DFO, Money Comes In – Week 2

As we mentioned last week, Week One games are notoriously difficult to predict.  Given that, I say that WhyEaglesWhy’s and my performance of basically breaking even should be commended.  Who knew the Vikings would suck as much ass as Amabella (image NSFW, but worth the click) ?

As for King Hippo’s and our fearless leader’s picks,

Here are this week’s picks:

Balls of Steel

I really liked what we saw out of Marcus Mariota and that Titans team.  True, they were playing Tampa Bay, but they were playing them on the road with a rookie QB making his debut.  And they get Cleveland who may be starting Johnny Clipboard with a one point spread?  Yes please.  Stakes:  $11 to win $10.

Dallas used Giants fuckups to pull a game out of their ass that they had no business winning.  Philly fucked up a game they were leading and allowed the Falcons to barely beat them.  Can this happen two weeks in a row?  I say yes.  Also, the spread is 5.5 and that’s a lot of points.  I don’t care that DeMarco Murray might want to pull a Charles Jefferson on the team that gave up on him, I’m taking Dallas on the road plus the points. Stakes:  $11 to win $10

WhyEaglesWhy

Well, a perfect Week 1 bounced off Steve Smith’s facemask in the endzone. As if I needed another reason to hate Steve Smith. But as BoS says, Week 1 is always a bitch – just look at the carnage here. So it’s time to get back on the horse and make some money this week.

Texans +3 over PANTHERS – I think the Texans are just straight up better than the Panthers, and I’m happy to take the 3 points no matter who is playing QB. $11 to win $10.

Falcons +3 over GIANTS – Same here. The Falcons’ new-look D-line manhandled a pretty good O-line on Monday night, and the Giants do not have a pretty good O-line. The Giants also have no answer for Julio Jones. $11 to win $10.

Cowboys +5.5 over EAGLES – You may at this point realize that I like betting underdogs. I know the Cowboys looked bad last week, but how did the Eagles earn the right to be 5.5 point favorites over anyone, let alone a division rival? Their secondary looked every bit as terrible as it was last year, and their new $63 million corner got routinely beat by Roddy White, who is using a walker. Sure, there is no Dez, but Terrance Williams is pretty good, and Jason Witten traditionally feasts on the Eagles. $11 to win $10.

DTZM

Hey, the Rams were a pleasant surprise! I’d say I was sorry for 2 terrible picks, but, um, yeah.  I did tell you I was terrible at this and had a Jon Snow level of know nothing.  I also forgot to declare money, so I’m chalking them both up as $11 for $10’s and moving on.  Also, my whole damn arm almost came off yesterday, and I’m alternating between being sore, cranky, and heavily medicated, so, which rabbit am I picking?

This is football?

Shit.  OK, focus, Zack.  You can do this.  You escaped an alternate dimension, you can pick…football? Yes football games.  OK, let’s get on those lines.  What looks good?

Ravens -5.5 over RAIDERS – OK, lets start with the least competent team of week one, who was shockingly not Cleveland.  That’s right, the Raiders.  Holy shit, the Raiders are awful.  They should fire Reggie Mackenzie at halftime in front of the fans.  It would be the most entertaining thing on that terrible baseball diamond all season.  They’re playing the Balmer Ratbirds at home.  Usually, homefield is an advantage, but the O.co Sponsored by Sewer Backup Corp isn’t known for being welcoming to anyone.  It was built in the 60’s, yet may as well have hosted actual gladiator matches and Greek choruses.  The Fightin’ Flaccos are stinging after that loss to the Donks last week (I got that one wrong, wrong, wrong) and the least talented roster in the league will ease their pain.  Nevermore or some shit.   $11 to win $10.

SAINTS -10 Over Buccaneers – Really going out on a limb here, buddy.  Famous Jameis looked awful last week.  Like, Leon Carosi/Mr Tuttle awful.  And they’re both cyborgs where I’m from, so you can imagine.  First game at All-Madden awful.  Some teams that looked bad last week (harumph Colts harumph) you can excuse – they got jumped by a really good defense on the road, and Buffalo has these games every year. Tampa got crushed by a bad Titans team starting a rookie QB who, incidentally, looked far superior to the one the Bucs drafted ahead of him.  The Saints looked sluggish at first, but got it going against the Cardinals (my least favorite team, by the way.  FUCK YOU BILL BIDWELL!) and ended up winning handily, even though Carson Palmer played against history and finished the game.  So, Saints roll in the Katrina Dome this week.  Maybe Tom Benson will even realize what’s happening. $11 to win $10.

King Hippo

OUCH.  Just muthafukkin’ ouch.  Hey, I can sorta hide behind the fact that the Bears played competently enough to deserve to maybe cover, or at least get the backdoor push ,, no homo godbless.  But R-T-D’s poor Raiders just got ass blasted.  And I predicted them to the 2nd wild card (along with the Rams, which looks less insane after Week One).  Que lastima.

So, let’s go full tilt.  We can try to patiently claw our way back to respectability, but fuck that noise.  That’s as boring as it is unlikely.  Let’s use the “Week One overcorrection” and “Viva Evil” principles and get this ship back on course.

Teams that grossly over and underperformed, where I might expect to find value?  The Jets and Colts play each other!  In Indy!!  Might that line be deceptively tight?  NOPE, it’s at a full 7 and growing (as of this writing).  I don’t like that value for a pure passing team against Revis Island.  Survivor play?  SURE.  To cover a TD plus spread?  NEIN.  Tennessee and Cleveland?  Basically a “pick ’em” but that screams sucker bet to me.  Cleveland has more juice on defense than Tampa does, along with some semblance of a home factory advantage.  Plus…rookie QB syndrome.  Ups and downs are inevitable.  But there’s another near pick ’em, involving a team that’s way overvalued after a curbstomping performance in their opener, a bet that I would be happy to lose, but doubt that I will given my experience with how evil tends to perform in the sports (and the wider overall) world:

Patriots -1 BILLS.  Stakes: $55 to win $50

My only bet of the week.

Updated tables:

Name Balls of Steel Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick # Favorite           Underdog          Line     Wager    Winner?    Winnings      Bankroll Balance
1         San Diego       Detroit                  3        11              Y            10.00             210.00
2         Minnesota      San Francisco     2.5      11              N           -11.00            199.00
3         Tennessee      Cleveland             1       11                            -11.00            188.00
4         Philadelphia   Dallas                  5.5     11                            -11.00             177.00

Name WhyEaglesWhy Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick #  Favorite          Underdog         Line     Wager     Winner?      Winnings     Bankroll Balance
1          Denver           Baltimore          4.5       11               N             -11.00           189.00
2          Houston         Kansas City        1         11               Y               10.00           199.00
3          Carolina         Houston             3         11                              -11.00            188.00
4          NY Giants       Atlanta               3        11                              -11.00             177.00
5          Philadelphia  Dallas               5.5       11                              -11.00             166.00

Name King Hippo Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick #   Favorite          Underdog       Line      Wager     Winner?      Winnings      Bankroll Balance
1           Green Bay      Chicago            7         22               N             -22.00             178.00
2           Cincinnati       Oakland          3         11               N             -11.00             167.00
3           New England  Buffalo            1         55                               -55.00            112.00

Name Darkest Timeline Zack Morris Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick # Favorite           Underdog          Line     Wager    Winner?    Winnings      Bankroll Balance
1         Seattle             St. Louis              4.5        11              Y            -11.00             189.00
2         Denver            Baltimore            4.5        11              N           -11.00             178.00
3         Baltimore       Oakland               5.5        11                            -11.00             167.00
4         New Orleans  Tampa                 5.5        11                             -11.00             156.00

Your picks in the comments…