To Become Like Little Children: 2026 Buffalo Bills Preview (and Tuesday Open Thread)

“The first words that are read by seekers of enlightenment in the secret, gong-banging, yeti-haunted valleys near the hub of the world, are when they look into The Life of Wen the Eternally Surprised.

The first question they ask is: ‘Why was he eternally surprised?’

And they are told: ‘Wen considered the nature of time and understood that the universe is, instant by instant, recreated anew. Therefore, he understood, there is in truth no past, only a memory of the past. Blink your eyes, and the world you see next did not exist when you closed them. Therefore, he said, the only appropriate state of the mind is surprise. The only appropriate state of the heart is joy. The sky you see now, you have never seen before. The perfect moment is now. Be glad of it’”

Thief of Time, by Terry Prachett

2025 Prediction: “Fuckit. Charge the wall again. 12-5. Super Bowl.”

2025 REALITY: 12-5. Not Super Bowl. That’ll teach me to attempt optimism.

No Josh. I’m sorry, I can’t. Faith is now beyond me.

That was the high point of the season. We kept tripping over easily-avoided obstacles like the Atlanta Fucking Falcons and Bo Goddamned Nix, usually through elaborate self-sabotage more appropriate to Wile E. Coyote or the Browns front office.

So this year, I renounce Hope. I deny Belief. I reject Anticipation in any form, be it positive or negative. This is not hopelessness; I do not re-enter the familiar embrace of Crushing Cynicism. 35 years ago, I watched a kick sail wide right. 26 years ago, I watched the officials ignore the forward movement of a “lateral” to award a playoff win to Tennessee. A mere nine years ago, I watched Nathan Peterman start two games at quarterback after trading the Patrick Mahomes pick to Kansas City. Once you have known that level of pain, concepts like “we missed our championship window” just doesn’t hit you with the same force. Yes, negativity is the general style of most of our Team Previews, but that is as much a function of our writers (this site tends to self-select for depressive neurotics) as any actual fatal flaws in the teams- AFC and NFC South excluded.

No- instead, I choose to enter this season with zero expectations. I shall be as Wen: eternally surprised, no matter what comes.

2026 Big Damn Changes:

The Bills this year are kind of a strange Ship of Theseus problem: how many pieces can you replace while still remaining the same basic Just Good Enough To Putz Out In The Playoffs team?

Sean McDermott was fired in a fit of post-loss pique by Terry Pegula. Upon reflection that such action may have been hasty in light of the Bills’ struggles to even be respectable under any other coach this century, Pegs decided that continuity was important. So he kept (and promoted!) Brandon Fucking Beane, promoted OC Joe Brady to head coach, and the team switched defensive systems wholesale from 4-3 to 3-4 under first-time DC (and Bills alum) Jim Leonhard.

The offense is Mostly the Same- DJ Moore is here, which is an Improvement but not by as much as what he cost.

The defense, which was terrible against the run and great against the pass, is now likely to be mediocre against both. A lot of Buffalo’s home-grown defensive talent (and we love nothing so much as a gritty underdog home-grown defensive player- see undrafted free agent Jim Leonhard) got jettisoned in the system switch: god-tier nickelback Taron Johnson, penalty machine Taylor Rapp, gritty white Boston College linebacker Matt Milano, etc. Of these, Johnson is the one I actually mourn- I refuse to believe he couldn’t find a major role in the secondary even in a 3-4.

There is genuinely no predicting how this will go. Leonhard is an unknown quantity, how the existing players will fit in the new scheme is unclear, and preseason defensive playcalling tells you absolutely nothing about either.

Oh, and Josh Allen is now a Girl Dad, which will either reinforce his existing Hulk Powers or dangerously undermine his T-Levels.

Schedule:

Fuck’em! Weeks 1-5 are all against winning teams from last year- all playoff teams except the 9-8 Lions.

In addition to their yearly AFC East opponents, the Bills play the NFC North, AFC West, Balmore, the Rams and the Texans.

The NFC North is a crapshoot- the Packers look like they may struggle and the Lions will likely be decent-to-good, while the Bears and Vikings are on opposite ends of the “Was Last Year A Mirage?” seesaw.

The Ravens will be better. The Texans defense could end our season in Week 1. The Rams are going to be a Problem.

That said, the schedulemeisters did the Bills a few favors:

1. Weeks 2-4 are at home. That gives them an extra week to fix the turf and relatively little travel in a tough part of the schedule
2. They get the Raiders before a relatively early bye week
3. They end the season with two (hopefully) cake games against the Dolphins and the Jets. So they may be able to heal up before the playoffs.

2026 PREDICTION:

None. No predictions. No expectations. Not even vibes.