Welcome one and all to the last football game of the year! How we got here I don’t know. Every year it’s a gotdamn blur of games, stats, dumb jokes, fantasy disappointment and open threads. And every year I drag my sorry ass back for more. Why? Because there’s nothing quite like it and you commenters make it so worthwhile with your varied shenanigans. So raise a glass to yourselves, you’re good peoples.

To The Game!

Rams/Bengals:

-In each of Cincy’s wins in the playoffs they’ve needed a turnover in the 4th quarter to get over the hump. It’s probably about that time of the game that Stafford realizes the magnitude of this tilt and complies. I really do think he’ll throw one pick.

-Most observers see this as a game that will finish at around a 51 total or so but I’d just like to point out that there are three ex-Giants cornerbacks playing in this game. Yes, Grant Haley, Eli Apple and Dont’e Deayon (more about him later) are New York castoffs. That spells great news for each team’s passing game.

-Terrible Near Symmetry: Let’s get it out of the way-the Rams finished 3rd in sacks with 50 and Burrow was the most sacked qb in the league, eating dirt 51 times. Of course Aaron Donald is a monster and Von Miller has 7 sacks in the last 7 games and then there’s Leonard Floyd and the underrated Greg Gaines, etc. If the Titans got 9 sacks, oh lord, start praying…

-Digging Into The Numbers: Since week 15-Titans game excluded-Burrow has been sacked on average 2.6 times per game. The O-line has improved but their early season struggles have warped the numbers. Will the Rams get to Burrow? Yes. But to me, the Titans game is an outlier.

-I Can’t Get It Out Of my Head: I noted during the last few games that Burrow will always take the sack and I think it’s a deliberate strategy on his part to avoid turnovers. PFF backs me up on this, noting that he as an extremely low (2.3%) number with respect to ‘turnover-worthy’ throws. If the Bengals line does struggle the Rams aren’t going to ‘wear down’ Burrow and force him into dicey throws-he just doesn’t play that way.

-The Passing Game: Just book Kupp for 100+ yards and a TD  or two. As for OBJ? Yeah, he’s probably good for a TD and 90 because Eli Apple.

-The Passing Game Part Deux: As good as the Rams trio is I think Cincy’s is better. Ramsey is good of course but has been burned by top end talent-Mike Evans and Deebo had their way with him and I expect Chase will have success as well. Ramsey gives up 63% catch rate because he now follows opposing wr’s into and out of the slot (that inflates numbers) so there’s nothing special about his coverage skill metrics.

The Passing Game Part Trois: Here’s where things get interesting. If Ramsey shadows Chase then cb Darious Williams will be playing a combo of Higgins and Boyd on the outside. But if 6′ 4″, 215 pound Higgins lines up in the slot (208 times this year) he should be defended by Dont’e Deayon. The latter is listed as 5’9″, 170 but as a free agent at Giants camp he was measured as 5’5″. That is a nightmarish mismatch if Bengals OC Brian Callahan can get it to work.

-Speaking of Nightmares: Anyone recall McVay’s complete inability to change his game plan the last time he wandered into a Super Bowl? Contrast that to Zac Taylor’s halftime adjustments and the way that Burrow and Co. seem to be comfortable playing from behind.

-One More Thing: Teams favored between 4 to 5.5 points in this game sport a 1-5 W/L record when the final whistle blows.

Have a Shit Ton O’Fun in the comments. Love ya.