Your Monday Evening NHL Second Round Preview & Open Thread

NFL Nuggets:

• Earl Thomas & his winning personality punched his ticket out of Baltimore.
  • It turns out that the Ravens valued a sixth-round pick over a 31 year-old malcontent.
    • The team players’ committee voted to approve of management releasing Thomas.
  • Also, because it was “conduct detrimental to the team”, they will try to recoup his guaranteed salary for this season – $10 million.
    • It would give them a nice salary cap cushion, as voiding the contract saves them $5 million this year & $10 million in 2021.
  • ESPN has a breakdown of the last two years, but barely mentions the fact that Thomas is openly campaigning (again) to sign with the Cowboys.

• The Dolphins will have fans at their home opener.
  • In accordance with state & local laws, attendance will be limited to 13,000 fans.
  • Season ticket holders will get first crack at buying tickets, based on length of tenure.

Stanley Cup Playoffs – Second Round Preview

Since it started on the weekend, it’s a tad late. Still, there’s plenty of room for crack analysis.

Eastern Conference – all games in Toronto

Philadelphia Flyers (1) vs. NY Islanders (6) 

This is the one series that hasn’t started yet, so my analysis & predictions will be pure.

The Flyers had a harder time with the Habs than was expected. Something about the plug & play style they employed to keep things close stymied the Flyers, and forced the series to six games. Giroux & Gostisbehere were not able to take advantage of the open ice, but guys like Hayes & Voracek were able to take advantage of the smaller pairings they faced. Carter Hart showed he’s going to be the #1 through the playoffs, and was able most things coming his way. Ultimately, they wore down the smaller Habs, got enough past Carey Price, and were able to move on.

Well, get ready for more of the same.

Buy, was I wrong about the Islanders. Not about their style of play – that I had nailed. Barry Trotz is nothing if not predictable. If a series requires forcing another team to put on the brakes, that’s what he’ll do, especially when he doesn’t have equivalent firepower to be able to withstand games that become shootouts. Where I was wrong was that the Isles were able to drag the Caps down to their level, which then made them easy pickings. Ovie could never get going; they frustrated Capitals superpest Tom Wilson into more mistakes than usual, and they plugged the goalmouth against Holtby, forcing him to have to look through multiple screens.

What’s likely to end up happening is that we see each team replay the strategy that won them their first-round series: the Flyers will try to beat down the Isles, and the Isles will try to bunch up the middle & keep the Flyers from exploiting their size & speed advantage. Whoever is more successful pulls out the victory.

Conclusion: I still think the Flyers have more overall talent to bring to the ice than the Islanders can prepare for.

Prediction: Flyers in five.

Tampa Bay Lightning (2) vs. Boston Bruins (4) 

They already played each other during the seeding round, with Tampa getting an easy victory. It almost seemed like the Bruins wanted to avoid the Islanders in order to play the Hurricanes. This series is a rematch of the 2018 second-round, which the Lightning won 4-1, and was most notable for Brad Marchand licking Ryan Callahan.

Not much has changed between these two teams in the ensuing years. Marchand is still a pest, albeit a leading scorer type of pest. The perfection line is healthy & leading the team, and the defence was able to stand up to a speedier opponent. The Lightning are still full of gunners, and somehow have enough cohesion to maintain consistent pairings. Brayden Point has emerged as their number one scorer, and was the overtime hero of the first round. And it’s going to be all Andrei Vasilevskiy all the way.

What matters is that they both got out of the first round relatively unscathed. The Lightning were able to finish off the Blue Jackets, avoiding a repetition of last year’s four-game sweep. The Bruins survived Tuukka Rask suddenly heading home (with some charming analysis by the now-departed Mike Milbury) behind a valiant performance by Jaroslav Halak. Now, it’s the Bruins who are the underdogs, having to try and manage to slow down the Lightning’s offensive zone rush. The series will come down to how the Bruins manage the transition after they hold off the Lightning in their zone. If they are able to run an effective counter-attack, a straight-ahead team like the Lightning won’t be able to match the Bruins output.

Conclusion: The Bruins need to get a lead & hold onto it. If the Bolts can build up a lead, then the Bruins are stuck hoping the Perfection Line can drag them back into it.

Prediction: Bruins in six.

Western Conference – all games in Edmonton

Vegas Golden Knights (1) vs. Vancouver Canucks (5) 

What I said about Vegas in the first round holds for the second: They are probably the best team in the league. They have four interchangeable lines, which makes them a game planning nightmare to prepare for. The best case scenario for any opponent is that they can throw off the chaos & force them to have to play a consistent lineup. The one possible area of concern is in net – Marc-Andre Fleury is apparently in a snit about being usurped by Robin Lehner, despite the fact that Fleury has amnesia about his annual case of the yips that forces the team he is on to have to work around his delicate personality.

The Canucks were the surprise of the West in the first round, holding off & dominating last year’s Cup champions. The Lottery Line of Boeser (6), Pettersson (40) and Miller (9) – 6/49 is one of the national lotteries – have combined for 31 points in the 11 games they’ve played so far. Rookie of the Year candidate Quinn Hughes has continued to make his case, and Jakob Markstrom has been fairly solid in net, with only a couple of games where the offense needed to bail out his inconsistency.

On paper, it’s Vegas in a walk. And, if you watched Game 1, you saw exactly what they bring to the table. They have more firepower than Vancouver, and their defence doesn’t need to be as good because of all the scoring. It reminds one of the 1980s Oilers; Grant Fuhr & his 3.5 GAA is in the Hall because Gretzky, Kurri & Coffey were scoring five goals per game. The only hope the Canucks have is that Markstrom got his one bad game out of the way early, and the Canucks can keep things close enough that their third period magic can play them into some tight victories.

Conclusion: As much as I want to believe, facts usually trump fiction.

Prediction: Vegas in Five.

Colorado Avalanche (2) vs. Dallas Stars (3) 

This is the marquee series, if you are fans of end-to-end play & lots of scoring. Both teams have the firepower to pot at least five goals per game. Dallas has scored twelve in their last two – seven to knock out the Flames; five in their Game 1 victory – and they now have a healthy Tyler Seguin back in the lineup on a consistent basis. They roll two deep lines, and have a deadly penalty kill. Both goalies – Khudobin & Bishop – are consistent and able to stay ahead of the few defensive lapses the Stars have made.

The Avalanche roll with the success of Nathan MacKinnon. When he’s able to wheel & deal, the Avs are unstoppable. They are the only team with four players in double-digit points, and have played the fewest games of anyone in the West. However, as Dallas showed in Game 1, if a team can limit his range & effectiveness then Colorado is easily contained. Rookie of the Year candidate Cale Makar is proving himself a stalwart of defence, which will be helpful if Eric Johnson is unable to return to the series. And speaking of nebulous “Lower Body Injuries”, if Philipp Grubauer misses more than one game, that is the thing that will turn the series in favour of the Stars, because Pavel Francouz just doesn’t have the experience to ride out what the Stars are capable of throwing at him.

Conclusion: This series comes down to goaltending, and whether the Avs can compensate for the number of goals the Stars are going to score.

Prediction: Stars in Six.

Tonight’s sports:

• NHL:
  • Philadelphia Flyers vs. New York Islanders – 7:00PM | NBCSN / Sportsnet
  • Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars – 9:45PM | NBCSN / Sportsnet
• NBA:
  • Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers – 6:30PM | TNT / TSN
    • Game 4 – Heat lead 3-0
  • Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trail Blazers – 9:00PM | TNT / Sportsnet1
    • Game 4 – Lakers lead 2-1
• MLB:
  • Cubs at Tigers – 7:00PM | FS1
  • Rockies at Diamondbacks – 9:30PM | ESPN / TSN3
• WWE:
  • Monday Night Raw – 8:00PM | USA / Sportsnet360

Once again, surprisingly, August is turning out to be the best month in sports.