Eastbound and Waaaay Down: 2026 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Season Preview (and Tuesday Open Thread)

2025 PREDICTION: 9-7-1

2025 REALITY:  8-9, which in Tampa and Atlanta’s case was NOT good enough to win the division.

I bitched about the NFC South last week, so I won’t belabor the point, but imagine a division where a sub-.500 record goes to a three-way tiebreak AND YOU MISS OUT. A true ménage a trois of failure

I made fun of Tampa in last year’s season preview for being utterly content with the status quo: barely winning the Remedial Football division and then promptly exiting the first round of the playoffs with a just-happy-to-be-there wave.

Whelp, the Bucs threw me a curveball by barely NOT winning the division and getting a head-start on missing the second round by not playing in the first round at all. Presumably the Glazers put the money they saved on travel and bonuses toward servicing 23 seconds of interest on their Manchester United debt.

It was especially delicious because Tampa went into the bye week at 6-2, which is NFC South for “insurmountable lead.” We’re not talking about this collapse more because, a. no one can muster half a fuck about this division, including the teams therein, and b. when you compete (technically) with the Falcons, the Choke Artist Throne is permanently occupied.

2026 Big Damn Changes:

Relatively few changes. Again. Again.

They lost Mike Evans to San Francisco and Lavonte David to his recliner. David made the better decision. Imagine being an elderly wideout (33!) coming off a season of three crippling injuries (hamstring, concussion, broken clavicle) and deciding that Santa Clara offers a brighter future. When your choices come down to MRSAville and The Substation, it’s time to pull the big yellow Eject handle, Mike.

Apparently David and Evans weren’t outliers, they were just the first guests at the party to catch a cab. Defensive keystone Vita Vea and offensive loadbearing structure Baker Mayfield both want out too, after the Bucs’ management apparently pissed on both of their contract requests. I’ll concede that the Mayfield thing may be a motivational ploy: Angry Baker might be a better bet than Whatever The Fuck Last Year Baker was. His accuracy went to shit, even though his receivers dropped the fewest balls of his career. Yes, he was missing Old Man Evans and Chris Godwin (again) for most of the season. But Evans is gone and Godwin didn’t get a new cybernetic ankle in the offseason, so Mayfield is likely facing the same situation this year.

Chris Godwin’s full name is Rod Christopher Godwin Jr. Rod God. For a guy who gets assfucked by the Universe as much as he’s been the last couple years, a male porn star name seems a bit too on the nose.

Or wherever.

The secondary was the glaring weakpoint in 2024 and they did essentially nothing to upgrade it in 2025. Unsurprisingly, they continued to get gashed, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most passing defense categories. Accordingly, Todd Bowles has shaken things up by…promoting one of his backup cornerbacks to a starter?

David was the leading tackler on the team and ranked third in sacks behind…Vita Vea. They replaced him with Alex Anzalone from Detroit, which I always read as “Analzone” and therefore fits nicely with the Male Porn Star theme.

On the upside, they drafted Reuben Bain to replace Haason Reddick at outside linebacker. Clear upgrade, even if he has more an Old Jewish Guy name.

SCHEDULE CONSIDERATION:

Per last year:

It must be nice starting a year being spotted 4 wins.

The schedule otherwise is very, very Maybe. They start with the Bengals before Joe Burrow can get injured, but then get home games against the Browns and Vikings. November at night in Chicago could be brutal, but they have one (1) cold weather game in the second half of the season (Baltimore in December).

2026 PREDICTION:

I mean, I’d be stupid to pick anything other than 9-8 or 8-9, right?

I actually think the party is finally over for Todd Bowles in Tampa. Too many years trying the same shit, with the only significant changes being two major departures and the two most important remaining players wishing they could depart.

8-8-1, Bowles get shitcanned.