Hey all. This is likely my last post of the season. I do dabble in PGA and NHL DFS but I don’t know nearly enough about PGA to impart any sort of wisdom, and NHL contests typically suck in terms of entries and payouts, so I have not been able to sustain any sort of consistent winnings there.

I want to thank everyone again for the opportunity to join the community. I have really enjoyed writing during the season, and in many ways I have become a better DFS player, though there is more room to grow. While I cannot wait for the next NFL season, a respite from the grind is something I am looking forward to.

There’s only 2 games on the slate (obviously) which sort of hinders our ability to “get different.” However, there may be a way or 2 to get a little different. I would recommend taking a couple stances and maybe even having 100% exposure to a few players and then stacking up your preferred QB with 2 to 4 of his teammates. The triple stack with a TE is typically less owned, but let’s take a closer look at the players….

Cincinnati Bengals @ Coin-Toss Winning Kansas City Chiefs

KC -7

O/U 54.5

Joe Burrow – $6600 and the Bengals have turned into a full on passing offense over their last 4 games. Burrow has put up stat lines of 525/4, 446/4, 244/2, 348/0, or DK point outings of 41.1, 37.8, 17.6 and 16.4. While the last two are concerning, the 37.8 came against these same Chiefs. Cincinnati’s early-down pass rate over the last 4 is 60.7% which is higher than the rest of the season of 51.0%. The likely game script, based on the spread and point total, is one where Burrow and the Bengals have to throw to stay in the game. If we dive into the numbers more, KC uses a high number of Cover 1, and Burrow is statistically the 2nd best QB this past season when facing Cover 1. When KC used Cover 2 vs Burrow in Week 17, Burrow went 10 for 12 with over 100 yards and a TD. The 3rd coverage scheme KC uses is Cover 6, and Burrow was the 6th best QB against that coverage this past year. Like Tennessee last week, KC’s best bet is going to be to try and get to him as much as possible. Burrow, out of every QB to ever make it this far in the playoffs, has taken the most sacks (62). The 5 previous QBs to enter the conference title game with 50 or more sacks all lost, and 4 of them saw their teams fail to score an offensive TD. That’s some tough history to overcome, but Burrow has shown the ability to overcome adversity, is on a role, and has a great matchup. IMO Burrow is about to become the 6th QB to play in a Super Bowl in his 2nd year as a Pro. (Since you asked, the other 5 are Marino, Brady Roethlisomething, RW3, and Kaepernick.)

Joe Mixon – $6800 is the most expensive RB on the board. Over his last 4 Mixon is averaging 70% of snaps, 21 opportunities and 100 total yards. It’s the 6.5 targets a game that have me interested as there are paths to Mixon doing well regardless of the game script. There’s only going to be about 6 viable RBs this week, so Mixon should come with ownership, the highest on the slate at the position likely. He may just be necessary though as the likelihood that he ends up in the optimal lineup is high considering the opportunity he has in this offense right now. KC is also giving up 4.6 yards per attempt and the 4th most receptions to RBs. If you think 2 other RBs outscore him, and that’s certainly possible, then he makes for a solid game theory fade.

Ja’Marr Chase – $6700 and Tee Higgins – $5700. Chase has been on a friggin tear, reaching 100 or more yards in each of his last 4 games (excluding Week 18 when the Bengals didn’t really play). Over the final month of the season, no team allowed more fantasy points to outside WRs than the Chiefs. While you should not expect a repeat performance from Week 17, another 100 yard game could definitely be in store for Chase who is averaging 10 targets per game. Higgins should not be priced this low considering his role in this offense. Like Chase, he is an outside WR who gets to play against this defense too. Higgins was heavily featured in the first half vs Tennessee, receiving 9 total targets for 7 catches and 96 yards. Throw in a TD and 4 more yards and he’s that close to being in the winning lineup. Here’s the deal with the Chiefs outside CBs though. One is Fenton and one is Ward. Fenton is Pro Football Focus’s #3 overall CB. Ward, however, over the last 8 weeks is allowing the 6th most fantasy points against. He predominantly plays on the left side, which is the side Chase played a few weeks ago when he abused Ward and sent him home with nightmares. I would expect the Chiefs to attempt to figure out a way to keep Chase grounded, but this secondary couldn’t keep Gabe Davis from running a train on them. During the last few drives of that game, the Chiefs used Nickel and Dime prevent defenses, which prevented scoring about as well as drinking one’s own urine prevents Covid. The point? The additional CBs behind Ward and Fenton are not good and will likely not be helpful in obvious passing situations. Chase is the primary add here for me (just like Diggs was last week and that didn’t really work out so you have been warned) but Higgins should not be ignored in the event that the Chiefs find a way to take Chase out, because then Higgins becomes the likely focal point of the Bengals passing attack.

Tyler Boyd – $4200 showed just how TD dependent he has been last week as he only got 3 targets for 2 grabs and 17 yards. He has a nice price decrease going into the AFC Championship. He’s probably owned the least out of the 3 Bengals wideouts and gets a soft matchup in the slot against CB Sneed who has allowed 50 or more yards against in 4 of his last 6 games.

CJ Uzomah – $3400 has been relied upon much more since the playoffs started. While it’s only 2 games, he’s averaging 7 targets, 6.5 grabs, 67.5 yards, and .5 TDs. At $3400 that sounds lovely, especially in Burrow triple and 2 TE stacks, but I’m sure I’m not the only one who thinks so. The Chief defense isn’t necessarily one to target with a TE, but they also haven’t really played anyone with an exceptional TE. I’m not saying that Uzomah is one, but based on his recent usage, he isn’t someone who should have a particularly hard matchup on Sunday.

Patrick Mahomes – $7400 is in play. I’m really not sure what else needs to be said. There’s the possibility that maybe KC has 2 or 3 rushing TDs, or someone like Kelce throws a TD pass again, thus limiting Mahomes’s ceiling, but this man will be throwing the ball. The Bengals defense has stepped up, but Mahomes is different than Carr and Tannehill. Now that Allen is out, Mahomes has the highest rushing upside for a QB as well.

Tyreek Hill – $7000 saw zero deep targets against the Bills, but that was no matter as he still has the talent to take an underneath cut route 63 yards to the endzone. Even if a team’s defense schemes around him, he can still make you pay. The Bengals will take that deep play away from Hill in this matchup as well. That being said, the Bengals secondary ranks top 10 in most yards after the catch allowed, which is kind of Hill’s specialty.

Travis Kelce – $6500. The Bengals, on the season, rank top 6 in receptions, receiving yards, and fantasy points allowed to TEs. I’ve talked up Kelce ad nauseam all season and anyone who even casually watches football knows how much he factors into this offense. Kelce will probably be the most owned TE.

Jerick McKinnon – $5100 / CEH – $5300 / Darrel Williams – $4200. I honestly believe that whomever gets this backfield right is going to win the day. McKinnon was 2% owned 2 weeks ago, was 27% owned last weekend, and will likely see a dip in ownership now that CEH got a good amount of the handoffs (7 of 17) and was more effective with them than McKinnon. Additionally, Cam Akers, the now clear RB1 for LA, is priced less so I’m hoping that many are going to go there. McKinnon, however, still saw 70% of the snaps, got 10 carries, and ran 38! routes for 7 targets and 5 grabs for 54 yards. If you believe that the Chiefs will pass on the Bengals, which I do, then it looks like McKinnon is the play as he is the one receiving the passing down work. However…like we saw with Cam Akers last week, the Divisional round could have been the warmup act for CEH as he begins to assume more of the RB1 role, which comes with more snaps, handoffs, routes, and targets. Williams has been limited at practice this week, including on Friday. He’ll likely suit up. Overall, when he looks his best, he has been featured in both the run and passing game. I’m past the point of being surprised by this backfield, so if Williams somehow reassumes his RB1 role, he will win you the slate. It’s unlikely to happen, but I’ll have a few lineups just in case.

Byron Pringle – $4300 continues to see a healthy workload. Last week he played 76% of the snaps and ran 43 routes. While that didn’t translate to more than 7 targets, 5 grabs, 29 yards, and a score, an opportunity like that in this offense shouldn’t be ignored. Even at 7 targets last week, he was tied for 3rd on the team.

Mecole Hardman – $4000 was nice enough to prove me right last week when he took a jet sweep to the house. Beyond one explosive play, his usage was mildly troubling as he only received 1 passing target. Hardman also only played 41% of the snaps. Hardman is the direct understudy of Tyreek Hill, so unless Hill gets injured, Hardman’s ceiling is significantly limited.

Demarcus Robinson – $3800 also only saw 1 target, but played 64% of the snaps. There’s only 1 football, a limited number of targets to go around, and plenty of mouths to feed so going here is probably a prayer, but it might have a better opportunity of being heard than Hardman.

San Francisco 49ers @ LA Rams 

Rams (who haven’t beaten the Niners in their last 6 games) -3.5

O/U 45.5

I can tell you right now that I am not interested in Jimmy G – $5400. The 49ers do not run many plays right now, and haven’t for awhile. They will attempt to beat the Rams, something they have become pretty good at,

with good defense and a slow plodding run game. Garoppolo just doesn’t have the ceiling that Mahomes, Burrow and even Stafford have. Jimmy G could throw 3 TDs this Sunday and still not be the highest scoring QB.

Elijah Mitchell – $5900 has posted 7 straight outings with 20 or more touches. Against the Rams this season, Mitchell has put up stat lines of 27-91-0 and 21-85-0, playing on 53% of the offensive snaps in each outing. While that initially doesn’t sound good, he’s hit the 70% mark in both playoff games this postseason. If Mitchell, despite his usage, does not get into the endzone though, well then he might only put up 9.1 DK points despite achieving 91 rush yards as he is not featured in the passing game. He, along with Mixon, should be the most owned RBs.

Deebo Samuel – $7200 is averaging nearly 8 rush attempts and 4 receptions per game over his last 6. Samuel continues to be efficient with that usage as he is averaging 115.8 total yards per game and has reached the end zone in 4 of those games. In Week 10, Deebo went for 5-36-1 rushing and 5-97-1 receiving for 30.3 DK points. In Week 18, he went for 8-45-1 rushing and 4-95-0 receiving for 29 DK points. While he was hobbling at the end of last game, when Wednesday’s practice reports came out, Deebo was not on the injury report.

George Kittle – $5000 has 5 or more receptions and/or 100 or more yards in his last 8 games vs the Rams. He had 5 grabs in each game this season. The Rams have given up the 10th most receptions to TEs.

Brandon Aiyuk – $5000 intrigues me because he got a grand total of zero

fantasy points last weekend vs Green Bay. Prior to that game, Aiyuk had eclipsed 11.5 DK points in 4 straight, and in 7 of his last 9. Because of his disappearing act last week, his ownership could be lower. Last time out against the Rams Aiyuk had 7 targets for 6 grabs and 107 yards. If he were to catch a TD in this game, well, that could win you the slate.

Jauan Jennings – $3200 is also going to make my player pool. As with Aiyuk, the entire SF passing attack took a back seat in the tundra of Wisconsin. Prior to that he was becoming a bigger part of the offense. He’ll be even lower owned than Aiyuk, so same thing applies…a TD might be enough to win the slate.

Matthew Stafford – $6300 is not going to make it for me this week either has I have to draw lines somewhere. In 2 games vs SF this season, Stafford averaged 15.65 DK points. The 49ers are a pass-funnel defense, but they have been playing better lately. I do actually think Stafford goes beyond 15.65 points, but north of 30 is not likely here when you consider the projected pace of the game.

Cooper Kupp – $8800 is in play despite that. Stafford could throw for 250 yards and Kupp could have half of it. He put up 29.6 and 26.2 DK points against this team in their 2 meetings this year and simply has to be considered if you can afford him. The 49er secondary has been making life difficult of late for WRs, but Kupp is a little different because of his slot presence. He’ll go up against slot CB Williams who is allowing 77% of passes thrown his way to be completed. Kupp gets roughly 11 targets a game, so a 7+ reception game is on the table for him yet again.

Cam Akers – $5000 has seen his role in this offense increase each week. He played 81% of the offensive snaps and drew 90% of the RB touches against Tampa. He had 24 rush attempts, ran 24 routes, and had 3 targets. However, he’s only averaging about 2.3 yards per carry since he’s been back, and the 49ers, whose front seven is quite good, is averaging 2.7 yards allowed per carry. We just saw Aaron Jones find success against this defense in the passing game as he had 9 receptions and over 100 yards. Akers is the receiving back in this offense right now, so that could bail him out. He did fumble twice in the last game though, so I am curious if he is one more away from the bench since Sony Michel – $4600 has a grand total of 1 fumble on the season. In fact, if looking for a way to get different, “Akers gets benched for fumbling,” is an unlikely strategy for a DFS player this weekend. Also, Akers could come in with double the ownership of McKinnon, so simply from a game theory perspective, I like McKinnon more. Akers missed practice on Friday but is not on the injury report so just be vigilant here.

OBJ – $5100 could return the value we need this week too. Though they have been better, the 49ers have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to WRs this year. OBJ’s target share may not come close to Kupp, but he’s been productive in the endzone, scoring TDs in 6 of his last 9 games.

Tyler Higbee – $3700 continues to run a ton of routes and is averaging 7 targets a game over his last 5. If we think 7 targets might be good enough for Uzomah or Pringle, then it could be good enough for Higbee too. Against SF in Week 8 he put up 23.5 DK points but needed to find the endzone twice to do it.

Van Jefferson – $3900 is the forgotten man in this offense right now as OBJ has basically usurped his target share. However, every now and again the Rams take a deep shot to Jefferson. Should he catch a long one for a TD, against a suspect Niner secondary, then he likely makes the winning lineup.

Bonus Thought: Darrell Henderson – $4500 is likely to be activated from IR. McVay’s backfield has been a near constant source of frustration for me for some time now. Regardless of said frustration, I simply need to follow the numbers here. The likelihood of Henderson coming into this game and immediately supplanting both Michel and Akers is small. Additionally, even if he does, it’s not like the 49ers are susceptible against the run. I am not playing a $4500 Henderson when I can get Higbee, Jefferson, Boyd, Uzomah, Pringle, Robinson….hell even Juszczyk – $4100 is someone I’ll play over Henderson.

Where I’m at

QB – Mahomes and Burrow.

RB – A mix of CEH and McKinnon with a side of Williams will dominate my lineups. Mitchell, Michel, Akers, and Mixon will find their way into my lineups.

WR – Most of my lineups will have 2 or 3 from the KC/Bengals game. Each of my lineups will have a secondary WR (or Higbee) or 2 from the SF/LA game. Kupp is a priority.

TE – stack with QB so that likely means Kelce or Uzomah will be in all of my lineups. I do like Higbee though.

DST – All of them.

Bonus Unsolicited Super Bowl Prediction

Bengals vs 49ers