I’m writing this Sunday, April 23rd, and of course by that I mean that I’m re-writing it on Tuesday, April 25th, because the Jets and Packers decided that three days before the draft was the perfect time to pull the trigger on the Rodgers deal and fuck me over.  So thanks for that.

Because there won’t be 5 picks run the first 20 minutes, you see.

As usual I’ll add Peter King’s picks below mine.  Or I would have, if he had done one.  As near as I can tell he has yet to put one up.  If he does I’ll try to update this draft.  MAYBE.

King did do a mock draft, three days ago, but I can’t type fast enough in 12 minutes to add his picks to mine.  His draft can be found here.

 

AUTHOR’S NOTE:  I’m just back from the gym and have learned that the Ravens resigned Lamar Jackson to a 5-year deal.  I don’t know the details because I do not care about the signing, other than that it fucks up my draft.  This thing goes live and you hang me out to dry like this?  Screw you Ravens, and screw you, Lamar.  I could run through and change that pick and all the picks after as needed, but I just realized I don’t get paid for this so I’m not going to.

Also, Todd McShay and Mel both released their final mocks today.  I only remember a few things, notably that they agree on their first ten picks, and only the first one looks like mine.  Notable picks are Houston taking Will Anderson, leaving Mike Bidwill alone and shivering outside of a highway rest stop, (something I’m sure has never happened to him before), Jalen Carter goes to the Seahawks at 5, I think the Colts trade with Arizona and take Will Anderson, Anthony Richardson falls off the planet, and Nolan Smith, a guy I forgot all about, (so guess who the Ravens are picking now), goes to the Eagles at 10.

I’m sticking with my picks, other than Baltimore, because let’s face it I’m pulling these out of my ass anyway.  The important thing is that the draft is here, and it’s time to have a couple of beverages of your choice and second guess your team’s decision-making.

Team needs taken from Josh Edwards, although I only took the top three he listed for each team, because I have things to do.  Josh neither uses nor endorses these picks.

1. Carolina Panthers (from Chicago)

Record: 7-10

Top Needs: Doesn’t matter, they’re taking a QB

The pick:  We’re switching things up right from jump street here at the first pick.  Apparently Alabama QB Bryce Young canceled the rest of his visits after visiting with Carolina.  Carolina is denying that they told Young they were taking him with the first pick but c’mon, Young isn’t a moron.  The coin apparently done me wrong in Version 1.0.  I’ll remember that, metallic currency.

2. Houston Texans

Record: 3-13-1

Top Needs: Doesn’t matter, they’re taking a QB

The pick:  Oh it’s rumor central time, with the Texans apparently spreading the word that “we don’t have to take a quarterback, you know,” and that if they do take a QB it might not be Young or The Ohio State QB CJ Stroud but, as with the first pick, c’mon.  The league revolves around QBs, the Texans need a QB, and Stroud is far and away the best QB prospect available at #2.  Everything else smells like an effort to maybe get someone like the Falcons or Washington to give the Texans even more picks than they already have which, to be fair, they really could use.

3. Arizona Cardinals

Record: 4-13

Top Needs: DL, Edge, RB

The pick:   Alabama Edge Will Anderson remains the pick here, unchanged from Version 1.0.  This is only because I don’t do trades in my mock drafts, because that’s just insane.  My best guess here is that Bidwill, whose sexuality has no bearing on my predictions, is going to trade this pick to a team desperate to get ahead of the Colts and take one of the top 2 remaining QB prospects or, like when the Chicago Bears just had to get Trubisky, the Colts themselves moving up to block someone else from moving up.  Hey, it worked out great for the Bears!  Absent a trade, however, Anderson still seems the best fit here.

4. Indianapolis Colts

Record: 4-12-1

Top Needs: QB, CB, WR

The Pick:  Florida QB Anthony Richardson.  I’m seeing talk about Will Levis, talk about Richardson’s lack of experience and shaky production dragging him down, and all of it sounds like a smoke screen to keep people from leapfrogging the Colts, allowing them to draft Richardson at 4 and not give up multiple later picks just to swap with the Cardinals.  Ultimately I’m most persuaded by the Colts now being coached by the guy who was the OC for Jalen Hurts, to whom Richardson is most compared to.  The NFL loves nothing more than covering up incidents of domestic abuse, but copycatting what worked before is a close second, and it’s about to get Richardson paid.

5. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver, for Russell Wilson, which is hilarious)

Record: 9-8

Top Needs: S, LB, DL

The pick:  The consensus among the more recent picks is Texas Tech Edge Tyree Wilson, and by that I mean I saw exactly one mock that had anyone else going here.  For the records that was Christian Gonzalez, a CB who doesn’t meet any of the top three needs.  I’m keeping Wilson here, but I still like the idea of Seattle trading out of this pick and going after Brian Branch with a later pick, getting themselves some extra picks as well.

6. Detroit Lions (from Los Angeles Rams, for Matt Stafford, 3 boxes of doughnuts, and a Super Bowl)

Record: 9-8

Top Needs: TE, CB, DL

The pick:  I had a fairly lengthy and well-reasoned paragraph here about why the Lions would take Bijan Robinson, the RB out of Texas here.  It was pretty good.  And then the Jets and Packers did their thing and I was scrolling down to see if I had any other thoughts and I said “there’s no way way Dan Campbell passes up the chance to add Georgia DT Jalen Carter, pair him up with Adrian Hutchinson, and just tee off.”  Carter’s got more red flags on him than a May Day parade in Moscow, but this is the NFL and no one cares.  Just a hunch on this one, literally nothing more.

7.  Las Vegas Raiders of Los Angeles vis Oakland

Record:  6-11

Top Needs:  OT, OG, C

The pick:  Horatio, did Kentucky QB Will Levis fall to Rikki’s Raiders? Yes he did, Other Horatio, yes he did.  If this happens, (it won’t), be prepared for some wing-wang wrapped running about the clubhouse.  It’s not a real need, but every NFL franchise loves a flashy new toy, and an NFL franchise in Las Vegas almost needs one, especially when the current starting QB is made of glass.

8. Atlanta Falcons

Record: 7-10

Top Needs: QB, CB, LB

The pick:  Unless they trade up, (which I suspect is likely, not just for Atlanta but for several teams), Atlanta seems unlikely to get one of the top 4 QB prospects.  Version The First had them falling into Will Levis, but I just arbitrarily sent him to the Raiders based on nothing more than a hunch.  Atlanta therefore turns their lonely eyes to their second-most pressing need and takes Oregon CB Christian Gonzalez.

9. Chicago Bears (from Carolina in exchange for the first pick)

Record: 3-14

Top Needs: OT, C, CB

The pick:  Ohio State OT Paris Johnson.  They’re also apparently a very likely landing spot for Carter.  If the Lions don’t take Carter he almost certainly won’t fall past the Bears, despite being overweight, not that interested in practice, and, oh yeah, killing someone(s).  This is too much about what a dick Carter is and not enough about Johnson, (go ahead, giggle, you know you want to), so here’s an article about why the Bears are zeroing in on Johnson.

10. Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans, in exchange for something, probably beignet-related)

Record:  14-3

Top Needs:  S, WR, OG

The pick:  Now that I’ve changed my Lions pick I can go ahead and give the Eagles the pick I wanted to, Texas RB Bijan Robinson.  Not only can you plug a stud RB into the backfield to complement Hurts, the Cowboys are making noise about taking a running back in the first round, and the Eagles love nothing more than fucking the Cowboys over in the first round.  That’s a win-win for Philadelphia!

11. Don T’s Tits

Record: 7-10

Top Needs: OT, OG, WR

The pick:  Tennessee OT Darnell Wright.  No real reason, just that I keep seeing his name as someone who is moving up the boards.  He also fits the Titans top need and he’s a hometown guy.  You like that logic?  This entire mock draft is based on it!

12. Houston Texans (from Cleveland for Deshaun Watson and an absolute moral failing)

Record: 3-13-1

Top Needs: QB, WR, C, LB

The pick:  Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Nijigba.  No change from the first version.  This actually turns into a pretty good draft for the Texans if it works out that way, almost like a Burrows-Chase connection, but with a much worse front office that almost certainly won’t make as much of it as Mike Brown did.

13. Green Bay Packers (From Jets for Aaron Rodgers, a bunch of other stuff)

Record:  8-9

Top Needs:  WR, TE, S

The pick:  Well this is just fucking great.  18 picks shot to hell.  A lot of mocks have Green Bay giving Rodgers one more ‘fuck you’ on the way out the door and taking Smith Nijigba here, but I just sent him to Houston, so that’s not happening here.  This is probably a smidge early, but Boston College WR Zay Flowers probably wouldn’t get past New England at 14 anyway, he has been moving up boards, and he managed to be productive in a Boston College offense that Uconn throttled, so why the hell not.

14. New England Patriots

Record: 8-9

Top needs: OT, WR, TE

The pick:  I actually spent a lot of time here trying to persuade myself that Belichcik would draft Zay Flowers here, but I just can’t do it.  Especially after the Rodgers trade, when I literally can’t.  His track record with first round WRs is abysmal, and that was with Tom Brady.  No, I’m staying conservative, denying a woman’s right to choose, bribing a Supreme Court justice, and taking Georgia OT Broderick Jones here.

15. New York Jets

Record: 7-10

Top needs: OG, OT, TE

The pick:  Part of me wants them to reach for another TE, just so we can see this again, but this trade and my subsequent revisions actually work out pretty well for the Jets, because here they are needing an OG to protect Rodgers, the top two WRs are gone so Rodgers can’t whine about them not taking one here, (he most assuredly will anyway), and there’s Northwestern OG Peter Skoronski right there.  Added bonus I don’t have to change too many picks if this works out.  Make it so!

16. Washington Spiders (I’m still not calling them the Commanders)

Record:  8-8-1

Top Needs:  QB, C, CB

The pick: Penn State CB Joey Porter, Jr.  Washington’s front office is, of course, currently a disaster of epic proportions.  I think that might make them less likely to make a trade, actually, (even though they could use the good publicity.  Hoo boy, could Washington use some good publicity), simply because no one knows who’s in charge, or even who should be answering the phones.  I’ve been seeing Porter going here since Version 1.0, and that doesn’t seem to be changing.

17. Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 9-8

Top needs: OT, CB, WR

The pick:  Illinois CB Devon Witherspoon.  Most draft have Witherspoon going well before this pick, and that’s because most people publishing mock drafts know more about football than I do.  But in this case Witherspoon has dropped a bit, and the Steelers are more than happy to fill a pressing need with his talents.

18. Detroit Lions

Record: 9-8

Top needs: TE, CB, DL

The pick:  Having picked up problem child Carter earlier the Lions take Notre Dame TE Michael Mayer here and send Jared Goff some much needed help, at least until Williams and company get back from the dog track sometime around Week 7.  It’s worth a stab at him anyway.  See what I did there?  Oh screw you, Jamie Lee Curtis thinks it’s funny.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record:  8-9

Top Needs:  S, LB, OT

The pick:  The Bucs apparently really want Brian Branch here, but I think they’ll need to trade up if they really want him, especially with Seattle and Philadelphia in front of them and also needing a safety.  So either they trade up or they move to their other needs.  I like Oklahoma OT Anton Harrison here, just because his hame keeps coming up in all the Bucs mock drafts.

20. Seattle Seahawks

Record: 9-8

Top needs: S, LB, DL

The pick:  My ill-informed hunch about Carter going 6 to Detroit, (or 9 to Chicago; I’m insecure enough to claim credit if he does), keeps Seattle from landing Carter here.  Instead the Seahawks can draft their actual #1 need with the #1 prospect at that position, Alabama S Brian Branch.  This has worked out so well Peter Carroll is going to send George Soros a thank you card.

21. San Diego Chargers

Record: 10-7

Top needs:  LB, OT, DL

The pick:  Clemson DE Myles Murphy .  I almost sent him to Tampa Bay, but he didn’t have his shots so I couldn’t.  Most likely to drop a few spots as Carter moves up and the teams behind the Lions/Bears simply have too many other needs for Murphy to make sense.  But he does seem likely to fit with the Chargers.  Also I kind of forgot about him until now.  Honestly he probably makes more sense for Tampa Bay, but I’m so beyond giving a shit right now.

22. Baltimore Ravens

Record: 10-7

Top needs: WR, OG, CB

The Pick:  Georgia LB Nolan Smith.  I believe I’ve made my reasons clear.  This is hilarious because I forgot all about Smith, he’s likely a Top-10 talent, and the three teams in front of Baltimore need a LB.  There is no chance this should happen, so this will be one of two picks I get right all night.

23. Minnesota Vikings

Record: 13-4 (Total frauds)

Top needs: CB, WR, OG

The pick:   Maryland CB Deonte Banks.  Because the two higher-ranked CBs are gone, and Minnesota still needs a cornerback.  A lot of people like Tennessee QB Henderson Hooker here, but you know who doesn’t like that, huh!?  HUH!?  Anyway, I have the Ravens taking him one pick before and don’t feel like changing this again.  But if they reach detente with Lamar before tomorrow night condor it changed.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Record: 9-8

Top needs: CB, S, DL

The pick:  Georgia CB Kelee Ringo.  Because the three high-ranked CBs are gone, and Jacksonville still needs a cornerback.

25. New York Giants

Record: 9-7-1

Top needs: CB, WR, C

The pick:  Most of the Giants mock drafts have the Giants taking a WR, and Zay Flowers has been getting so much attention lately that I seriously doubt he’ll still be available at 25.  USC WR Jordan Addison still is, however, so this pick remains unchanged.

26. Dallas Cowboys

Record: 12-5

Top needs: OG, S, DL

The pick:  Some are saying that the Cowboys are likely to go defensive line with the first pick, and there are a couple of guys I’ve seen drop on this mock as I’ve replaced them with guys who’ve been moving up since the first version.  So Dallas could do that and get a pretty good player and bolster an already more then decent defense.  This isn’t your father’s NFL, however, and offense rules the roost.  I still like Utah TE Dalton Kincaid here.  Just makes too much sense, so look for Ol’ Double J to draft Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs here.  Which honestly also makes sense with Elliott out and Tony Pollard no one’s idea of a heavy-duty back.

27. Buffalo Bills

Record: 13-3 (one less game because their guy almost died)

Top needs: OG, C, DL

The pick:  The Bills need to replace Tremaine Edmunds, who went to Chicago as part of Chicago’s wholly unexpected “doing a good” offseason.  It’s like a ‘hot girl summer’ for a front office.  Walter Football has Iowa ILB Jack Campbell rated the highest for that position, so I took him.  Also ‘Jack Campbell’ just sounds like someone who should play linebacker in Buffalo.

28. Cincinnati Bengals

Record:  13-3 (one less game because that guy on the Bills almost died)

Top Needs:  OG, S, CB

The pick:  Florida OG O’Cyrus Torrence.  Still available in Version 2.0, still the Bengals supposed most pressing need.

29. New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco via Miami via Denver, which sounds like a Ryanair flight)

Record: 7-10

Top needs: OG, WR, LB

The pick:  I still won’t be surprised if the Saints do take the running back I had the taking the first time around, but a couple of defensive guys have fallen in the second version, and for whatever reason the mocks seem to like the Saints taking a defensive tackle.  I’m not one to argue, so Clemson DT Bryan Berese, come on down.

30. Philadelphia Eagles

Record:  14-3

Top Needs:   S, WR, OG

The pick:  TCU WR Quentin Johnston.  Apparently Johnston was considered the top prospect at WR going into the season, then spent most of it showing that he had trouble catching.  This would be a problem for most teams, as an ability to catch the ball is considered desirable in a WR, but the Eagles employed Nelson Agholor, so a little thing like “paddles for hands” won’t bother them.  He fills a need, the Eagles already have Hurts, AJ Brown, and (if they listened to me), a stud RB in Robinson.  They can take a shot at catching lightning in a bottle with Johnston, which is good because it doesn’t sound like Johnston will be making that catch.

31. Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 14-3.  Won the Super Bowl.

Top needs: Edge, DL, OT

The pick:  The Chiefs can pretty much do what they want as long as they have Patrick Mahomes at QB, and they certainly take advantage of that.  On and off the field, the latter with frequently unfortunate results.  Frank Clark was releases last season, so I’ll go along with the crowd and replace him with Georgia Tech DE Keion Wright.

32.  Miami Dolphins. 

The pick:  Just kidding, they don’t have one because of all that tampering.