As we discussed last week, the AFL decided to institute a bye week between the end of the Home and Away season and Finals Week One in an effort to deter teams from resting players and stop allegations of tanking.  This, of course, was a response to what happened last year when Fremantle and North Melbourne petitioned the AFL to allow them to rest many players in advance of the finals. It’s a work in progress so we’ll see next week how it works out.  In the meantime, I have some highlights for you from an exhibition match that the AFL put on to satiate a footy-starved public, a full Finals preview, and a review of how I did in my season predictions.  Let’s just say it was

Welcome to Balls of Steel’s AFL Beat!

We start off with the exhibition game the AFL scheduled to fill the time before the finals.  The EJ Whitten Legends Game  was held on Friday Night in Australia (Friday morning here in North America).  Net proceeds are distributed to the EJ Whitten Foundation and the AFL’s charity partners.  The foundation honours the legacy of EJ Whitten, who died after a long and public battle with prostate cancer.  Since its inception in 1995, the EJ Whitten Foundation has raised more than $9.5m for prostate cancer research and awareness.

The Legends Game brings together a selection of past football greats and current media personalities to play under the banners of Victoria and the All-Stars.  The annual match started back in 1995 at the Whitten Oval, before outgrowing it and moving to the Etihad, where it has been since 2003. Victoria now leads the win-loss ledger at 11 – 9, with one draw after pulling this one out after an Overtime Shootout.  Basically, the teams were tied at the end of regulation and a three-kick shootout ensued.  Let’s watch:

One of the best highlights was Abbey Holmes ignoring Matthew Richardson and choosing to kick the goal herself.  Good for her!

Can you picture Cris Collingsworth, Terry Bradshaw, Howie Long, and all the other ex-players/announcers coming down from the booth, putting on the uniform one last time, and huffing and puffing their way through a real game?   Forget the Directv Celebrity Beach Bowl shit, THAT is something I’d like to see!  I also love that they enjoyed a beer post-game:

More photos are found here.

***

As you may remember, I previewed the season in five installments:  The Bottom Three, The Next Three, The Others that Missed the Eight, the Finals Bottom Four, and the Finals Top Four from last year.  How did I do in assessing their possibilities for this year? Let’s take a look at how I did with my performance being graded on the US elementary school grading system of +, √, or -.

Club: Carlton Blues, 2015 Wooden Spoon Winner

Outlook for 2016: The Blues are starting over with a brand new coach and are benefiting from Essendon’s ban troubles, so it looks like they will be out of contention for the Wooden Spoon this year.  The Blues routinely attract the most members and are among the most popular clubs in the league, so resources should not be an issue.  Look for this to be a rebuilding year with a possible finish in the low teens.

2016 Ladder position: 14

Grade: +

Comment: I pretty much nailed this one as if my name was Peter North.

***

Club: Brisbane Lions, 17th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Lions have had a rough go of it.  They seem to be stuck in a perpetual cycle of bringing up exciting new talent only for that talent to go to other clubs and then starting all over.   Brisbane is by all accounts a beautiful beachside city, so I’m not sure why it’s not a more attractive destination for players. Membership is not high and it is located in Queensland, where other sports are more popular.  It may be a situation like Los Angeles with the NFL.  When you’re winning championships, everything is great, but when you’re not…  Unfortunately, they seem like strong contenders for the Wooden Spoon again this year.

2016 Ladder position: 17th, tied with the Wooden Spoon winners on points and just barely above them on percentage.

Grade: +

Comment: 

***

Club: Gold Coast Suns, 16th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: Much was expected from the Suns in 2015 after a 12th place finish in 2014.  There was even talk of a finals appearance.  That all went down the drain as captain Gary Ablett Jr. went down with injury and the young Suns, while never giving up and always providing excellent effort, could not muster up many wins.  Gary is back this year, but he was old last year and this year may be his last.  This should be a building year for the Suns as they prepare for the youngsters to take over the team leadership in the years to come.  The best case scenario sees Gary healthy and the Suns forging a strong team that threatens to make it to finals.  In the worst case scenario, Gary is out again and the team disintegrates again.

2016 Ladder position: 15

Grade: +

Comment: Gary Ablett, again, went down with injury and missed a significant amount of games.  The injury bug continued as other teammates missed games.  The team had started the year well and proceeded to lose a bunch of games in a row.  Scenario two played out exactly as I said.

***

Club: Essendon Bombers, 15th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Bombers have been hit with severe penalties stemming from the 2012 season.  The Essendon 34 has become a thing and the Bombers will be without key players for this whole season.  For this reason alone, I expect them to win the Wooden Spoon.

2016 Ladder position: Wooden Spoon winners

Grade: +

Comment: To be fair to Essendon, they did the best they could do in a lost season.  There are a lot of positives coming out of this year.  First and foremost, this allowed us to get to know Orazio Fantasia

***

Club: St. Kilda Saints, 14th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Saints are always an intriguing bunch.  I watched many of their games last year and they looked like a team on the rise.  There were some games, though, where you were wondering what happened to the team you saw the week before.  They are incredibly consistent at being inconsistent.  I say they finish in pretty much the same spot this year.

2016 Ladder position: 9

Grade: √

Comment: The Saints were a pleasant surprise this year and they, while still being inconsistent, improved greatly, finished tied with North Melbourne on points, and were left out of the Eight only due to percentage.  The Saints were really just a play or two away in some key games from getting into the Eight.  This is an exciting team to watch next year for sure.

***

Club: Melbourne Demons, 13th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Demons surprised me by finishing as high as they did.  Honestly, I still have no idea how the fuck Geelong lost to them.  AT HOME! I expect the Demons to finish slightly lower in the ladder this year.  They may not be Wooden Spoon material, but I would again be surprised if they finish as high as 13th.

2016 Ladder position: 11

Grade: –

Comment: Color me surprised. The Demons finished 11th, which is higher than 13th if my math is correct.  While they disappointed fans by choking away a possible finals berth in Round 22 and then not showing up against the Cats in Round 23, the rest of the year was promising.  Maybe Demon fans will think twice before going to the spa or their mountain cabin on weekends and will instead go to a game…

***

Club: Collingwood Magpies, 12th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Magpies are actually looking pretty strong and should contend for a Finals spot this year.  They looked set to participate in the finals last year, but a late season swoon doomed the season.  Unfortunately, this has happened the last few seasons (think Cowboys of the last few years), so it remains to be seen if the spell can be broken this year.

2016 Ladder position: 12

Grade: –

Comment: The spell was not broken.  The Pies finished 12th again.  On the bright side, the Pies played really well in the end of the season.  On the not-so-bright-side the Pies’ bad start was too much to overcome.  I’m giving myself a minus here because they were never serious contenders for a finals spot.

***

Club: GWS Giants, 11th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Giants might be on the verge of making their first finals appearance in a short time of existence. Their rise last year was impressive, although unexpected.  My gut tells me the Giants take a step back this year before making a run next year.  They could easily prove me wrong, but I just have a feeling this is where their season is headed.

2016 Ladder position: 4

Grade: √

Comment: I’m giving myself a check here.  I DID predict a first finals appearance!  I just said it would be next year, not this year.  I think this picture applies:

***

Club: Geelong Cats, 10th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: Most media types are hyping the Cats to vault into the top 4 after the free agency period that saw them land their four targets including Adelaide’s star, Patrick Dangerfield.  A lot of things can go wrong, but ,barring catastrophic injuries, the Cats should be able to get back into the finals and possibly make some noise while they are there.

2016 Ladder position: 2

Grade: +

Comment: There were no catastrophic injuries and team looks as deep and healthy as ever.  Too bad we draw Hawthorn in the Qualifying final.  I give myself a

***

Club: Port Adelaide Power, 9th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Power should pick up where they left off and contend for the finals again this year.  Some bad losses late in the year seemingly left them eliminated, but they rebounded to make a large surge and take 9th.  If they can eliminate bad losses to teams they should beat, finals footy is in store for them this year.

2016 Ladder position: 10

Grade: √

Comment: I’m giving myself a check here.  They were in contention, but did have bad losses to teams they should beat, which put them out of contention.  True to form, they played well as soon as they were out of contention.  This year was basically a repeat of last year.  I will make sure to cut and paste this in the 2017 AFL preview posts.

***

Club: North Melbourne Kangaroos, 8th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Roos are looking good to repeat their finals appearance from last year.  The team remains pretty much the same and they have not lost any important contributors.  They should challenge for a top four spot.

2016 Ladder position: 8

Grade: +

Comment: The Roos DID repeat their finals appearance from last year and they DID challenge for a top four spot almost the entire season due to their terrific unbeaten start.  Yes, they did play progressively worse and slipped to 8th and almost out, but they stayed in the Eight.

***

Club: Adelaide Crows, 7th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Crows have a new coach and have lost star Patrick Dangerfield to Geelong. They still have Eddie Betts, though, and the core of the team that battled through adversity last year and made a run in the finals.  I don’t see any way they don’t drop, but the big question is whether they can remain in the top eight.  It will be difficult, but they may just pull it off.

2016 Ladder position: 5

Grade: √

Comment: I’m giving myself a check again.  They actually improved on last year’s performance with a 5th place finish, so they did not drop as I predicted.  I did, however, have them in the eight, so I need to give myself credit for that.

***

Club: Western Bulldogs, 6th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Doggies should again contend for finals footy, but I expect them to drop a bit.  Depending on how clubs like Geelong, Port Adelaide, and Collingwood do, the Doggies may end up on the outside looking in.

2016 Ladder position: 7

Grade: +

Comment:

Spot. Fucking. On.

***

Club: Richmond Tigers, 5th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Tigers, despite having the most glorious mullet in the league, are due for a fall.  Like the Bulldogs and Crows, I expect them to be in the mix for finals footy, but could ultimately lose out to the contenders that just missed out last year.

2016 Ladder position: 13

Grade: +

Comment: The predicted fall came and it was long and it was hard.

***

Club: Sydney Swans, 4th in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Swans lost some key players from last year like Adam Goodes, but they still have Lance “Buddy” Franklin and they have added a bunch of new players.  They should remain in contention for a spot in the top eight, but where they land is a bit of a mystery.  If the new players mesh well and contribute, the team has top four potential.  If they don’t, they could drop to the next four or possibly out of the eight.

2016 Ladder position: 1

Grade: +

Comment: The new players meshed well and contributed, so the team won the regular season title.  They look extremely dangerous going into the finals too.

***

Club: Hawthorn Hawks, 3rd in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Hawks are a dynasty.  Plain and simple.  They will make the eight for sure and probably top four.  It is not out of the realm of possibility for them to win the premiership four years in a row.  BTW, they have appeared in four consecutive Grand Final games having lost the 2012 premiership to Sydney by a mere 10 points.  They are good.

2016 Ladder position: 3

Grade: +

Comment: This was about as easy as predicting the sun would rise in the East, but still. Fucking Hawthorn…

***

Club: West Coast Eagles, 2nd in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Eagles made it all the way to the Grand Final before succumbing to the Hawks’ intense pressure and, also likely, the pressure of playing in the Big Game.  They should come back strong this year, but it largely depends on how the team reacts to last year’s Grand Final loss.  The team will definitely be in finals again.  The big question is whether they have what it takes to take that one last step.

2016 Ladder position: 6

Grade: +

Comment: The Eagles made the finals.  Whether they take that last step is still to be decided.

***

Club: Fremantle Dockers, 1st in 2015

Outlook for 2016: The Dockers have reigning 2015 Brownlow Medal winner Nat Fyfe on the team and are poised to be one of the teams to beat again this year.  They have a bit of a reputation as finals chokers and last year’s finals performance did nothing to take that away.  As with West Coast, the big question is not whether or not they will be in the finals but whether or not they can take the next step and dethrone Hawthorn.

2016 Ladder position: 16

Grade: –

Comment: That’s a big minus but, to be fair, the Dockers lost Nat Fyfe for the year early on and were never the same.  No one saw this dramatic fall coming.

So, let’s add it up… carry the one… Ok, I got 11 + grades, 4 √s, and 3 -s.  That’s a lot better than I did in college, so I’ll take it.

FINALS WEEK ONE PREVIEWS!

We’ll take them in the order that they are played.

2nd Elimination Final – West Coast Eagles (6th) v Western Bulldogs (7th)

Actual Game Analysis: The Bulldogs lost to Fremantle in Perth in Round 23.  They could have pulled a Gold Coast and stayed in Perth for the two weeks before the final and it still wouldn’t do any good.  The Doggies have battled injuries all year and have bravely fought through them.  Unfortunately for them, the West Coast Eagles have started to play their best at the end of the season.  Even the loss of Nic Naitanui for the year (and all of 2017 too!) has not affected them as they rolled over the Crows IN ADELAIDE in Round 23.   The Eagles are the team playing well and should take care of business at home where they are rarely beaten.

Prediction:  West Coast to win.  Easily.

2nd Qualifying Final – Geelong Cats (2nd) v Hawthorn Hawks (3rd)

Actual Game Analysis: The word is that the formula to beating the Hawks has been discovered.  First it was West Coast and then it was Collingwood that attacked the Hawks defenders by isolating them and causing more 1 on 1 matchups instead of allowing defenders to help each other and outnumbering opposing forwards.  Hawks Head Coach Alistair Clarkson, however, has a full two weeks to figure out a way to stem the tide.  In addition, the Hawks DID WIN the Collingwood game, so the formula doesn’t automatically produce results.

On the other side, the Cats are stacked, healthy, and playing really well.   The only problem is that they will not really get the Home Final they deserve as the game has been moved from Simonds Stadium in the city of Geelong to the MCG, the Hawks’ home ground.  The reason is that the MCG fits about 4 times more people than Simonds stadium, which is also under construction for expansion due to this very thing happening in past years.  It does not help that the dimensions of the MCG are different than the Cats’ home ground (affectionately called the Cattery).  Of all the possible opponent/venue combinations, this one is the worst for the Cats.

Prediction:  I will be a homer and say the Cats will win.  They are playing better and Hawthorn has played good enough to win, but the Hawks are not dominating teams.   The Cats beat the Hawks by 30 at the MCG to start the year.  There is no reason they can’t do it again.

1st Qualifying Final – Sydney Swans (1st) v Greater Western Sydney Giants (4th)

Actual Game Analysis:  The GWS Giants have come a long way in a very short time. The addition of Stevie Johnson has done wonders.  The three-time champion has taught the young Giants a thing or two about how teams win championships and the youngsters have been listening.  He himself has contributed greatly with a highly productive season despite his age.  This may be his last ride, so the kids will probably put out full effort in order to send him out in style.  It really is a shame that they are facing the Swans in the first game.  At the same time, it is a tremendous opportunity as they have the double chance.  The Giants, more than anyone, are perfectly positioned to pull the upset.  Beating the Swans would do wonders for the future of the team in Sydney.

The Swans are stacked like the girls in an Andy Sidaris movie

The most likely way that Sydney lose this year is if Buddy Franklin pulls out of the finals like last year due to mental health issues or suffers a devastating injury.  They will be extremely tough to beat.

Prediction:  This will be an extremely hard fought game.  It is easily the best game of Finals Week One.  The game should be close and I think the Swans take it at the end.  It would not surprise me if the Giants somehow spring the upset though.

1st Elimination Final – Adelaide Crows (5th) v North Melbourne Kangaroos (8th)

Actual Game Analysis:  North Melbourne backed into the playoffs after playing like shit the last two months of the year.  Adelaide backed into 5th place by losing to West Coast at home in Round 23.  North Melbourne just told a bunch of its aging stars that they won’t be given contracts next year.  Bad timing or motivational ploy?  I can see both sides, but if I was a Kangaroos player, I’d be pretty pissed.

The Crows should be embarrassed about last week and will have a full two weeks to stew about it.  They are not playing well and neither are the Kangaroos, but let’s put it this way:  The Crows at their best can beat the Roos at their best.  The Crows at their worst can beat the Roos at their worst.  Can the Crows at their worst beat the Roos at their best?  No, but I don’t think they will play two bad games in a row.

Prediction:  The Crows are playing at home and, even though they didn’t play well at all against West Coast at home, should have enough to beat the Roos.

 I’m fully aware that I am revealing my picks to the general public (i.e. Litre_cola) in advance of the deadline for making our Footy Tipping Contest selections.  That’s ok.  That’s how I roll.

See you next week!