Never Mind, I’ll Do It Myself: Your 2020 Houston Texans Preview

There is a running gag at Door Flies Open that the Houston Texans are a fictional NFL team, so nondescript and devoid of character that they recede into the background and are rendered invisible.

Well, Texans coach and GM Bill O’Brien must be a fan of DFO, because he seems to be trying to will this conceit into existence. O’Brien added control of the front office to his duties as coach in June 2019 after the Texans fired GM Brian Gaine. He promptly did the following:

• Traded DE Jadeveon Clowey to the Seahawks for a bag of magic beans.
• Acquired OT Laremy Tunsil from the Dolphins for a king’s ransom.
• Having no choice given Tunsil’s leverage based on the trade assets, gave him a contract far above his level of play.

The Texans’ ownership was so impressed with O’Brien’s flawless resource management that they rewarded him with the official title of GM in January 2020. Newly emboldened, O’Brien crafted his masterpiece, trading WR D’Andre Hopkins to the Cardinals for a ’73 Ford Pinto and a Subway punch card with eight holes punched.

All of this is to say that Bill O’Brien has decided that Deshaun Watson is good enough that he doesn’t need any other players to win. And he’s betting his season on this crazy experiment. Why? Well, maybe he wants to challenge himself. Maybe he wants to challenge Watson. And maybe he’s just watched Baseball Bugs too many times.

The thing is…maybe Deshaun Watson IS good enough.

There is only one QB in the NFL that I’d feel comfortable saying is definitively better than Watson, and that’s Patrick Mahomes, who is an alien and shouldn’t count. Watson has excellent production, he’s big in big moments, and that team would follow him off a cliff. Is there enough on the rest of the team? Let’s have a look.

OFFENSE

The Texans may have traded Hopkins, but a WR corps of Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Kenny Stills, and Randall Cobb is probably still enough, especially if Fuller can stay on the field and Cooks doesn’t have any anvils fall on his head. RB David Johnson (acquired in the Hopkins deal) is past his prime, but may have enough left in a better situation than he had last year with the Cardinals. I mean, Carlos Hyde ran for 1,070 yards as a Texan last year. CARLOS HYDE. The team also returns the entire starting OL from last year, a first in Bill O’Brien’s tenure. The line ranked 8th in pass blocking last year according to ESPN, and another year of familiarity can’t hurt.

DEFENSE

This is less promising. The Texans’ defense once boasted big names like Clowney, Mario Williams, Johnathan Joseph, A.J. Bouye, and DeMeco Ryans. Now the headliners are a declining Whitney Mercilus and a still great but oft-injured J.J. Watt. The linebackers are average at best, and two first-round busts (Gareon Conley and Vernon Hargreaves) currently sit atop the CB depth chart. On the other hand, the team is high on three defensive rookies. NT Ross Blacklock is expected to start, and CB John Reid and DL Jacob Martin are earning raves in camp. The defense fell from 7th in DVOA for 2018 to 26th in 2019, so maybe a dead cat bounce gives them a boost.

SCHEDULE

The Texans have the 8th hardest schedule in the NFL this year, based on their opponents’ records in 2019. They face the AFC North this year, which boasts three possible playoff teams. It doesn’t start promisingly, as their first three games are against the Chiefs, Ravens, and Steelers. Oof. It gets a little better after that, but that also depends on how you see the AFC South this year. The Titans were encouraged by their playoff success and ran it all back, the Colts are looking for big things after acquiring QB Philip Rivers, and the Jags are trying to defy the laws of physics by going 0-17 in only 16 games.

OUTLOOK

Everyone is cool on the Texans this season based on Bill O’Brien’s wacky roster construction and expectations for the Titans and Colts. But as bad a GM as O’Brien has been, he’s been a very good head coach, and has won his division with worse teams than this one. I think the receivers are fine, and Deshaun Watson can work with them. I see the Texans and Titans as co-favorites in the division with the Colts just a hair behind. But will they win the division?

PREDICTION

9-7, AFC South Champions. Sorry, I’m not betting on Ryan Tannehill.