But Then Again, Who Does?: 2024 Buffalo Bills Bye Week Update (and Open Thread)

2024 PREDICTION: “11-6, playoffs. It’s gonna hurt, but I am Ready to Love Again.”

HOW’S THAT GOING?: 9-2!

Well this is an odd development. In a reversal of Modern Bills SOP, they’ve beaten the teams they are supposed to beat. They’ve played four likely playoff teams, winning two and staying close with a third on the road. Unfortunately, they played the Ravens on one the weeks that the Good Ravens showed up. So be it.

They’ve been doing it in a variety of ways, as well. The defense isn’t particularly highly rated in any major category, but has been Clutch. Turnovers when they count. Big defensive stops. They’ve been playing a LOT of Cover 2 Shell and they blitz very little, which makes for a bend-don’t-break pattern that has served them relatively well.

The offense…well, some have called it “inconsistent,” but that’s not quite accurate in the Ravens sense of “it’s either really working or it’s not working at all.” It’s more like Dissociative Offensive Identity Disorder- some weeks they are a running team, some weeks they look like a classical West Coast offense, and some weeks (not many) Josh Allen is Unleashing the Dragon like its 2022.

The unofficial offensive motto prior to the season was “everybody eats,” in an apparent rebuke to Stefon Diggs and his “I need my stats” attitude. And that’s actually what’s happening. No Bills receiver is averaging over 60 yards per game. A different receiver is going off every week, which is good since 1. injuries have been rife, and 2. it’s got to be giving defensive coordinators absolute fits. James Cook is making a strong case for the Pro Bowl, and Ray Davis is showing the value of complementary running styles. On the whole, although it’s still fun to watch, it’s not as spectacularly explosive as in prior years.

That said, it’s also not as spectacularly exploding as in prior years. Josh Allen is taking very few sacks (3.69% of dropbacks) and has thrown only 5 interceptions. There’s a lot more Yards After Catch, suggesting both a change in play-calling (getting receivers open in space) and Allen hitting his guys in stride instead of constantly throwing rockets to thread the needle. It feels more grinding and demoralizing to the defense, more…inevitable. They convert a lot on third down, and they convert 85% of the time on fourth down.

Provided Sean McDermott continues to allow the offense to cook, there is reason to believe Buffalo could have home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Coming off the bye they have a Sunday night game in Buffalo against the reeling Niners, then a road game against the actually-inconsistent Rams in the KroenkeDome- both very winnable. Detroit is a tough nut to crack, but the final three games (Pats, Jets, @Pats) should be downhill sledding. KC and Baltimore, by contrast, each have four likely playoff teams left on the schedule.

SO HOW’S IT GONNA END?: Perhaps this is it. Perhaps this is the time. 14-3, Super Bowl.