Hey all and welcome to the last part of my 2022 NFL fantasy preview. Labor Day is nearly upon us and the season is right around the corner, which means the football season is right around the corner.

Holy shit do we have updates:

1. Um…Brian Robinson got shot. Apparently it’s not life threatening, nor should it be long term, but it required surgery. I had Robinson as supplanting Antonio Gibson as the RB1, and I am still hopeful that it will happen, but I am now out on drafting anyone in the Washington backfield.
2. Do not draft Zeke Elliot at his current price. LT Tyron Smith, ranked second in the league by Pro Football Focus, is out until December with an avulsion fracture…which means the hamstring tore off the bone in the back of his knee. I have a really hard time believing one can come back from that in a couple months. This is a gaping wound in the offensive line of the Dallas Cowboys, but they can probably through a couple band-aids on it and survive for a few weeks before another O-line injury ruins their running game. I expect Zach Martin to sustain some kind of injury at some point this season, so I am personally completely out on the Dallas run game. The passing game is still very much in play though. Draft CeeDee Lamb with confidence.
3. There are reports out of Ravens camp that JK Dobbins may not be ready for week 1 as his knee continues to give him issues. Kenyan Drake was even brought in to work out for the team in case (when) they need some depth. I’m personally avoiding this backfield.
4. Najee Harris has apparently been suffering from a lisfranc sprain (middle of foot). He, not the Steelers, told reporters this. I don’t think it’s a huge deal, but something to keep in mind when drafting him.
5. To continue the Steeler stuff, Diontae Johnson was pulled from the final preseason game after sustaining a shoulder injury. Apparently he would have gone back in if it was a regular season game though.
6. Tyquan Thornton indeed fractured his collarbone, not like I was drafting him anyway.
7. Sam Darnold is out for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain. I’m looking forward to him replacing At Home with Baker Mayfield in week 12, well after the Carolina season is over.
8. Laviska Shenault was traded to Carolina yesterday. The only Panther WR I’m interested in is DJ Moore.
9. There were a bunch of cuts yesterday

I don’t think many are all that fantasy impactful, but if you planned on drafting Marlon Mack, OJ Howard, Anthony Firkser, or Josh Gordon, don’t.

On to the Teams!

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

Coaching Notes: Lovie Smith is back as a HC for the first time in 7 years. As DC last year he helped a bunch of nobodies become 10th in the league in turnovers created. I would expect that to go up this year. New OC Pep Hamilton has been promoted from QB coach, which actually might be a good thing for Davis Mills. There’s a new O-line coach in George Warhop as well, and he has worked with Smith in the past.

O-Line: This group was difficult to figure out as they should have been better than they were last year. Part of the reason for that was injuries, then coaching decisions to move guys around, often to positions that were not their primary spots, helped cause this group to struggle. The 15th overall pick the Texans spent on G Kenyon Green shows that they understand that improvement on the line is needed. Like most groups, health is vitally important to this O-line’s success. The starters they have on the line are NFL capable players, so don’t be shocked if the Texans have a few players who are fantasy relevant this season.

Where I’m at: I honestly would not be upset with Cooks or Collins as WRs on my fantasy team, especially with Cooks in PPR. 44th overall pick John Metchie was getting a decent amount of hype in fantasy circles, but is out for the year with leukemia. 4th round rookie Dameon Pierce is likely going to become the RB1 here fairly quickly. Marlon Mack and Sir Rexington Burkhead were supposedly ahead of him on the depth chart, but the events that have played out this preseason and in camp are leading many to believe this is already Pierce’s job. 

My Interests: Pierce is my favorite late round pick as an RB3 or RB4, then it’s Cooks (especially in PPR) and Collins. Houston DST will be on my radar too.

Indianapolis Colts

Coaching Notes: I really feel for HC Frank Reich. The Four Falls of Buffalo and the colossal collapse at the end of last year aside, he thought he was getting Luck, but he’s had to deal with Brissett, Rivers, and Wentz. Now he’ll try Matt Ryan, which is probably the best he’s had thus far. Reich believes in giving a QB autonomy at the line of scrimmage, something he really hasn’t had the luxury of yet. Ryan may be that guy as this is the best line he’s played behind in some time. Reggie Wayne is joining the club as the WR coach and we have a new DC in Gus Bradley. Reich probably just should instruct Ryan to turn around and hand the ball off to Taylor 25 times a game….but he won’t.

O-Line: One of the best lines in football returns mostly intact for this season as 3 of 5 starters are returning, and they’re all good. Line Coach Strausser is in his 4th year with the club. The replacements coming in for the departed have shown some success and many of the players have displayed versatility in playing different positions, so this should be a good unit again.

Overall Thoughts: Matt Ryan is a solid backup QB for fantasy as he should be better than Wentz in this offense. As an example, many are citing Ryan’s willingness to check down to RBs whereas Wentz does not, so Hines is likely in for a better year and will probably win someone a ton of money in DFS in 2 of the weeks this year. Pittman is awesome and should benefit from a true passer at the helm who has a history of targeting WR1s (Roddy White, Julio, Calvin Ridley….remember those guys?) heavily. Jonathan Taylor is arguably the top overall pick this year, and while I would draft him with confidence, I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s numbers. Rookie Alex Pierce was drafted 53rd overall and he just might be WR2 in this offense, it’s either him or Paris Campbell. Jack Doyle finally retired and the team drafted TE Jelani Woods in the 3rd round. Woods may end up being a future star in this league, but that historically does not happen in first years for TEs. As of right now, Mo Alie-Cox is the starting TE, but I’m not gambling on him being a top 12 TE on the season. 

My Interests: Taylor and Pittman, then Pierce and Ryan as a backup. Woods as a deep pull in dynasty leagues. If you draft Taylor, I would definitely draft Hines as well. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Coaching notes: Stranger Things season 4 could have just been the Jaguars season last year with Urban Meyer. This show now belongs to SuperBowl winning HC Doug Pederson. We also have a new OC in Press Taylor who has worked with Pederson in the past, and a new DC in Mike Caldwell.

O-Line: Ewh. First year coach Phil Rauscher has a challenge on his hands here. They lost 2 of their starters and have a 3rd round rookie Luke Fortner hiking Lawrence the football, though Fortner did play well in college. They also signed RG Scherff who is quite good, but after that it isn’t pretty. As a group though, they are much better at pass protection than run blocking, which should be good since the Jags will most likely be playing from behind in most games.

The WR Room: It was quite full, but Laviska Shenault got traded to Carolina yesterday, which makes things a little clearer. Christian Kirk was paid, some might say overpaid, to come in here, so he will see the field often and is likely the WR1. I will say that Zay Jones’ skills go well with Lawrence’s ability to throw the deep ball, but that’s not something to count on week-to-week. He will be someone that will be on my radar for DFS this season. Marvin Jones is still here too, but he’s approaching AARP territory as far NFL age goes. I expect this offense to be better, but I have doubts that Kirk is a WR1. 

The TE: Evan Engram could be the longshot TE to make a significant impact this year. Last year Lawrence targeted a TE on 18% of his dropbacks and HC Pederson’s highest targeted position in his tenure with the Eagles was the TE spot (Ertz, Celek, Goedert). Now Dan Arnold is still here, but Engram was given a fully guaranteed $9 million deal for one season. The Jags plan to use him, and if Engram doesn’t perform, he won’t get $9 million fully guaranteed ever again. He also drops passes on the reg so…

The RBs: Travis Etienne is poised to take over this backfield and has the potential to be an every down back. I do not believe Robinson to be that kind of player, and I would expect him to get injured at some point. Robinson may start out the year as RB1, but I’d put money on him not finishing that way. That being said, I don’t anticipate a run-heavy offense in Jacksonville, and even if I did, Pederson has a history of incorporating multiple backs, so I expect more frustration from Jacksonville RB fantasy owners.

My Interests: Basically none. In dynasty I would be interested in Etienne and if there was good value on him in seasonal then I’d be interested. I could see myself ending up with is Engram as a backup TE this year too. I will be keeping a watchful eye on this WR group for DFS though. Zay Jones is a long TD catch away from winning someone, me?, a gpp.

Tennessee Titans

Coaching Notes: 5th year for HC Vrabel and 2nd for OC Todd Downing. They run a traditional style offense that relies on a powerful RB to eventually allow their QB to have an easier job throwing the football. Line coach Keith Carter is in his 5th year with the organization but despite that there has been some significant turnover in personnel in the last couple seasons….

O-line: Queensberry and Saffold are gone to Buffalo and that’s a problem. Let’s see what’s left…

LT – Taylor Lewan – serviceable NFL tackle but tore his ACL in 2020 and simply wasn’t the same player last year.

LG – Aaron Brewer is 78th in overall rank.

C – Ben Jones is top 10 in the league, carry on sir.

RG – Nate Davis is a very good run blocker but his pass blocking is suspect.

RT – Dillon Radunz is 112th in overall rank.

Now, the hope, and where this coaching staff seems to have put its faith, is that Lewan can regain his pre 2020 form and that Radunz, a 2nd round pick in 2021, can improve from his rookie campaign. Additionally, they hope that Davis can improve his pass blocking and that Brewer can improve overall. That’s many ifs, especially with whispers of veterans getting sick of the line coach.

Warning Signs: Henry is getting old and costs too much for me in drafts. Tannehill is average, albeit a good fit for the offense. AJ Brown is gone, and reports out of camp about 1st round pick Treylon Burks haven’t been that positive. Also, in a move that I’m pretty sure no one heard about, Austin Hooper is now the starting TE here and could be relevant considering the way the organization uses TEs, but I am not big on Tennessee this year. I could see Robert Woods or Austin Hooper being quite good in PPR formats as I do not know who else can be relied on to consistently catch the ball here. 

My Interests: Hooper as my backup TE. Maybe the DST as they preach turnovers in Tennessee.

NFC SOUTH

Atlanta Falcons

Coaching Notes: HC Art Smith and OC Dave Ragone are in their second year with the Falcons. Smith was the OC in Tennessee who installed a play action heavy passing offense and resurrected Ryan Tannehill’s career. Now, he’ll try to resurrect Marcus Mariota’s. The main problem here though is that the Falcons don’t have an O-line like Tennessee had, nor do they have a Derrick Henry. 

O-Line: This is basically a middle of the road group. Last year they struggled with pass protection but were decent at run blocking, a big reason for Cordarelle Patterson’s success. I actually think this offense is going to be better under Mariota since his mobility could make things easier on the line. 

Thoughts: While Mariota could resurrect his career with this opportunity, working again with HC Smith, I doubt he cracks the top 12 in QBs, so I wouldn’t aim to secure him as your fantasy starter. Kyle Pitts looks like he is about to make a jump in terms of production, and for those of you in dynasty leagues, rookie 8th overall pick Drake London could become Atlanta’s WR1 as early as this year. Smith and Ragone have run a high number of 1 WR and 2 WR sets, which means there is not much fantasy depth for Falcons WRs, so Bryan Edwards, Damiere Byrd and Olamide Zaccheaus are not on my radar, especially when you consider that Pitts sometimes lines up as a WR. Cordarelle Patterson’s enigma fantasy season from last year is not likely to repeat as Damien Williams and rookie Tyler Allgeier are expected to see work as well, and then there’s Mariota who will run at times too.

My Interests: Not much for this year. I’d take a flyer on Allgeier in the late rounds. Kyle Pitts is a freak, and should eventually supplant Travis Kelce at the the premium TE in a few seasons, but is also a likely top 5 TE this year. DC Dean Pees, despite being born in the 1800s, typically has defenses who cause turnovers fairly frequently. This didn’t happen a whole heck of a lot last year, but since it’s Pees, I will be keeping my eye on this DST. Drake London is not getting much love in fantasy circles despite being a high first round pick.

Carolina Panthers

Coaching Notes: HC Matt Ruhle is in his 3rd year and this could be his last if he doesn’t get it together; the amount of capital that he has spent trying to secure a QB over the last 3 years is…

The acquisition and rostering of Bridgewater, Darnold, Cam, and now Baker has cost this team close to 10 draft picks and over $50 million. That’s a fuck ton for mediocrity. Ruhle could be packing his bags if this season doesn’t work. Joe Brady took over this offense halfway through last season, and he’s already gone to coach QBs in Buffalo. The OC is now Ben McAdoo…the same McAdoo who was fired by the Giants and the Jaguars. Um…McAdoo isn’t good, and this team has been reinventing itself almost on a monthly basis over the last 2 seasons. Basically, CMC has to return to the form he was at a few seasons ago if this team is to have any consistent success.

O-Line: First year coach Campen has 19 years of coaching experience. As I mentioned in a previous post, the Panthers spent their 6th overall pick on LT Ekwonu. They also wrested C Bozeman away from the Ravens and RG Corbett from the Rams. RT Moton is a top 25 lineman as well. It is clear that the organization recognized the need to improve the line over last year so that whomever the QB is can stay upright and hopefully McCaffrey can stay healthy. 

Thoughts: The changes in staff and in personnel are nice signs for the fantasy prospects of CMC. If drafting him, then I think it’s vitally important that you draft Foreman as well. The receiving group is the same from last year but Higgins has been added from Cleveland. DJ Moore should be fine since he’s a baller, but he does face a set of tough CBs this year. Both Robbie Andersen and Terrace Marshall should have better years…should. I am particularly still high on Marshall for dynasty leagues as the talent is there for him to be a top WR in the NFL, but tread lightly as Ruhle is a candidate to be replaced mid-season, which honestly might be the reason McAdoo is here…to become interim HC. 🤢

My interests: CMC, if I think he stays healthy, a big if, but I ain’t drafting him 1st round in a snake draft. Foreman as a handcuff, and DJ Moore in seasonal, Marshall in dynasty.

Predictions: Baker sucks. CMC misses a minimum of 25% of the season. Ruhle is let go before the season is over. McAdoo is inserted as Interim HC.

A Little Known Sign of the Apocalypse: McAdoo is named HC for the Panthers going forward. Stock your cupboards.

New Orleans Saints

Coaching Notes: Kevin James is gone as the HC so welcome to the party Dennis Allen. The key thing of note here in NO is that Pete Carmichael is returning as OC. He’s been with the Saints since like 1955, so the offense is not going to change much. This one is a little weird, but Carmichael is going to run the offense while Allen will run the defense. Allen was DC here last year and he has Co-DCs in Kris Richard and Ryan Nielsen to help him. Despite Sean Payton’s departure, the Saints basically kept everyone and then added a pretty familiar name to take over the O-line. 

O-Line: This is interesting. Doug Marone will be in his 1st year as line coach for the Saints. However, he was their OC from 2006 – 2008, just before Carmichael took over. He’s also been a HC for the Bills and Jaguars since then as well as the O-line coach for Alabama. RT Ramczyk is top of the line, but that’s basically it. Twas a tough year last year for this group and questions still remain. We likely have 1st round rookie Penning playing LT and the middle of the line is mostly mediocre. There is some potential here, but a few of these guys are going to have to reach that to be truly effective. This is an effective coach though. 

The Offense: People forget, or at least I did, that this group actually looked half decent under Winston during the first half of last year. While it may be easy to dismiss this group, Michael Thomas is kinda back (don’t draft him), they drafted a talented rookie in Chris Olave, and they brought in Jarvis Landry. Because it’s apparently 2017, the RBs here are Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Ingram could find himself as the starter if Kamara will be serving a suspension for beating the ever living shit out of someone in Las Vegas during the Pro Bowl. Having just been to Vegas, I kinda don’t blame him, but I digress. Kamara’s lawyers got that whole situation tied up with red tape, so I’m not sure what happens there, but it looks like Kamara plays the season. 

The Defense: It’s going to be good. They made some nice additions like Tyron Mathieu and this group of defensive coaches believes in making adjustments to stop your weekly opponents, including in-game adjustments. They also have a talented player pool in which to do it. This is likely my top defense heading into the season.

My Interests: The DST, Winston as a backup, Kamara at the right price, Landry in deep leagues, and Olave in dynasty. Depending on how much they fall in terms of draft capital, I’d be happy to have BOTH Ingram and Kamara on my roster…it’s got to be both though, just in case Kamara gets suspended.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Coaching Notes: I actually know Antonio Brown’s agent. While AB’s antics leaving the field last year were unprofessional and are costing him money and opportunity, the reason he did it is because Arians is a huge piece of shit when it comes to verbally addressing his players. I’m sure that’s part of the reason why Arians “stepped down.” Now it’s Todd Bowles’ show, and he isn’t touching the offense. Bowles will continue to operate as DC as well. OC Byron Leftwich and Tom Brady will continue to implement the type of offense that Arians started.

O-line: Brady managed to pilfer G Shaq Mason away from the Pats, which helps with the team’s loss of Cappa to Cincy. G Ali Marpet retired, but the line should still be in good shape, that is until they started piling up injuries. Tackle Tristan Wirfs has an oblique strain so he should be good to go come the start of the season, but both C Ryan Jensen who is ranked 17th overall and G Aaron Stinnie will miss significant time with knee injuries; Stinnie is done for the year, and Jensen is done until at least November. There is not much depth at these positions so is this is definitely a concern. Bowles was caught contradicting himself recently when he said that the backups are ready, have earned the right to play, and are in good shape. He then said that the team “can’t afford to get any more hurt down there.” Yikes. 

Breakdown: Brady threw a ton last season and it’s widely speculated there will not be a repeat of that this season. This is still a pass first offense, but the Bucs are expected to run a little more in 2022. This is potentially great fantasy news for Leonard Fournette, who has shown himself to be a back who can play in all situations as his pass catching and blocking have improved over the last few seasons. Rookie 3rd rounder Rachaad White is getting some buzz as possibly replacing Fournette, but I doubt that happens this season. Backs have a lot of responsibility in this offense, and many have failed to execute their role in the way Leftwich, and more likely Brady, demand. Julio was just signed, but he could arguably be WR4 once Godwin returns to the lineup and Jones didn’t look all that great in Tennessee last season. Russell Gage has been brought in to replace AB and help triage the lack of Godwin in the early part of the season. He actually didn’t suck in Atlanta. Gronk is gone, for now, and Cam Brate could possibly have an uptick in targets and catches, especially in the early part of the season. 

My Interests: Brady (though I prefer other QBs), Evans, Fournette, Brate as a backup TE, Gage as a WR3, Godwin if discounted, White in dynasty.

Good luck in your drafts and I’ll see you all for week 1 of the DFS season!