Duchess Destroys the Draft

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We have seen two “BLOCKBUSTER” trades for draft picks first the Rams traded their future for marketing purposes and then the Eagles decided to keep digging in the hole Chip Kelley put them in.

So how did we get here? And who can we thank blame for this craziness? Jerry Jones.

When Jerry Jones bought the Cowboys in 1989 for $140 Million Dollars, he brought with him his long time business partner Mike McCoy. McCoy during his tenure with the Cowboys owned 5% and was named Vice President of the Dallas Cowboys in 1990. Legend has it Double J (Some say Jerry Jones others say Jimmy Johnson) were wondering if there was a way to make draft day easier. See every year phones are always ringing with offers for trades and the guys wanted to know if they had a good deal on the table or not. McCoy jumped up and had his folks find out every draft trade for the past eight years to see if he could figure out a pattern in what the NFL Teams were willing to trade. McCoy made a table of what he perceived the value of each draft pick and the Cowboys used it. When Coaches like Dave Wannstedt and Norv Turner left they took a copy of the table, when scouts or front office folks left so did the table. By 2000 the McCoy Table was pretty much used by every team in the league. (Chart Below)

Picture from SBNation. Work by Mike McCoy
Picture from SBNation. Work by Mike McCoy

On paper, it looks like it makes sense. If you want to move up, you have to be willing to give a few picks to get there. Hell, the NFL’s Draft Day movie in 2014 used this same chart as a plot. Seahawks at one trade to the Browns at 7 (Why seven because on the chart 7 is exactly half the value of 1) Browns later Trade all their number 2’s for three years to get back at 6. Three high level 2’s are about 500 each adding up to just slightly behind Jacksonville’s 1,600 for the 6th pick. Those wild, wacky trades all fit into the chart.

The Giants trading for Eli, part of the chart. So has anyone stopped to ask if the chart was, oh I don’t know accurate at all? Not in the NFL. However, two economists did. Cade Massey and Richard Thaler analyzed the first round drafts, and when you bring into account the money and other factors that associated with the first round pick the economists found that teams

A. Overvalued the top picks
B. Undervalued future picks, at an average of 174%

That second part is most likely due to Coaches/GM thinking if it works our next year pick will be lower on the chart, If it doesn’t go well I am probably gone, and that’s the next guys problem. So how did they determine top picks are overvalued? They measured player production of not just the players selected with the draft picks (RE: is Eli > Lazerface and Shawne Merriman) but also looking at alternative selections. (Is Eli > Laserface > The Ben?).

When Massey and Thaler looked at position draft order, they concluded that the probability of the first player selected in a position being better than the second person was only 53%. Better than the 3rd? 55%. What about the 4th? Only a 56%. There was no definitive information that says the first player selected would be the best player at his position. So why trade up at all? Because the McCoy Draft Value Table says the first pick is valuable, want to know the big hush-hush secret that few people seem to understand?

McCoy was FULL OF SHIT. See when developed the Cowboys sucked and had a lot of top of the order draft picks in each round, so they devised a system to justify moving down in drafts, and the NFL still uses it today. Writers still write about it and the talking heads still talk about how great deals are etc. The only two teams who routinely traded against the chart are the Patriots and the Andy Reid era Eagles. Well, that and when the Saints traded everything away for Ricky Williams (which Washington gonna Washington and completely Jetted that whole windfall of picks).

So kids just remember that when the next big draft trade comes along. That a little slip of paper an oil driller half-assed on “8 years” worth of data in the 1980’s designed to overvalue draft picks in his possession at the time helped make that trade a reality.

I am standing on the shoulders of giants. If you think this is remotely interesting I implore you to read Scorecasting by Tobias Moskowitz and Jon Wertheim.

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A Rational Look at the Bears 1st Round Trade – [DOOR FLIES OPEN]WakezillaJerBear50Moose -The End Is Well NighLow Commander of the Super Soldiers Recent comment authors
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[…] yes I do hate trading up in the draft and I hate the dumb draft chart. However, the draft chart is here and until more people act like Grumble Lord it will stick around. […]

Wakezilla

This was a really enjoyable read.

I think the biggest flaw in terms of the McCoy system is that not all drafts are created equal.

Low Commander of the Super Soldiers

Mike McCoy thinks that Mike McCoy’s “McCoy Table” is the real McCoy and what is best for the Chargers and Mike McCoy’s strategy come draft day. …Mike McCoy!

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

OK, it’s not that obscure of a joke.

JerBear50
JerBear50

Obscure? I’ll see your Hatfield and raise you a Baldwin-Felts.
http://staticmass.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/dvd_mat.jpg

ballsofsteelandfury

It’s funny. The AFL has an OFFICIAL trade value chart that they use to govern all draft trades. All teams have to abide by this.

http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL%20Tenant/AFL/Files/Points-draft-value.pdf

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Inanimate Carbon Rod Marinelli
Inanimate Carbon Rod Marinelli
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

RUH ROH! Now we are on pancakes.

jjfozz

Heaven just got a whole lot sexier – and funkier.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

comment image

Doktor Zymm

I took a behavioral economics class taught by Thaler. The day we went over his draft research was really fun. It was originally the [*Redacteds] who hired him as a consultant, but they, in their infinite wisdom, decided to blow him off, and he shopped it to the Cowboys. Dan Snyder apparently found it unpleasant to have his stupidity pointed out to him by a celebrated academic.

Unsurprised
Unsurprised

No way. I can’t believe such a level headed and lover of independent minds and thought would ever do that.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

“unpleasant to have his stupidity pointed out to him by a celebrated academic”

WUT?

That and a hard spanking cost me $750 and I GLADLY pony up for it twice a year.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Doktor Zymm
jjfozz

Stop mathing up my love for the NFL.

Well, it’s not love.
It’s more like a colorful sidebar that breaks up my habitual drinking.

blaxabbath

“A colorful sidebar that breaks up my habitual drinking.”

-Baltimore Students Explain Why Recess Is Their Favorite Period

jjfozz

Replace “drinking” with “beating up the kids who are studying” and you’re spot on.

Beerguyrob
rockingdog
rockingdog

🙁

Fronkenshteen

Gawker & Jez have it posted, unfortunately. Shame. He was a sexy motherfucker.

Fronkenshteen

Dodgers radio broadcast already using Prince music between half-innings.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
blaxabbath

Which clickbait is better?

“I thought the draft was just a number game but what Duchess writes next….JUST DESTROYS THE DRAFT”

“Vegas calls him the Draft Whisperer. See how he breaks the NFL draft and find out why NFL Executives and casino odds-makers HATE HIM”

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

“YOU WON’T BELIEVE THE JAW DROPPING OUTFIT JENNIFER ANISTON WORE WHILE WATCHING THE DRAFT!”

Beerguyrob

Maybe if you’d said Jennifer Lawrence…

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

I did that on purpose since a couple of the click bate on some news sites this week has her for some reason; probably because she’s a bit older and a certain segment of the population will “Oh, WHAT did that bitch do now?” or “Oh, she’s so nice and has been mistreated; I’m glad she’s happy…. I need to show my stuff more, just like Jennifer.”

monty this seems strange to me

10 Ways The Draft Is Destroyed (#4 will ASTONISH you)

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

“Number 5 WILL BLOW YOUR F%^&ING MIND, PEOPLE!”

Horatio Cornblower

“CLEVELAND WAS NOT READY FOR WHAT JIM HASLEM DID TO THE DRAFT!!!”

That’s not clickbait, that’s the Plain Dealer’s headline the day after the draft finishes.

jjfozz

I saw Springsteen last night, so I am a bit fuzzy. And partially deaf. Worth it.

Also, the place was swarming with cougars and it was the whitest audience I’ve ever seen at any concert. Ever.

Fronkenshteen

They do 10th Ave. Freezeout?

jjfozz

Indeed. Best part of that song – Clarence Clemmons’ son pointing upward before launching into the sax solo. NO ONE DENIES THIS!

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Fuzzy? Sure you aren’t ………….. Fozzy?

I’ve seen him three times and every show was fantastic. Which makes me hate Peter King all the more.

jjfozz

I have loved this guy since I was 15. Soundtrack of my life. Took 30 years to see him live.

I am transformed.

blaxabbath

comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

My favorite was at Red Rocks for the Darkness on the Edge of Town tour; beautiful day and night; trippin’ balls with a Special Lady, great seats, etc., etc. One of my favorite concert experiences.

jjfozz

I spent the first 15 minutes of the concert saying to myself, “Holyfuckingshit that’s Springsteen. Right fucking there.”

Also, he sang Thunder Road and – holy goddamn shit.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

He surprised me with his vocal range. Thanks for reminding me of that day.

Horatio Cornblower

I’ve seen more mixed race audiences at skinhead concerts, and I’m not joking.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

I’ve only seen him in the Denver area and it seemed to me that there was various Latino types at the shows, including a couple of friends that I went with to the Born in the USA tour, but that is usual Denver. But yeah… slightly different from the George Duke and Stanley Clark crowds.

blaxabbath

I look forward to reading this book. I remember hearing about Moneyball and basically shrugged and said, “Isn’t that what we all did with our NES baseball games? You load up the lineup with the pitchers who throw the fastest and players with the best averages (or most homers). How is this new?” To me, this is so obvious in sports where the team is basically just the sum of individuals (baseball, track, swimming, golf). Now, as far as football/hockey go — I don’t think it is so simple.

Then I moved into the business world, home of “oh man, it’s a huge pain in the ass when you ask me to do this task….well, I don’t know why we do it this way, we just always have” and you see, (1) how much conscious bias people carry in their decision-making (“…because he’s an asshole!”), (2) how little concern from improvement there actually is. My goodness, if cronyism hadn’t ruined the barrier of entry into every market, we’d be a thousand times more efficient as an economy (probably — go ask an economist). But, of course, everyone looks to Silicon Valley and just says, “Well, I’m not about to institute a program to help our employees understand their jobs better — but we can start doing jeans on Friday’s if it ups production and isn’t too much of a distraction!”

In conclusion, without understanding your own team’s needs and goals, this chart would be just a baseline at best. You can still only have 1 quarterback on the field at a time. You still have a salary cap. There must be some consideration for replacement value. The list goes on.

But then the Raiders go out and draft Darrius Heyward-Bey at 7 and then Michael Crabtree has to hold out and the invisible hand corrects all.

monty this seems strange to me

comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Part, sometimes the whole value of the higher picks is a team or sometimes just the GM have a particular person that they want. While this want is subjective and a hit or miss proposition, it is value; value to the team who is giving up the pick, and this value is paid for handsomely.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

“Wait, what am I paying for again?”

comment image

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Look at the Chip on that handsome shoulder.

jjfozz

That’s a blue chip, Chip

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

Another problem in valuing top picks is the team nature of the sport. The relative success of a draft pick is largely dependent on the team he plays and the coaching he receives to learn the NFL game and to be used properly based on his talent in any particular scheme. The higher picks will most often go to a team that is low on talent, in turmoil, or both. The high pick also often goes to a new coaching staff that could be a few seasons away from figuring things out. This is why David Carr only has one semi-healthy testicle now.

monty this seems strange to me

And in a lot of cases the team is going to fire the coaching staff before giving up on the player selected with the high pick. Then he has to start over with a new staff that is a few seasons MORE from figuring things out.

blaxabbath
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

He was a very good tight end. His character was fine, except for that murdery stuff.

blaxabbath

“Judge him by what he did ON THE FIELD!” –

-PK, before issuing 23,000 words on why Peyton Manning’s off field investments alone deserve a shrine in the HOF.

Horatio Cornblower

Before learning the Patriot way Aaron Hernandez only wounded people. Afterwards he straight up murdered them.

You’re not going to see that kind of improvement in Cleveland!

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
monty this seems strange to me

Economists. Is there anything they CAN’T do?

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Prevent the economy from blowing up every ten years or so?

blaxabbath

They make tax cuts at the start of a [never ending] years long undeclared war make sense!

http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/en.futurama/images/a/a3/VoodooEconomists.jpg/revision/latest?cb=20090927140519

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Where’s that image from? Simpsons? Futurama?

blaxabbath

F-rama.

Top voodoo economists tell Nixon to give everyone $300 in the form of a Tricky Dick Fun Bill in Three-Hundred Big Boys.

Beerguyrob

And that’s why the Browns hired one of the Moneyball guys. Because if there’s one thing that’s gone right in Cleveland over the years, it’s Indians baseball.

Fronkenshteen

So i get 39 Tom Bradys for 1 Mike Nugent? Seems legit.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Andy Reid misread “Nugent” as “Nougat” and thought this was some kind of wonderfully one-sided candy bar transaction.

Moose -The End Is Well Nigh
Moose -The End Is Well Nigh

That’s a great nugget.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

“This was very educational.”

– anyone but a UNC graduate

The Right Reverend Electric Mayhem

There are plenty of UNC grads that can recognize, at least in the abstract, that something is likely educational.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

“Ab…stract? What the hell kind of fancy New York word is that? And where’s my chaw done gone to?”

– other North Carolina residents