN:

Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man*
Mary Poppins Returns*
Roma

Black Panther‘s Wakanda is so beautiful they used it again extensively in Avengers: Infinity War, and it’s the only sci-fi entry this year in a field otherwise filled with historical settings. The voters do seem to like spacecraft sets, so First Man* is here, but they don’t like spacecraft sets enough to have included The Cloverfield Paradox, which overcame some very solid set design to rank as the worst movie I saw this year.

I’d prefer: Maybe not exactly a preference over the nominated films, but I do want to give another shout-out to The Nutcracker and the Four Realms–I promise it’ll be the last one. Nutcracker‘s sets look so good that it feels like most of the rest of the movie doesn’t deserve to be taking place on them. As for the movies I’d really like to have seen here, Cold War‘s survey of mid-20th century Europe, First Reformed‘s modest but detailed Rust Belt Gothic sets, and Annihilation‘s beautifully unnerving alien dreamscapes top the list.

ORIGINAL SCORE:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
If Beale Street Could Talk*
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns*

I’ll need to refresh myself on the music from Black Panther, but I thought the scores of both BlacKkKlansman and Isle of Dogs were instantly memorable.

I’d prefer: If anything’s missing here, I think it’s Annihilation, which has some pretty out-there music, but not necessarily more so than past nominees Jackie or Sicario.

ORIGINAL SONG:

“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“I’ll Fight” from RBG*
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns*
“Shallow” from A Star is Born
“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from The Ballad of Buster Scruggs*

I’d prefer: After The Coup’s infectious “OYAHYTT” made the Original Song shortlist, I briefly dared to hope that Sorry To Bother You wouldn’t be completely shut out of the Oscars. No such luck.

VISUAL EFFECTS:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin*
First Man*
Ready Player One*
Solo: A Star Wars Story*

This is the longest I’ve ever waited to see a Star Wars movie. It’s been on Netflix for a bit and I still haven’t seen it. It just felt like there was a total absence of buzz around Solo; I don’t remember if anyone I know saw it, and I definitely can’t remember anyone ever expressing an opinion about it, which was frankly a bit of a mercy after all the opinions about The Last Jedi. Does anyone know if Solo was good?

I did hear plenty about Ready Player One, on the other hand, and it’s probably the thing on this list that I’m most dreading having to watch. I’m an insufferable nerd myself, but man, there’s a limit.

Party crasher: I didn’t see either Christopher Robin* or Ready Player One* getting any nominations, but then this hasn’t been the biggest year for CG-heavy blockbusters.

In the cold: If you’d told me that Black Panther would have seven nominations, I’d have been certain this would be one of them.

I’d prefer: Looking at these early categories is really doing a lot to remind me how many things I liked about Annihilation. It wasn’t that long ago that you could get a visual effects nomination just by having an awesome bear. (The nomination of Christopher Robin* suggests this is still part of the formula, but the exclusion of Paddington 2* is another obvious counterpoint.)

SOUND EDITING:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
A Quiet Place
Roma

Outstanding sound design has been a consistent feature of both Alfonso Cuarón’s and Damien Chazelle’s work, so it’s not a surprise to see Roma and First Man nominated in both sound categories.

I’d prefer: Ideally, there would have been room for a second horror movie here. Again I’ve got to point to Annihilation,which is full to the brim with creepy, otherworldly noises.

SOUND MIXING:

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody*
First Man*
Roma
A Star is Born

I’d prefer: The prudent thing to do here would probably be to reserve judgment until I’ve seen all of these movies, but instead I’m just going to ask the question: Where the hell did A Quiet Place go? I definitely understand the need to clear a space for A Star is Born, a terrific-sounding film where the overall mix is more important than the design of any of the individual pieces, but arguably that’s just as true for A Quiet Place, which just relies so much on its careful calibration of volume.

ANIMATED SHORT:

Animal Behaviour*
Bao*
Late Afternoon*
One Small Step
Weekends*

The short films I was able to watch before the nominations mostly didn’t turn out to be the short films that were actually nominated, but I did see One Small Step, and thought it was very sweet and moving. From the shortlist, I also caught Lost & Found, a slight but adorable tearjerker, and Pépé le Morse, which I think could best be described as “quietly disturbing,” and I still haven’t decided whether I think that’s a compliment or not. In any case, Pépé‘s exclusion means that as far as I know, only one nominated film includes a scene of someone with a funerary urn getting chased down by a family member.

In the cold: I’ve only seen the non-interactive, theatrical version of Google VR short Age of Sail, but I was hoping to find a way to watch it in VR if it got the nomination. I expected it would, because it’s very pretty, and because it stars Ian McShane, and because Google’s much less ambitious VR short Pearl was nominated in 2017.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT:

Black Sheep*
End Game*
Lifeboat*
A Night at the Garden*
Period. End of Sentence.*

I’d prefer: So, look: I was really hoping My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes would be nominated, because despite the goofy title it really is a nice, thoughtful little piece, and also because I really, really wanted some poor Oscars presenter to have to say My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes, and maybe even have to announce that the winner of this award was My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes. Unfortunately, that’s just not the world we live in.

LIVE ACTION SHORT:

Detainment*
Fauve
Marguerite*
Mother
Skin*

I’d prefer: Other than My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes, probably the biggest disappointment to me in all the nomination announcements was the exclusion of short-lister Caroline in this category. Like some of my past favorites in this category, it takes a very simple premise (here, “woman leaves children in car”) and mines it for every possible bit of dramatic tension. It presents a harrowing picture of ugly self-righteousness that will really stick with you, and I’d replace Mother with it in a heartbeat.

CINEMATOGRAPHY:

Cold War
The Favourite
Never Look Away*
Roma
A Star Is Born

The cinematography category is real, real weird this year. Perennial nominees Emmanuel Lubezki (The Revenant) and Roger Deakins (Blade Runner 2049) didn’t shoot anything this year, leaving something of a vacuum at what would usually be the top. At least in part due to this, three of the nominated films are also Foreign Language Film nominees—Poland’s Cold War, Germany’s Never Look Away*, and Mexico’s Roma. The cinematographers themselves aren’t totally unknown quantities, but I’ll get more into that when I look into the category in depth next month.

I’d prefer: First Reformed, with its restrained camera and flawlessly composed shots, is an easy choice for me in place of A Star Is Born. I would also have liked to see Black Panther cinematographer Rachel Morrison get a nod, and I’d be willing to sacrifice The Favourite for it.

EDITING:

BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Vice

Based on what I’ve seen so far, this was not really a year for flashy editing. I didn’t see many long takes in the style of The Revenant, or impressively rapid and rhythmic cuts like the ones featured in Baby Driver last year. Vice, in fact, was pretty meandering and messy, so I’m surprised to see it here.

In the cold: This reaction piece. Good grief, get a goddamned editor, snow. Also Roma, which could have given producer/director/writer/cinematographer/editor a record-breaking five nominations for the same film.

I’d prefer: Cold War, over any and all comers. Cold War is a sweeping, years-long love story told in a lean 98 minutes, but editor Jaroslaw Kaminski never seems to be in a hurry. Film students could learn a lot about when not to cut from this one. First Reformed, for me, deserves recognition for similar reasons, though it’s not quite as pared-down. And here’s a dark horse for you: Bird Box. It’s probably already become more internet meme than film, and I’m not even 100% sure it would be eligible, but I found it tense, scary, and near-perfectly paced from start to finish.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:

Capernaum (Lebanon)*
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)*
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)*

I’ve kind of neglected the lower-tier feature film categories so far this year; I haven’t seen a single foreign language film that wasn’t on this list, so I can’t really comment on anything left out. Roma, with 10 nominations including Best Picture pretty clearly has a stranglehold on this prize, which is a shame because Cold War is really special, and its three nominations would otherwise have been headline news.

ANIMATED FEATURE:

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai*
Ralph Breaks the Internet*
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse*

This list includes the feature film I’m most excited to see, Into the Spider-Verse*, which I’ve heard more than one person this year call not just the best animated movie, but the best movie, period. I didn’t even feel that strongly about Kubo and the Two Strings.

In the cold: Aardman Animations, best known as the people who brought you Wallace and Gromit, are usually competitive in this category, but their new feature Early Man missed out.

I’d prefer: The Grinch, a surprisingly fresh take on the classic tale of burglary and cardiomegaly. The animation in The Grinch is so kinetic and fun, and it’s got, in my opinion, a much tighter story than Incredibles 2, which feels kind of like two halves of different parables stuck together.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:

Free Solo*
Hale County This Morning, This Evening*
Minding the Gap*
Of Fathers and Sons*
RBG*

That’s right, I’ve seen precisely none of these so far. I also haven’t seen anything else from the shortlist, or in fact any new feature-length documentaries at all, including Won’t You Be My Neighbor?*, which I vaguely expected would be nominated, and which I get the impression that a lot of people less vaguely expected would be nominated.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs*
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
If Beale Street Could Talk*
A Star Is Born

In the cold: Black Panther is one of two Best Picture nominees without a writing nomination, which, okay. It’s a superhero movie.

I’d prefer: There might be a place here for Dear Simon. It’s a crowd-pleaser, not a challenging film by any stretch of the imagination, but as teen relationship comedies go it’s well-written, smart and poignant.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book*
Roma
Vice

Party crasher: There must be a lot of general goodwill for Adam McKay and Vice. I liked the movie more than most, but even I would admit that its storytelling approach is fairly scattershot.

I’d prefer: Sorry To Bother You shouldn’t just be nominated in this category, it should win it. The sprawling, freewheeling sci-fi allegory was the most impressive thing I saw in 2018, and somehow it’s Boots Riley’s debut as both director and screenwriter. Vice could go, and while I’m trying not to prejudge, I suspect Green Book* could too. Support the Girls would fit in just fine to round out the category.

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book*
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?*
Sam Rockwell, Vice

In the cold: Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy*, was the popular prediction for Rockwell’s spot, but Beautiful Boy came up empty-handed altogether.

I’d prefer: Armie Hammer, Sorry to Bother You. Hammer isn’t just an impossibly earnest, coked-out CEO in this film, he’s an avatar for the idea of rational-market based solutions taken to a completely irrational extreme. His screen time is fairly limited, but he’s fascinating to watch, particularly in Sorry‘s best, most totally bonkers scene. I don’t understand why Michael B. Jordan, one of the absolute best parts of Black Panther, isn’t nominated (along with the cinematographer and the visual effects crew) if it’s a genuine Best Picture nominee. And if you’re going to pick a supporting actor from Vice, I don’t really get the choice of Sam Rockwell’s George W. Bush over Steve Carell as Donald Rumsfeld, who has a much bigger impact on the story and also displays a lot more range.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Amy Adams, Vice
Marina de Tavira, Roma
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk*
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Party crasher: Marina de Tavira, who didn’t pop off the screen for me the first time I watched Roma.

In the cold: Emily Blunt was excellent (and Screen Actors Guild-nominated) in A Quiet Place.

I’d prefer: I don’t necessarily think any of these actresses ought to be replaced, but it would have been nice to see some recognition for Haley Lu Richardson’s bubbly, goofy assistant manager in Support the Girls, or Tessa Thompson’s implacable activist in Sorry to Bother You, even though (or because) neither’s the sort of role that really gets nominated for an acting Oscar.

ACTOR:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate*
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book*

Party crasher: I have never even heard of At Eternity’s Gate* but I’ll be happy to watch Willem Dafoe at his best.

I’d prefer: Ethan Hawke, First Reformed. As good as this category appears to be, I can’t believe Hawke wasn’t able to crack it with a devastating performance like that. It would have been a much bigger disappointment, of course, if the Globes and other awards ceremonies hadn’t already encouraged me to manage my expectations. Bradley Cooper, as always, was stellar, but I’d still pass on him for Hawke or any of the following: John David Washington in BlacKkKlansman, Lakeith Stanfield in Sorry to Bother You, or Jeffrey Wright in Hold the Dark, which I’m beginning to suspect almost no one saw. Brady Jandreau could be in this conversation as well for The Rider.

ACTRESS:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife*
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?*

The headliner here is Aparicio, a first-time actress and the first indigenous woman to be nominated for Best Actress. The other four nominees were widely considered to be locked in before the announcement, but Aparicio was no sure thing.

In the cold: Once again, Emily Blunt was the fifth SAG nominee for her lead role in Mary Poppins Returns*, but as with A Quiet Place, she didn’t have the votes. I’ve been saying that I think the Academy’s push to increase the diversity of its membership has broadly worked as intended to increase the diversity of voting outcomes, and here’s another instance where I believe that was the case.

I’d prefer: First and foremost, Joanna Kulig in Cold War. After watching both of them in the same day, I think A Star Is Born fails to stack up in comparison to Cold War, which is strikingly similar in story and structure, in just about every respect. The lead actresses are pretty closely matched, but Kulig has a simmering, almost threatening energy that for me puts her over the top. Toni Collette’s electrifying and terrifying turn in Hereditary must be mentioned here, and for a less heralded performance, I’ll turn once again to Support the Girls, which Regina Hall carried with a nuanced, emotionally intelligent performance.

DIRECTOR:

Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Paweł Pawlikowski, Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Adam McKay, Vice

Here’s the only category where I’ve seen every film, and I still don’t feel fully prepared to pick a winner. I do feel it’s a very strong group, though as many have rightly pointed out, it includes no women. Chloé Zhao absolutely has a case for her somber, beautiful The Rider; I’ve heard Leave No Trace*, Can You Ever Forgive Me?*, and You Were Never Really Here* mentioned as possibilities for breaking up the boys’ club too, but I can’t personally compare them to the nominees at present.

Party crasher: Pawlikowski was one of the morning’s biggest shock announcements, but he’s thoroughly deserving.

In the cold: Bradley Cooper just missed a chance to be nominated four times for the same movie, as producer, writer, actor and director. (Cuarón managed it as producer, writer, director and cinematographer.)

I’d prefer: Boots Riley, Sorry To Bother You, and Paul Schrader, First Reformed. McKay is the easy pick to replace, as Vice just didn’t feel nearly as well put-together as The Big Short. If pressed right now, I think I’d drop Lanthimos too, but that’s a difficult call to make.

BEST PICTURE:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody*
The Favourite
Green Book*
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Party crashers: None of these nominees is a surprise as such, but Black Panther deserves to be mentioned here as the first superhero movie to be nominated for Best Picture, an achievement that eluded Christopher Nolan’s smart, stylish The Dark Knight, the absolutely hilarious Deadpool, and the Very Serious Western Film Logan.

In the cold: Most observers are singling out If Beale Street Could Talk* as the number one snub here. Crazy Rich Asians* briefly looked like it had some momentum; I’m guessing it just got lost in the shuffle.

I’d prefer: The Academy used eight of ten Best Picture slots again this year, which means I don’t even have to knock anything off the list to add my two favorites of the year, First Reformed and my current personal Best Picture, Sorry to Bother You. I’ll go a step farther and remove Black Panther, which is not bad by any measure but also isn’t nearly as good as Cold War. Depending how Bohemian Rhapsody* and Green Book* turn out, I might be tempted to replace one or both with The Rider or Support the Girls.