Another Mandatory Viewing Party has come and gone. A warning-attendance was taken and there will be real-world consequences for those that didn’t show/were tardy.
Newsy Notes:
-Matt Rhule stars as Matt Rhule in “Skool Rulez!”. It’s the story of a failed NFL coach that goes back to college because he couldn’t ‘Hackett’ (I’m laughing my drunk ass off right now) in the Big Leagues. Did you know that while resurrecting Baylor he didn’t have a single win against a ranked team? Talk about a paper-thin CV.
-Very happy for Brian Robinson-that car-jacking could have gone so badly. It’s a bit odd to call a guy ‘lucky’ but here we are in 2022.
-A fraud record-free analysis of the NFC East would tell you that the division is the best in the league at the moment. The eyeball test would tell you that Philly is head and shoulders above the two teams that are just one game behind them in the standings but I believe the Sino hate-rist himself, Bill Parcells who said, ‘You are what your record says you are’.
-Giants Thoughts? I Have a Few: They’re at 4-1 and have teams like the Jags, Texans, CommiesX2, Detroit and Indy coming up on the sked. That’s right, 10 wins is a possibility. Sure, they’ve had two [makes finger quotes] unlikely wins but if they get one more those oddball, lucky W’s change into something else entirely.
To The Game!
Raiders/Chiefs:
Reports of my Death Were Premature: Jacobs-who many thought was going to be replaced by Zamir White-ran for a career-best 144 last week. C’mon, the Raiders were always going to run him into the ground before letting him go at the end of the season.
-How Did I Get Here?: K.C. has the best rush defense in the league. They leap-frogged a bunch of teams by limiting the Bucs to 3 yards on 6 carries. Brady threw the ball 52 times for naught. Tom, you’re not 42 any more.
-The Chiefs have won 8 of the last 9 tilts between these squadoos.
-Don’t be surprised if Vegas scores on their opening drive-they’re the only team to do it every week so far.
-On The Other Hand: The Raiders are 4th-worst in converting red zone opportunities and also 4th worst in allowing teams to score in the red zone. That’s a harsh yet wonderfully symmetrical pair of stats.
Get ‘er going in the comments.
Here’s my very crude analysis of the 2-point decisions.
Assumptions:
after the Raiders TD, each team is getting one more drive in regulation
Chiefs’ chance of scoring on final drive = X%
Raiders’ chance of scoring on final drive = Y%
Chance of making 1-point conversion = 100% (slight overestimate)
Chance of making 2-point conversion = 50% (slight overestimate)
Chance of either team winning in OT = 50% (ignores ties and treats both teams as equal)
Decision after Raiders final TD:
Raiders go for 2:
50% chance they make -> win if they stop the Chiefs (1-X) or if both score (xy) = .5(1-x+xy)
50% miss they miss -> win if they stop the Chiefs and score (1-x)y =.5y(1-x)
Total win probability = .5 – .5x + .5xy +.5y -.5xy
= .5 – .5x + .5y
Raiders go for 1:
Win if stop and score (1-x)y, or stop and win in OT (1-x).5
= y – xy + .5 – .5x
= .5 -.5x +y -xy
Go for 2 if .5 y > y- xy
= If .5 > 1 – x
= If -.5 > -x
= If x > .5
Therefore, the Raiders should go for 2 if the Chiefs have > .5 chance of scoring on final drive.
The average NFL team scores on 40%+ of drives. But the Chiefs are better than the average offense, and they scores on 5/9 drives in the game and 3/4 in the second half (not counting the final kneeldown).
So seems plausible to me, enough that I don’t doubt the more detailed and accurate analytics.
Chiefs decision to follow.
I like turtles.
Here’s my very crude analysis:
McDaniels is an idiot.
Gimme formulas please but also QED
iQ of joshEy mcDaniels = 0.00
Homer Simpson – Nerd!! – YouTube
Chiefs decision not to follow because I am too drunk for math.
Say hello to Lionel Hutz, Mr. Adams.
https://twitter.com/cdotharrison/status/1579677630668083207
Scott Van Pelt already excusing him. “He apologize, moment of frustration, one of the true good guys in the league.”
The last part is actually true, since he didn’t force any masseuses to jack him off, nor did he run anyone over at about 160 mph. The rest is just the usual mealy-mouthed ESPN bullshit.
At least my team got the win. And I grilled steaks at halftime, pink in the middle and tender. And we lead the division.
Looks like Javonte Adams is going to be parting with some money next week. Gotta believe shoving a media member out of the way while storming off the field isn’t going to please Herr Goodell, and for once I’d be on his side.
-Guh-
I need a shower
lol Horatio don’t know Javonte vs Davante so so ever so white
They all look alike to me.
Receivers wearing helmets!!! What the hell were you thinking!?!?
https://twitter.com/david_j_roth/status/1579669792105324544
Goddammit Roth is very funny
Oh. Look. Watson is now allowed at the Browns facility. Fuck that shit bag.
Holy shit, I needed a once in a lifetime fantasy performance and I got one…..
Like, … I’m not sober enough for this…..
Officials in sports should absolutely have to be available after games to answer questions.
I get in theory, but then no one would want the job.
Did Carr really think he was getting a PI call on the last play? The KC secondary could have gone full ‘Last Boy Scout’ on the Raiders receivers there and the refs would have swallowed the flags.
OH MY GOD
Good lord, Raiders.
Rhule already fired today. McDaniels number 2?
“Another CRUSHING loss for the Raiders…” — Joe Buck
That’s Rikki’s Raiders!
So would that extra point have helped?
“Meh”-Josh McDaniels
I assume the entire officiating crew already have their wills updated and notarized.
if this isn’t overturned a referee is going to be murdered.
THAT’S GOOD SELF-PRESERVATION!!