banner image courtesy Wikipedia
Good evening and welcome to the Academy Awards live blog and prediction post. I’m your host yeah right. Yeah I’m pulling double duty today but what the fuck ever. It’s Oscar time!
Yes, I do love the Oscars and I watch every year. Live as it airs even! I’ll be watching along with whoever else is watching tonight.
I feel I’ve got a pretty good handle on this year’s awards having seen almost all of the nominated films, Missed the documentaries and shorts and a few foreign language films but I have the biggies covered.
Now we’ll break down the categories and I’ll give a quick highlight or two and venture a guess as we go along.
My predictions will be in BOLD
To the categories!
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
BRADLEY COOPER
Maestro
COLMAN DOMINGO
Rustin
PAUL GIAMATTI
The Holdovers
CILLIAN MURPHY
Oppenheimer
JEFFREY WRIGHT
American Fiction
Bradley Cooper was solid, he basically turned into Bernstein and the scene of him conducting Mahler’s 2nd was fucking stunning. Colman Domingo was outstanding in Rustin. I had never heard of him prior to this movie. Just excellent. Giamatti was his usual self. Played a solid drunk
Cillian Murphy was good but he left me a little cold.
Jeffrey Wright deserves this damn award and I hope he gets it because both his role and the film are the best I’ve seen in some time.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
STERLING K. BROWN
American Fiction
ROBERT DE NIRO
Killers of the Flower Moon
ROBERT DOWNEY JR.
Oppenheimer
RYAN GOSLING
Barbie
MARK RUFFALO
Poor Things
Sterling K Brown was dynamite in American Fiction, DeNiro was better than he has been in a bit but Oppenheimer has too damn much mojo working right now.
Mark Ruffalo will have to console himself with the fact that he got to pretend bang Emma Stone.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
NOMINEES
ANNETTE BENING
Nyad
LILY GLADSTONE
Killers of the Flower Moon
SANDRA HÜLLER
Anatomy of a Fall
CAREY MULLIGAN
Maestro
EMMA STONE
Poor Things
Lily Gladstone was a revelation. For those of us who’ve seen Reservation Dogs we had a little glimpse of her potential prior to this but this award is hers and she deserves it. Annette Bening got nominated because she got into Crossfit. Sandra Hüller was damn good too.
Emma Stone? Girl? Emily baby! You won an Oscar being cute and singing and dancing in Lala Land and you’re jonesing so hard for another that your going to flaunt all your lady bits? Not that I’m complaining mind you. She was damn good too.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
NOMINEES
EMILY BLUNT
Oppenheimer
DANIELLE BROOKS
The Color Purple
AMERICA FERRERA
Barbie
JODIE FOSTER
Nyad
DA’VINE JOY RANDOLPH
The Holdovers
Going for an upset here but Da’vine Randolph was wonderful in The Holdovers. Jodie Foster got nominated because she did Crossfit with Annette Bening
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
THE BOY AND THE HERON
Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki
ELEMENTAL
Peter Sohn and Denise Ream
NIMONA
Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary
ROBOT DREAMS
Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz
SPIDER-MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE
Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal
No idea on this one having seen exactly none but littlest right dug Spider-Man so there.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
NOMINEES
EL CONDE
Edward Lachman
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Rodrigo Prieto
MAESTRO
Matthew Libatique
OPPENHEIMER
Hoyte van Hoytema
POOR THINGS
Robbie Ryan
Here comes the Oppenheimer train rolling down the goddamn track. Killers of the Flower Moon could easily win this as well.
The vision and “eye” of Poor Things was incredible. Very bold and Tim Burton like.
COSTUME DESIGN
NOMINEES
BARBIE
Jacqueline Durran
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Jacqueline West
NAPOLEON
Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
OPPENHEIMER
Ellen Mirojnick
POOR THINGS
Holly Waddington
It’s got to be “Barbie” right? I think it gets its only win here.
DIRECTING
NOMINEES
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Justine Triet
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Martin Scorsese
OPPENHEIMER
Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS
Yorgos Lanthimos
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Jonathan Glazer
Come up and get your hardware Nolan. Jonathan Glazer will get his one day but not for Zone of Interest. Yikes that was a tricky watch.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE’S PRESIDENT
Moses Bwayo, Christopher Sharp and John Battsek
THE ETERNAL MEMORY
Maite Alberdi
FOUR DAUGHTERS
Kaouther Ben Hania and Nadim Cheikhrouha
TO KILL A TIGER
Nisha Pahuja, Cornelia Principe and David Oppenheim
20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL
Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner and Raney Aronson-Rath
Haven’t seen any of these but this pick feels right.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
NOMINEES
THE ABCS OF BOOK BANNING
Sheila Nevins and Trish Adlesic
THE BARBER OF LITTLE ROCK
John Hoffman and Christine Turner
ISLAND IN BETWEEN
S. Leo Chiang and Jean Tsien
THE LAST REPAIR SHOP
Ben Proudfoot and Kris Bowers
NǍI NAI & WÀI PÓ
Sean Wang and Sam Davis
See previous comment.
FILM EDITING
NOMINEES
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Laurent Sénéchal
THE HOLDOVERS
Kevin Tent
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Thelma Schoonmaker
OPPENHEIMER
Jennifer Lame
POOR THINGS
Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Thelma Schoonmaker has been working with Marty for 50 fucking years and she definitely knows what the fuck she’s doing. For the record this was my second favorite film of the year.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
NOMINEES
IO CAPITANO
Italy
PERFECT DAYS
Japan
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
Spain
THE TEACHERS’ LOUNGE
Germany
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
United Kingdom
Random observation; any time a film is up for best picture and best foreign film, it never wins best picture but almost always wins best foreign film. That’s my logic and I’m sticking with it. Society of the Snow was very well done and was the only other “International” film I watched besides The Zone of Interest.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
NOMINEES
GOLDA
Karen Hartley Thomas, Suzi Battersby and Ashra Kelly-Blue
MAESTRO
Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou and Lori McCoy-Bell
OPPENHEIMER
Luisa Abel
POOR THINGS
Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier and Josh Weston
SOCIETY OF THE SNOW
Ana López-Puigcerver, David Martí and Montse Ribé
Formatting got a bit fucked up there but I think Poor Things gets its win for this.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
NOMINEES
AMERICAN FICTION
Laura Karpman
INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY
John Williams
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Robbie Robertson
OPPENHEIMER
Ludwig Göransson
POOR THINGS
Jerskin Fendrix
Sentimental award here since Robbie Robertson passed away right after finishing the score and just prior to the movie release. It’s earned though, the score was fucking incredible.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
NOMINEES
THE FIRE INSIDE
from Flamin’ Hot; Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
I’M JUST KEN
from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
IT NEVER WENT AWAY
from American Symphony; Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
WAHZHAZHE (A SONG FOR MY PEOPLE)
from Killers of the Flower Moon; Music and Lyric by Scott George
WHAT WAS I MADE FOR?
from Barbie; Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Basic rule of thumb? Never bet against Billie Eilish.
SOUND
NOMINEES
THE CREATOR
Ian Voigt, Erik Aadahl, Ethan Van der Ryn, Tom Ozanich and Dean Zupancic
MAESTRO
Chris Munro, James H. Mather, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
OPPENHEIMER
Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A. Rizzo and Kevin O’Connell
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Tarn Willers and Johnnie Burn
Slight upset here but the sound for Maestro was basically the selling point wasn’t it? Zone of Interest also has a strong chance because the background sounds were basically the reason the film got here.
VISUAL EFFECTS
NOMINEES
THE CREATOR
Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts and Neil Corbould
GODZILLA MINUS ONE
Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima
GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 3
Stephane Ceretti, Alexis Wajsbrot, Guy Williams and Theo Bialek
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART ONE
Alex Wuttke, Simone Coco, Jeff Sutherland and Neil Corbould
NAPOLEON
Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould
Pure conjecture on my part having seen not a damn one of these films.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
AMERICAN FICTION
Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
BARBIE
Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
OPPENHEIMER
Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
POOR THINGS
Screenplay by Tony McNamara
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
Written by Jonathan Glazer
Have you seen American Fiction? Watch American Fiction!
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
NOMINEES
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Screenplay – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
THE HOLDOVERS
Written by David Hemingson
MAESTRO
Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
MAY DECEMBER
Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
PAST LIVES
Written by Celine Song
Strictly a hunch here. Past Lives was a wonderful film.
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES
AMERICAN FICTION
Ben LeClair, Nikos Karamigios, Cord Jefferson and Jermaine Johnson, Producers
ANATOMY OF A FALL
Marie-Ange Luciani and David Thion, Producers
BARBIE
David Heyman, Margot Robbie, Tom Ackerley and Robbie Brenner, Producers
THE HOLDOVERS
Mark Johnson, Producer
KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON
Dan Friedkin, Bradley Thomas, Martin Scorsese and Daniel Lupi, Producers
MAESTRO
Bradley Cooper, Steven Spielberg, Fred Berner, Amy Durning and Kristie Macosko Krieger, Producers
OPPENHEIMER
Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan, Producers
PAST LIVES
David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon and Pamela Koffler, Producers
POOR THINGS
Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe, Yorgos Lanthimos and Emma Stone, Producers
THE ZONE OF INTEREST
James Wilson, Producer
If I’m ranking this list in the order of my favorite movies this year it would be:
American Fiction. Just watch this ok?
Killers of the Flower Moon. A bit lengthy but very well done. Beautiful, horrible and a great soundtrack.
Poor Things. See above about Emma Stone’s lady bits also this will be one of the most quoted and memed movies ever. Just watch.
The Holdovers. Nothing world shaking but a really solid heartfelt film. Great cast and solid acting. *just read the plagiarism thing and “woof” if that’s true*
Oppenheimer. No disrespect, it was gorgeous to behold but the characters were cold and they could have trimmed the “hearings” element down by a good 45 minutes.
Past Lives. A terrific watch. You may get a little teary eyed.
Barbie. I thought it was fun and clever but I could see how some folks just wouldn’t get it.
Maestro. I very much enjoyed this movie but it wasn’t a big audience film. Felt like it existed for one scene.
The Zone of Interest. Creepy as fuck. Disturbing. Very well shot and directed. Unsettling. You probably won’t share the fact that you watched it. Unique take on a hard subject.
Anatomy of a Fall. Very good film. Beautiful location. Great filmmaking. Just not that compelling of a story.
Now let’s watch the program and see how we all did.
Where’s my bougie pinot noir?
Bad Bunny was an inspired choice to read something written in English.
If John Cena ran out and walloped The Rock with a chair right now this would be the best Oscars ever, and the second-most violent, right after last year’s.
Okay, I’m off to watch Real Madrid demolish a lesser mortal team.
Be back in two hours. We’ll probably have about ten categories left by then.
There’s not a chance in hell this doesn’t win for Best Song.
This is who should win for Best Song.
(Paul Song, who became the internet’s main character for a day when he referred to Hillary Clinton as a “corporate whore”)
Yes, very brave to help Trump.
I mean, he’s not wrong.
Opened the fridge and called an audible, kind of like Warren Beatty announcing Best Picture.
Enjoy La La Land!
Man I wish I had more
Funny you should say that…
Misses for both our heroes!
MIS: 6/8
YR: 3/6
Looks like we all picked Barbie for Costumer.
(looks at all the dolls arranged carefully on my shelves)
Sorry everyone.
Spam’s Can, dramatic re-creation:
OK, the Cena bit was great.
Yes, it was.
He’s got quite the set of cum gutters on him.
Yeah, but did he know the true joy of demolishing three doughnuts today?
I think not, but I do.
Another Trans category for Yeah Right. Another hit for Make It Snow.
MIS: 6/7
YR: 3/5
Hang on, not for Costume? I had Barbie.
Production Design. You picked it correctly and Yeah Right didn’t pick.
Oh okay, I think my award count is off.
I mean, just look at Poor Things. Look at that shit. With respect to Barbie‘s entire look, anything else would have been unjust.
I’m going to have to watch that.
Both hit again!
MIS: 5/6
YR: 3/5
The people in charge of make-up in Poor Things made Emma Stone look unattractive, so they clearly did the best job.
Gonna share tonight’s cocktail since most folks here aren’t on Bluesky.
The Barbenheimer
1 oz tequila
1 oz Aperol
1 oz Ancho de Reyes
1 oz lime juice
3 dashes chili bitters
Rinse glass with absinthe, rim with tajin, shake and serve.
I’m opening a King Julius soon.
Hell yeah.
I liked the first two episodes of the Shogun remake.
I got invited to watch the Oscars at Jack Nicholson’s house up on Mulholland, as usual. I’m there now after my flight from DC.
I got here a little late but Jack is still happy that Mammy from Gone With the Wind won her second Oscar.
Try not to leave so many dead hookers lying in the foyer when you leave this time, Brick.
I watched ‘The Gambler’ in Netflix last night. James Caan starred. He’s dead and the movie was from 1974. I think I’m pretty much up to speed for tonight.
/It was not good.
If Billie Eilish performs with her brother, she should use the name Ferb.
They’re gonna do it all.
With a platypus.
American Fiction was by far the best movie I’ve seen in a while.
Great fucking speech.
This is tonight’s first win for Old Gawker.
“I don’t want to be vindictive, but FUCK ALL Y’ALL, I’M TAKIN’ HOME A GOLDEN STATUE!!!!!”
Both hit!
MIS: 4/5
YR: 2/4
I feel extremely lucky to have gotten through the screenplay categories unscathed. Those were both tough.
Back on the board.
Wait, did Glazer write Zone in German? Does he speak German?
I know the dialogue is in German but I guess I assumed he had someone translate that.
Hey ESPN, when someone makes picks and then creates a group, why would they have to manually add their picks to that group?
I’m 2 for 5, fwiw. I think you all know I’ll be honest.
Can’t you add your picks to the group now?
Don’t know. Can try.
I haven’t seen any of these movies this year, so I’m logged in and ready to criticize every single winner with some of the most uninformed bullshit imaginable.
Make It Snow hits again!
MIS: 3/4
YR: 1/3
Okay this the only chance I’ll get to talk about May December but that shit was wild.
Screenplays get the Fat Girls?
That’s a tough miss. The Boy and the Heron looked beautiful and, when necessary, horrifying, but narratively I didn’t think it was close to one of Miyazaki’s best.
I agree, and I’d argue may be a bit of a lifetime award. Still gonna be happy for it and him, even if Suzume was my favorite animated movie of the year by a hair.
I see Yeah Right avoided the Animated Short category just like I avoided the Trans categories.
Smart move.
I had a very graphic “nukular annihilation” dream last night (a soldier shooting me in the head, after I confirmed was suffering from the blast effects – that’s what woke me up for the day), so perhaps this bodes well for MC Oppie?
First miss. That’s what happens when you don’t watch.
We all missed it (except BFC, who did the smart thing and make no picks)
What the shit
I saw it in theater yesterday and still missed. What can you do?
Both of you missed that.
Yeah Right: 1/2
Make It Snow: 1/3 (actually 2/3!)
I should be 2/3: I didn’t like War Is Over!, but I picked it.
You are correct, sir! 2/3!
Hell yeah it’s the shorts, time for snow to get mad!
So here’s the thing about War Is Over!: It’s dumb as hell.
I don’t really understand an ad where the premise is “we hired Arnold Schwarzenegger but his accent is a problem”
BFC (in the ESPN pool) going with the brave strategy of not picking the first award, let’s see how it plays out.
That must be user error.
Wait it shows in my end that I picked her!
Your Canadian girlfriend is happy to vouch for you.
Mante Teo is killing it in this year’s contest!
The group standings said you have made zero picks.
Maybe you have a different entry? One that’s not in the group?
Yeah Right and Make It Snow are both one for one!
She was really damn good.
Terrific. I could have seen an argument for Danielle Brooks, but this was the right call.
First no brainer win of the night.
Of course they have the black actress talk about the black actress. Of course they do.
Who let the Wicked Witch of the West in?
Security tried, but she said, “What are you going to do? Drop a house on me?”
Peewee tried to keep her out
Jody Foster out there NOT inspiring an assassination attempt.
I don’t know. It’s really too early to say.
I think of Oppenheimer, Maestro and Nyad as 2023’s Messy Bitch Trilogy.
Messi a goddamned hall of famer.
Better actor than Tim Allen.
Holy shit I’m watching the Red carpet and every single person has a face you want to punch.
School of fake laughs.
Here are my picks. Asterisk next to my preferences if they don’t match my predictions.
It’s an asterisk because opinions are like assholes.
If only the compilers of the OED had slipped in a little ‘mistake’ and spelled it “assterisk”
I get so tired of Oscars going to whichever actor was in the hottest biopic for the given year. It’s not “acting”; you’re not bringing a character to life. You’re just doing a really good impression.
Not sure I see the distinction, isn’t it the same skill set? And I can see it being technically more difficult because people are familiar with the genuine article and will be quick to notice anything that’s off
That’s like saying it’s more impressive to forge a piece of art than it is to paint an original one. And I suppose in some sense it is, but the first is a pure display of technical proficiency, whereas the second requires actual creativity and inspiration.
So would you say that fan fic doesn’t require creativity or inspiration because the characters and universe were already developed by someone else?
Even in a biopic they’re portraying scenes and events that originally happened in private, there’s nothing direct to work off there, so I would say it’s more analogous to trying to paint in someone else’s style than it is to making an exact copy.
Fair point. I was looking through past years and it’s not as much of a lock as I thought, only about 50% of the awards since 2000 have been for biopics.
I mean what you’re describing is basically what Weird Al does with lots of his non-parody material, and I certainly wouldn’t question *his* talent.
They made a movie about The Maestro? Was it mostly about sandwiches?
(I have seen exactly zero of any of these, as is usually the case)
This is a nominee for Banner Post on Oscar Night 2024.
I’ve seen Oppenheimer, Barbie, and The Holdovers. Of them I was the most impressed by The Holdovers, but that is in part because I didn’t have much in the way of expectations going in. I didn’t expect it to suck or anything, but I was really, really impressed with it.
Why would you say you didn’t see all the nominees???
The only major miss was The Color Purple.
For best supporting actress. I got the rest of the main categories.
Did you see all of the AVN nominees?
Of course! My previews have INTEGRITY!
Of all these nominees, I’ve only seen Oppenheimer. I’ve never heard of most of the rest.
In the VFX section, the first name listed (for “The Creator”) is Jay Cooper, who I started out with at a VFX company in Hollywood. I haven’t seen him in years but I know he remembers me. I don’t give a shit about his Oscar nomination that he won’t win, but in VFX an Oscar nomination is often better for your career than a win. I know two guys who won VFX Oscars and barely ever worked again. Crazy business.
Weird, any particular reason that a win leads to less work? Voluntary retirement hopefully
My guess:
They think they’re hot shit and start charging more just because they won. Meanwhile, everyone else is just as good if not better and they charge their regular rates.
I’ve seen that happen in academia, so why the hell not in Hollyweird.
Exactly. VFX IS “below the line” and producers perceive that an Oscar winner is out of their budget/control. Unless you are a department head at a big VFX studio,for an independent a win can be a curse. Perception is everything. A nomination, on the other hand, is all gravy with no baggage. It’s not like an Oscar comes with a cash prize; it’s just an industry awarding itself.
Gentlemen!
I’m finishing Robot Dreams now, at which point I’ll have watched the entire field for the first time in a while. So I’m gonna have some shit to say tonight.
Welcome!
Fun Fact: “Robot Dreams” is Eli’s response when Olivia has to wake him from nightmares after a Transformers movie marathon.