Well, merde. The Narrative Owl it is, and one has to root for the Tomsulas.
Speaking of, at least they weren’t GIVEN anything – they just fucking took that game away. Doing what good teams do, finding an extra reserve of will and urgency, to dig out of a 24-7 halftime hole. Drops absolutely killed Detroit, it wasn’t the decisions to go for it on 4th. Heck, the one Campbell probably wants back is the one at the end of the first half. But really – all three were VERY difficult/close choices. You pay your money, take your chance, and live with the results.
But Baby Shanny carries the hopes of the nation, as Balmer completely reverted to “Stereotypical Ratbirds in January” form. Absent one drive (where Lamar! made a video game play for a TD strike to Zay Flowers), Steve Spagnulo put their balls in a vice and squeezed until they sploded. Mahomes dink and dunked them to death for 17 first half points, almost exclusively thanks to Kelce. Then the offense took the rest of the day off, because 17 points would be enough. BAL won the 2nd half 3-nil, and lose 17-10. But they were well-beaten.
Anyway, huge deflation of the balloon, but I guess I will still watch. At least I have an 8:00a dentist appointment to look forward to today (Monday).
I bet her arm was pretty tired by the time guy #5 achieved satisfaction.
She’s got a future in Houston politics.
Or working for the Patriots.
While I don’t mind watching her go down (phrasing!) I’m still pissed off that it’s slut shaming that did it instead of any of the actually good reasons she shouldn’t be in politics
At this point I’m beyond caring what drives these assholes back into their holes. I am very much against slut shaming, but if it gets rid of Lauren Boebert and her ilk I’ll burn “WHORE” in block letters right across her front lawn.
It’s not really that, though. She came within an eyelash of losing to a Democrat in her home district and very likely would have lost the upcoming rematch. The slut-shaming stuff is just gravy, and seems to have far less to do with sluttiness than classlessness.
(Indiana folks start slut-shaming)
From ESPN:
“Why do people in analytics say momentum isn’t real?” Kittle asked the assembled media in his postgame news conference. “That’s the biggest load of horse crap I’ve ever heard in my life.”
Lions’ Dan Campbell made bad decisions during NFC title game, but not the ones you think
By Austin Mock
3h ago
196
Sunday night’s NFC Championship Game saw a historic comeback by the San Francisco 49ers as they rallied from a 17-point deficit against the Detroit Lions to punch a ticket to Las Vegas for Super Bowl 58 and a rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Brock Purdy and the 49ers, of course, deserve a lot of credit for mounting a season-saving comeback, but anyone who watched the game knows the Lions left the door wide open for such a revival.
And if you spent any amount of time on social media during or after Sunday’s game, you probably came across some debates about Lions coach Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decision-making. Campbell is known for his aggressiveness on fourth downs — the Lions led the league in fourth-down attempts this season — but I think there is reason to dive a little deeper into how aggressive he really is. Two of his decisions Sunday night stole the show, but I think three other decisions aren’t getting as much attention as they should, with at least two of them seeming like bigger errors in judgment.
GO DEEPER
Dan Campbell: ‘I don’t regret’ fourth-down decisions
However, let’s quickly discuss the two decisions under the most intense scrutiny: first, his choice to go for it on fourth-and-2 at the 49ers’ 28-yard line with 7:03 left in the third quarter with the Lions leading 24-10. The second was a fourth-and-3 at the 49ers’ 30-yard line with 7:32 left in the fourth quarter with the Lions trailing 27-24. Both plays resulted in a turnover on downs.
ADVERTISEMENT
Was going for the right call in both spots? Campbell certainly believed he was putting his team in the best position to win, but is it actually possible to quantify whether he was right or wrong? Sure. Well, kind of.
Over the past few years, a few fourth-down decision statistical models have been derived for public consumption, while teams certainly have their own in-house models for in-game decision-making. Basically, the models spit out a projected win probability for a team if it decides to go for it on fourth down or if it decides to kick/punt. Whichever is the highest probability is deemed the optimal decision to maximize a team’s chances of winning the game.
For this exercise, I’m going to choose the rbsdm.com model to gauge whether Campbell gave the Lions a better chance of winning.
According to rbsdm, the Lions were expected to gain 2.2 and 2.0 percent of win probability by going for it in those two highly scrutinized decisions. Unfortunately, an inaccurate pass to Josh Reynolds by Jared Goff in the third quarter and a tough throw on the run in the fourth quarter both ended up with the 49ers taking over on downs.
So, the computer certainly thought Campbell made the right decision in those situations. The outcomes simply didn’t go his way.
But remember that I mentioned there were three plays that I thought should get more attention that were largely ignored? Two of the plays actually resulted in points but didn’t get as much public scrutiny. One was the decision to go for it on fourth-and-goal from the 49ers’ 3-yard line with 56 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, trailing by 10. Ultimately, Goff found Jameson Williams for a touchdown, and the Lions cut the 49ers lead to 3. This decision to go for it, rather than kick a field goal, gave the Lions an extra 1.7 percent of win probability. While that doesn’t seem like much, it landed in a similar range of win probability as the two heavily scrutinized decisions from earlier in the game.
GO DEEPER
Did Dan Campbell’s fourth-down decisions cost the Lions a Super Bowl berth? Let’s hash it out
Three fourth-down decisions resulting in three positive expected outcomes make it probably safe to say Campbell made the right decisions for his team. I’m confident that if one of the first two plays is a conversion, there isn’t as much criticism being thrown at the Lions’ head man.
However, there are two decisions I think are deserving of some questioning. The first was the decision to kick a field goal on fourth-and-3 from the 49ers’ 3-yard line with seven seconds left in the second quarter with the Lions leading 21-7. Campbell mentioned that he was close to going for it but ultimately decided to turn a two-score game into a three-score game. Unfortunately for Campbell, this decision cost the Lions 4.4 percent in win probability. For context, that was the second-worst fourth-down decision in the playoffs this year only to Campbell electing to punt up 24-23 in the fourth quarter on fourth-and-4 against the Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round.
Campbell’s other whiff came on the play before Williams’ touchdown late in the fourth quarter — the third-and-goal run by David Montgomery with 1:05 left in the game. This decision probably falls on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s shoulders as well as Campbell’s. Regardless of who is more to blame, it was a total blunder.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Lions had found some success catching the 49ers off-guard with runs in passing situations earlier in the game, but this was not the time to risk losing a timeout. And that’s exactly what happened. Montgomery was stuffed for a 2-yard loss, forcing Detroit to burn one of their three timeouts. If Detroit had kept all three, there’s a chance they could have gotten the ball back after forcing the 49ers to punt on an ensuing possession.
Chiefs
Bills
Buccaneers
Lions
Ravens
Dolphins
Packers
Browns
Texans
49ers
Rams
Cowboys
Steelers
Eagles
The decision, per rbsdm.com, cost the Lions 4.7% in win probability. Of course, the Lions’ odds to win the game before third down were just nine percent, so it may not have mattered in the end, but costing yourself more than half of your win probability on one play cannot happen. Campbell might not have any regrets about some of his other decisions Sunday night, but I’m confident he regrets running the ball there.
So while I do think Campbell should be criticized for his decision-making in the NFC Championship Game, I think it should be for decisions to take the points before the half and for running the ball when keeping as much time on the clock as possible was vitally important.
While researching this story, I became curious to see which coaches, during the 2023-24 playoffs, put their teams in the best position to succeed with their fourth-down decisions, as well as the best decisions to go and the worst decisions to kick. Here’s what I found:
2024 NFL playoffs: Fourth down analysis
TEAM
COACH
FOURTH DOWNS DECISIONS CORRECT INCORRECT NEUTRAL (TOSS-UP) CORRECT% WIN PROBABILITY ADDED (WPA)▼GO-FOR-IT WPA KICK/PUNT WPA
Andy Reid
18112584.6%29.8%6.6%23.2%
Sean McDermott
12606100.0%25.8%13.1%12.7%
Todd Bowles
1383272.7%20.1%2.4%17.7%
Dan Campbell
18114373.3%17.7%19.3%-1.6%
John Harbaugh
1492381.8%17.2%6.6%10.6%
Mike McDaniel
6204100.0%10.5%6.8%3.7%
Matt LaFleur
641180.0%9.8%1.6%8.2%
Kevin Stefanski
531175.0%8.1%1.3%6.8%
DeMeco Ryans
1053262.5%8.0%0.0%8.0%
Kyle Shanahan
1022650.0%7.3%0.0%7.3%
Sean McVay
6303100.0%5.2%1.3%3.9%
Mike McCarthy
321066.7%3.1%0.0%3.1%
Mike Tomlin
4103100.0%2.4%0.0%2.4%
Nick Sirianni
712433.3%0.8%0.20%0.6%
Best fourth-down decisions to go
1. Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs: fourth-and-3 at midfield, trailing 27-24 with 4:52 in the fourth quarter.
Result: Josh Allen pass short left to Khalil Shakir to the Kansas City 40-yard line for 10 yards.
Win probability: +7.9%
2. Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: fourth-and-1 on the Tampa Bay 1-yard line, tied 10-10 with 3:48 left in the third quarter.
Result: Craig Reynolds runs up the middle for a 1-yard touchdown.
Win probability: +6.7%
3. Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams: fourth-and-1 on the Los Angeles 2-yard line, leading 14-10 with 7:12 left in the second quarter.
Result: Jared Goff passes short right to Sam LaPorta for a 2-yard touchdown.
Win probability: +6.7%
4. Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs: fourth-and-1 on the Kanas City 44-yard line, trailing 13-7 with 4:35 left in the second quarter.
Result: Tua Tagovailoa passes incomplete short left to Tyreek Hill.
Win probability: +6.2%
5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens: fourth-and-2 on the Baltimore 41-yard line, tied 0-0 with 9:11 left in the first quarter.
Result: Patrick Mahomes passes short middle to Travis Kelce to the Baltimore 28-yard line for 13 yards.
Win probability: +3.9%
Worst fourth-down decisions to kick
1. Detroit Lions vs. Los Angeles Rams: fourth-and-4 on the Detroit 31-yard line, leading 24-23 with 7:18 left in the fourth quarter.
Result: Jack Fox punts 60 yards to the Los Angeles 9-yard line.
Win probability: -4.5%
2. Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers: fourth-and-goal on the San Francisco 3-yard line, leading 21-7 with 0:07 left in the second quarter.
Result: Michael Badgley’s 21-yard field goal is good.
Win probability: -4.4%
3. Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns: fourth-and-goal on the Cleveland 2-yard line, tied 0-0 with 5:29 left in the first quarter.
Result: Ka’imi Fairbairn’s 21-yard field goal is good.
Win probability: -3.9%
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions: fourth-and-1 on the Tampa Bay 34-yard line, trailing 10-3 with 9:51 in the second quarter.
Result: Jake Camarda punts 66 yards into the end zone for a touchback.
Win probability: -3.1%
5. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills: fourth-and-5 on the Buffalo 29-yard line, trailing 3-0 with 4:35 left in the first quarter.
Result: Harrison Butker’s 47-yard field goal is good.
Win probability: -3.1%
(Photo of Campbell: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
Get out of here with your facts and logic! This is the internet!
The writer is wrong. Rich Eisen agrees with me
https://youtu.be/KHm1zDXj2ks?si=wmyOPx-gRP-Q0OIt
Remember what I am saying here (and that Dok and Sharky seem to agree) – nobody is saying Campbell ABSOLUTELY HAD TO make the calls he did. Just that the inverse wasn’t somehow a “no brainer.”
Analytics is meant so coaches make informed decisions – NOT as automonons. You override them sometimes for things like momentum, game conditions (there, the run stopping augured against, but the high scoring nature of the game, for), etc. But you know in the vacuum what the numbers say – so you don’t just instinctively go conservative except when its desperate.
A good process is all you can control. Tough decisions will always backfire SOMETIMES. That’s just life.
Dan Campbell. Long may he (and his Lions) FUCK and FUCK HARD.
This.
Also, humans suck at probability, we can only really understand never and always, and mayyyyybe 50/50 on a good day. If you are acting the same way 100% of the time when the probabilities are not 100% or near it then you are being an idiot, although a very understandable and human idiot.
Good poker players don’t play the same hand the same way every time, and good coaches shouldn’t react the same way to similar yardage/score/time situations every time. Campbell has historically been pretty good at playing aggressively with input from the analytics and team context, so I trust that he considered all the factors people have mentioned when making his decisions and it’s worked well enough to get the Lions here in the first place. He has far more information and context than we do, or even than any journalists or industry people do, so I’m gonna trust him here
You know you can just link to the article, right?
Also Campbell’s decision in the 4th quarter was wrong. I don’t want to hear about analytics, I don’t want to hear about Dan’s aggressive nature, and I don’t want to hear any arguments that make mine look bad. I just want to reiterate that the Lions were down by 3, with 5+ minutes to go, were in FG range, and all of this in a game to decide who would be going to the Superb Owl.
The Lions employ a kicker, presumably for just such an occasion. If I recall it was 4th and a long 3 at that time. Goff was throwing wounded ducks and frequently behind his receivers, and when he was hitting his receivers they were trying to catch the ball while seeming to wear scuba fins on their webbed hands. And they ran it anyway, which was just…what the fuck?
Yes, there is no guarantee that the FG would have been good, but there was also no guarantee that they’d convert 4th down, and as noted above several pretty good reasons based on very recent events to suggest it was less than certain.
I like Campbell, but he was wrong on this one.
Completely agree. Maybe it was a good process but it was still a bad decision.
So, we are all rooting for KC. Good to know.
rooting for a good game
I actually am.
I’m sorry.
Fucking hell. 3-1 before the half and Wrexham will have a major uphill
They’re toast.
I can nae believe this fairly wide-open Afrikan Euros match is still nil-nil.
(Volcano Boiz can has football point now)
FA Cup hijinx for this afternoon: Wrexham at Blackburn Rovers on the ESPN+ at 2:30. Sports Mole says 3-1 Blackburn. What says hippo?
Always bet the underdog in these, Boss!
Did it (extremely modestly), with Soopa-Paul to score a brace. YEEEE-HAAAAWWWW!!!!!
[drives Camaro at top speed through front window of Sports Book in reverse]
Taken outside of tRump Tower this weekend, apparently. Apologies if a repoast.
No apology necessary, it’s still funny. Looking forward to seeing what the tally is for the fraud trial, the verdict should be out soon.
I’m going to guess between 200-210, most if not all of that for Donald himself, much less if anything for his failsons.
I’m hoping for closer to 300, but that’s mostly to increase the rage-related heart attack chances.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10107009-49ers-brandon-aiyuk-credits-51-yard-catch-vs-lions-to-a-ladybug-landing-on-his-shoe
Do they have ladybugs in Vegas? Should we release some?
In my early twenties, I got a job as a “liftie” on a small ski mountain at a mountain resort here in VA. One of the stations was the mid-point for the lift to the top of the mountain. Very few people other than ski patrol ever opted to get off the lift there, so mostly, I’d just sit in a tiny booth, read, hit the bowl in the gaps, awkwardly avoid eye-contact and occasionally throw a little snow on the wooden ramp if it started looking patchy. All I had for warmth was one of those tiny electric, ceramic heat-bomb things. The shack was so small and the heater was so ridiculously powerful that it would go from freezing to unbearable in eleven seconds. The shacks must have been twenty years old at the time, and pretty dilapidated to begin with, so the sudden explosion of heat would cause a biblical plague of goddamn ladybugs to come down all over and around my stoned bug-hating ass. Now there’s skiers riding up this lift going past the mid-station and the guy in the booth is waving a book around in the air and yelling at nobody and why are there bugs flying out of the booth when its January? and holy shit he just knocked his fucking sunglasses off his face! Anyway, I had a story about ladybugs, and that was it. Scene.
Yeah, exactly. No point whatsoever. 🤓
Huzzah, it is Monday after Conference Sunday and NOTHING MATTERS
As far as I’m concerned it’s already the offseason.
Those are the best ones. I just went down a rabbithole looking for a tapestry in the Vatican Museum that Gumby and I liked because there was a cat that looked like our late boy B-2. Millions of pieces of art there, and that’s what we remember!
This is it- Supper at Emmaus
RELEASE THE LADYBUGS!!
Lindsey Graham is all aflutter!
I think this was actually the most boring possible finish out of the entire group of teams going into the playoff, not just the group making it to this weekend.
Even other historically successful teams like the Packers and Steelers were fun to watch with substatially different teams than those that won in the past. Dynasties are so blah for the neutral.
plus it plays into the worst media instincts (SEE, no reason to think or talk about anybody but our pet stars that we fluff)
TayTay is about the only new person and she’s not exactly a stranger to the spotlight. Too bad she didn’t find a guy to date on a less irritating team
You’re so right. Detroit would have had a galaxy of political, musical, historical, and cultural icons from both sides of the aisle to draw from and put on Vegas stages all up and down the strip. And I was really hoping Buffalo was going to find a way this year, because they’d be a fun crew to turn loose in Las Vegas. I already don’t remember who won this one.
My wife said, “If the Niners win, we’re going out to eat on Super Bowl Sunday. I’m not watching this boring shit.” I think she’s mostly joking. Me, I’ll watch but I don’t really care who wins.
Yeah, this is gonna be one of those Super Bowls.
Watching for GAMBLOR’s sake and as an excuse to get together with friends.
Always the correct answer
I’m only in it for the snacks.
Campbell owes the fans of that team an apology. That was reckless, stupid coaching and that franchise may never recover from that loss. Most of those players have an average of no more than 5 or 6 years to play in the NFL if I’m not mistaken, and there is an EXCELLENT chance they will never be in that position ever again. That fucking meathead can still coach twenty more years chasing fourth downs and coaching every fucking game like it’s week 6. Jesus Christ, I’m the furthest thing from a Lions fan and even I woke up pissed off at Dan Campbell today. Fucking moron.
Exactly.
At some point going for all those fourth downs is sending a passive aggressive message to the defense that you don’t trust them to stop anyone. And the cameraman (FOX NFL camera crew should win the Emmy for their playoff work) got an EXCELLENT shot of Badgely looking rightfully disgusted on the sideline. He’s not winning everyone in the locker room over with this swashbuckling horseshit. Just a hunch.
Maybe some franchises are just cursed and will never win a championship. Sorry Buffalo, Detroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota.
[thank their lucky stars for having gotten their Super Bowls out of the way nice and early] – Raiders, Jets, Bears
[presses penis into bathroom stall void]
-Cardinals
Hippo, you know I love you, but the Niners absolutely were given that game by the Lions.
The issues with the decisions to go for it instead of taking the points are two-fold:
1) Momentum is a real thing in sports and specially in big games. Any little thing that is considered a positive will give a team belief and that will change outcomes. To give an example, if Detroit takes three points after SF scored their FG to make it 24-10, it’s back to a three score margin and SF feels like they’re treading water and not making up ground. They get further discouraged. Instead, they get a big stop and that propelled them forward.
2) The Maths are different because the punishment for not getting the first down is greatly increased in big games. Your Expected Value calculation must be different to account for what I said in point one. It is more risky to go for it instead of taking the points.
No. If it’s right in a “normal” game, then it’s right in the championship game. It’s all probability analysis.
The reason why MAYBE you don’t go for it is that Santa Clara was effectively taking away the run option on 3rd/4th and short. THAT is the argument. Not “it’s a big game.”
But remember – momentum shifts every bit as much if you attempt a FG and miss. Which was a VERY realistic outcome. Difficult kicking environment, mediocre kicker situation.
The Aiyuk circus catch followed by a lost fumble to start the very next possession. That was the decisive sequence. One hell of a gut punch flurry. A FG doesn’t change any of that.
And obviously, Tomsulas defend differently on that last drive if their lead is 7 instead of 10. Again, Baby Shanny did the probability analysis of “it’s ok if they score so long as it takes enough off the clock that they have to convert an onside kick.”
Played the percentages, and he was right. You always play the percentages, can’t just second guess based on outcome.
These were not long field goals plus the weather was not that bad. If you tell me that Detroit’s kicker was bad, then I’ll admit that the odds of making the FG are not that great. However, from that distance in those conditions, it was almost a sure thing.
Also, normal games are a completely different thing from championship games. Everything is magnified.
They were in the 45-50 range. There is ALWAYS variable wind in that stadium (not as bad as Candlestick, but still tough). You’d surely kick on 4th and 7, etc. – but 2 or 3? Very close call.
What is magnified is the MEDIA AND FAN CRITICISM. Campbell didn’t coach to insulate himself from that, and good on him.
In real time, I thought all 3 choices were very, very difficult.
Dude, I’ve played in championship games. The pressure on players is amped up. Mistakes become bigger. Emotions run higher. Consequences are larger.
It’s not just media and fans.
It doesn’t change the maths, though. If the pressure is higher on the receiver to catch a 4th down pass, isn’t it just as much higher on the FG kicker?
My point is not that the maths change as far as percentages. It’s that you have to do an expected value analysis and given the larger negative consequences of not converting, the expected value tips over to the FG option.
On the emotions running higher, that argument can go both ways. Campbell took those risks all season while telling the team that he believed in them, thought they could make those plays and that tipped the probability. If he changes course and pulls his offense off the field now he’s saying he DOESN’T believe in them when it really counts. That seems like it would be insanely demoralizing.
This is a very good point. You have to know your team/players, and how they will take it. Goff especially seems succeptible to that, based on how he reacted to McVay’s coaching.
Based on what I have read, I trust that Campbell was using a “good process” with his decisionmaking, not just random bravado or trusting “woo-woo” factors. That’s all you can do. Ride or die.
But he did that at the end of the first half and there were no problems. Sometimes you’ve got to protect players from themselves. Did you notice that once there was one drop there were several?
That was doubt creeping in. It invaded the entire team and that made it more difficult for them to perform.
I’m guessing the end of half calculations are a bit different with only 10 seconds left on the clock and a big lead, and the players know that.
None of us have full context, but going by what I’ve seen and heard over the past year I think the decisions were reasonable.
Note that the Tomsulas’ kicker – who is USED to that stadium – had two kicks roughly in that range. Made it once (43), missed it once (45).
Those were 70-75% odds kicks, not “sure things.” The pass plays were, at worst, 50/50.
Tooth torture was minimalist, now just the torture of waiting to something meaningful to differentiate one day from the next (how do people who do not follow the NFL even stay remotely sane??)
Booze?
Weed. The answer is weed. What was the question again?
NFL ends, fútbol begins. That’s how I keep my sanity.
Plus nic gum 52.1 weeks a year. Aaaah, nic gum 🥰
Fútbol is eternal.
Of course! I’ll watch it year-round after the second stroke, by which time I trust to have worked enough to pay for hospice AND bribing orderlies for drugs.
I should make myself watch fútbol until I like it, because it never goes away.
4 months of Klopp ball-washing though. UGH.
I’m going to start watching US Major League Rugby, if it’s actually televised that is
As much as I would have preferred the Lions, I’m ok with the 49ers knocking off KC
Fair do, Tomsulas likely do have a better shot. What is line. KC -1.5?
I think that was the line as of last night
A quick googling has it the other way; opened at 49ers as 2.5 point favorites.
Yeah I went oh fer two on last night. Chit. Not really caring who wins at this point. Just wanna rest my weary head in JLH’s boobs.
She does seem nice.
“Is that from The Client List? Great show.” – Bobby K., Foxboro MA
Ratbirds got out played and out coached, which is impressive in a way.
Also, has anyone made a “No Way, Ho Zay” shirt yet?
Hippo’s Dentist Appointment (Artistic Interpretation)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOtMizMQ6oM