Welcome to my first DFS rundown of the 2022 season! I hope you enjoyed my seasonal previews, but we can basically throw all that shit out the window now.

If anyone has not heard, I accepted an invitation to write for the GridironHeroics.com Fantasy Football division. The website is fairly new and is a child of the larger ChiCitySports. In this capacity I will get paid for the content I provide. I have no plans to leave DFO, and hopefully I can find spots to publicize some of the wonderful work the other authors on DFO do. Gridiron is a little more wholesome, so Mr. Ayo and my casual profanity unfortunately will not be welcomed there.

In fact, if you would be so kind and click here, I would appreciate it as I get paid in views. It’s basically the same article, but Gridiron has formatting, search engine optimization, and readability rules that I have to follow. Please read here though as I have more freedom, and there may even be a play or two reserved only for the DFO faithful.

****As a reminder I play 60 lineups. Also, things will change between now and Sunday morning, I will post any updates in the comments section on Sunday morning or on Slack.

Let’s get into it!

Chalk Report

So one thing I aim to start doing this year in my DFS contests is to identify where much, and therefore too much, of the field is going to invest. Identifying were much of the field is going to go and then pivoting to something different, not stupid

but different, can be a nice way to get your lineups into the cash line. Below are some dudes that I will be fading either all together or coming in under the field.

Joanthan Taylor – $9100. The slate’s most expensive player is coming in at 22 – 25% ownership. While he may indeed run all over the Texans the way many think he will, this is a tough price tag. I actually think the Texans are going to make a game of this, and if the game script does not go the way many think, then that’s 22 – 25% of the field I will have a leg up on. This isn’t a full fade for me, but I’ll be under the field.

Jalen Hurts – $6800. He could come in as the highest owned QB on the slate, and that kind of makes sense. I just don’t trust his ceiling because the Eagles should win this game pretty handily. Hurts probably puts up like 22 DK points, but I don’t see that winning a GPP.

Saquon Barkley – $6100. This is a nice price tag for someone who is probably in the best version of the Gmen’s offense that he’s been in since he was drafted. However, the offensive line is still a work in progress, and the ownership is too high for someone who is coming off injuries. Proceed with caution.

Marquis Brown – $6200. Another nice price tag for someone who appears to be in line for basically all the targets on Sunday. Know who else knows that? The Chiefs.

Antonio Gibson – $5800. He isn’t a running back. Please stop.

Dameon Pierce – $4800. There is way too much ownership around an RB who is making his first career start, against a solid defense no less. I bet many lineups will feature Taylor/Pierce or Saquon/Pierce.

Washington Clit Commanders – $2500. Hey look! A cheap defense against the Jaguars! Let’s play them! The Jags don’t suck like they used to. The Commanders suck like they always have.

Game Stacks

These are environments where I am hoping for a shootout.

Las Vegas @ Los Angeles Chargers

This is likely the most heavily owned game stack considering the 52 total and the banana cake chicanery that these two teams subjected us to at the end of last year’s regular season.

Derek Carr – $5900 is going to carry some ownership as many are anticipating the McDaniels Effect will magically turn Carr into someone like Brady. Maybe it could, but call me skeptical. Davante Adams – $8100 is the most expensive receiver on the slate and with CB JC Jackson out, he has a juicy matchup against CBs Michael Davis and Asante Samuel Jr, both of whom are rated towards the bottom of the league by Pro Football Focus. They are the outside CBs. The other Raider outside WR is Mack Hollins – $3000 whom literally no one is talking about and no one will own on Sunday; talk about a sneaky low-owned GPP play. Hunter Renfrow – $5800 has basically been anointed as new Julien Edelman and could be a PPR machine this season. Darren Waller – $5400 can be added to this stack, but he practiced and played a grand total of zero times during the preseason. It could be health related, it was probably contract related, but either way proceed with caution.

On the other side Justin Herbert – $7600 and his pass catchers can definitely be stacked. You can even throw Austin Ekeler – $8200 in a stack as he catches passes too. Keenan Allen – $7000 and Mike Williams – $6600 are both expensive, so stacking two guys with Hebert will prove difficult. Josh Palmer – $3800 makes for a nice alternative to the higher owned Williams and Allen.

Overall, I won’t play this stack heavily on Sunday for two reasons: ownership and recency bias, I doubt we have another 35 – 32 final on our hands. That being said, pieces of it definitely appeal to me.

Kansas City @ Arizona

The Cardinals are only ever good at the start of the season, and if they plan on hanging with the Chiefs then they’re going to need to put up some points here.

Despite Kyler Murray – $7200 not being able to do homework like some teenagers I know, I am interested here. Last time we saw the Chiefs they were letting the Bills and the Bengals throw all over them. Granted those are two good offenses, we have seen Kyler throw and run and end up as a GPP winning QB. The problem here is that there is no Christian Kirk, Deandre Hopkins, Antoine Wesley or Rondale Moore. Also, Zach Ertz – $4400 might not play. Hollywood is the most obvious pairing with Kyler, but he is going to be chalky this week because everyone is thinking the same thing: “Who else is Kyler going to throw to?” That’s a good point, but let me give you some options. First, we got James Conner – $7000. Not only will Conner see the majority of touches against a run defense that has not been good over the last few seasons, we have seen Conner used frequently as a passing target down the stretch of the 2021 season. AJ Green – $4600, despite qualifying for the elderly discount at his local grocery store, is going to be WR2 and will get targets in this game. Andy Isabella – $FREE and UNOWNED will be WR3. Should Ertz not go, Maxx Williams – ALSO FREE has caught a ball or two before as well.

I am so into Patrick Mahomes – $7700 in this matchup. Other than Travis Kelce – $6600 though, I have no idea who the fantasy beneficiaries are going to be here. In seasonal leagues I have a few teams that have both Mecole Hardman – $4600 and Skyy Moore – $3800 because one of them is WR2/WR1 once JuJu Smith-Schuster – $5200 gets hurt. Marquez Valdes-Scantling – $4700 intrigues me as well, but I anticipate he’ll mostly be a deep threat, so you need a home run there. I will probably have 4 Mahomes centric lineups, each with Kelce and one of the other 4. The Arizona secondary is not good, so the Chiefs are gonna get theirs. My only concern is that the Cardinals cannot keep up and the Chiefs just run the game out with Clyde Edwards-Helaire – $5400.

Jacksonville @ Washington

Up top I said that I’m not really into the Commander defense, well I’m not really into the Jaguars’ one either, so I could see a shootout happening here. Trevor Lawrence – $5600 will not be highly owned and I’ll be pairing him with Christian Kirk – $5100 who is priced too low for what the Jags are paying him and how they plan to use him, which is all over the formation. The area to attack the Clit Commander defense is with the passing game. I see a heavy workload in store for Kirk in week one and with his price, he could get there on reception and yard totals alone. Travis Etienne – $5600 is someone I want to use as well, but I won’t be going crazy as HC Doug Pederson has a history of using like 95 backs a game. Zay Jones – $4100 has a skill set that goes well with Lawrence’s ability to throw the deep ball. Evan Engram – $3500 is getting a fully guaranteed $9 million dollar contract and is playing for an HC who has been rolling out offenses that target the TE position heavily (Celek, Ertz, Goedert), so you can stack him here too.

On the other side both F1 Terry McLaurin – $6500 and Jahan Dotson – $3400 appeal to me. If the Commanders end up in hurry up, are playing from behind, or finally accept that Antonio Gibson should be a WR, then JD McKissic – $5100 comes into play. The Commanders went out of their way to wrest him back from Buffalo when he basically had a deal in place.

DISCLAIMER: I’m not going heavy here as Pederson knows Wentz quite well, but honestly that’s a two way street.

One-Offs and Small Stacks

CMC – $8500. Typically balls out early in the season, and the Panthers have made significant improvements to the offensive line.

Alvin Kamara – $7800. Despite assaulting someone in Las Vegas a few months ago, Kamara is going to play football against the Falcons on Sunday. Thanks for your continued model of moral uprightness NFL. He’s consistently put up good outings against this team.

Lamar Jackson – $7300. Speaking of moral uprightness, here’s a live shot of Lamar learning he wasn’t going to get a new contract extension when a lesser QB who also happens to be a sexual predator got a fully guaranteed $230 million deal:

I fully expect Lamar to take this out the New York Jets. You can definitely stack him with Marc Andrews – $6800 and/or Rashod Bateman – $5300, but the beauty in this play is that Lamar could rush for close to 100 yards (which comes with a bonus on DraftKings) and at least 1 TD. By the way that’s the Jets defense cowering in the corner.

Joe Mixon – $7100 is going to eat this year. Might as well start against the Steelers.

Ja’Marr Chase – $7100. Anywhere and any time.

D’Andre Swift – $6800. He gets use in both the run and passing games, and Goff might just be under enough duress to dump off to him frequently.

Aaron Jones – $6700 and AJ Dillon – $5300. You’ve seen the Packers receiving core right? These two are going to have to get involved.

AJ Brown – $6400 gets CBs Jeffrey Okudah and Amani Oruwariye who aren’t great. There will not be many passing attempts from this Eagles offense, but I can honestly see Brown catching every one of his targets here.

Brandin Cooks – $6300. All he does is catch 5 – 8 balls every week for the Texans.

DJ Moore – $6000. How is he only 6K? Also..somehow he’s going to be low owned.

Kyle Pitts – $5700. He’s a freakish athlete and he’s going to show people this year. He lines up all over the formation, so the Falcons should be able to find advantageous matchups.

Darnell Mooney – $5700. The way to attack the 49ers is through the air and Fields showed us last year that he’ll basically only throw to this guy.

Michael Pittman – $5500. If you can see a scenario where the Texans get out front, then this makes a ton of sense. Ryan has a long history of targeting his WR1.

Eli Mitchell – $5400. I doubt this guy makes it through the whole season. Against the Bears, with Kittle likely out, and with Lance making the start, I can see the Niners leaning on the ground game.

Elijah Moore – $5100. Will be using him as a run back in my Lamar stacks.

Naheem Hines – $5100. At least 2 times this year, Hines will win someone a million dollars. Is Week 1 one of them?

TJ Hockenson – $4900. Started last year off hot and starts this year off against a team who was terrible against TEs last season.

Ameer Abdullah – $4200 is going to catch passes in Josh McDaniels’ offense. 5 or 6 grabs in a trailing game script just might do it at this price.

Austin Hooper – $3700. Titans employ the TE heavily in their attack, there aren’t many receivers here, and the Gmen aren’t good against the pass.

Wan’Dale Robinson – $3000. Likely goes up against CB Elijah Molden who was a bottom 15 slot CB last year, and he also missed most of the preseason with an injury. Also, everyone else in the Gmen’s receiving room is hurt or is terrible.

Defenses

49ers – $4100. They are priced up for a reason, and that reason is the Bears’ offensive line.

Browns – $3800. Baker isn’t good. CMC might make them pay, but Baker won’t.

Saints – $3700. They’re my favorite defense this year.

Bengals – $3600. Similar to the Niners’ situation, the Steelers don’t have an offensive line anymore.

Dolphins – $2600. Patriots don’t play well in Florida.