DFO, Money comes in

As I had mentioned earlier, it is high time that we all received some highly dubious but yet highly profitable (MAYBE!) gambling advice from an invisible internet friend or two.  As someone who has a lifetime gambling record of having won more than lost, I feel I am qualified to lead this effort and I look forward to being publicly embarrassed in the weeks to come.

As I mentioned the first time, one of the things I’ve always thought was a mistake in these type of columns/posts was the tendency for the writer to pick every game.  That’s stupid. No gambler does that.

Instead,  we will hand-select games each week and keep track of the bankroll so you know exactly how shitty our picks are!  We’ll start out with a bankroll of $200 (reasonable for a normal person that doesn’t have a Saturday morning/Sunday morning radio show) and go from there.  Joining me on this adventure will be WhyEaglesWhy, who also has some positive experience with placing wagers and who lives in a country that not only allows legal internet gambling, but whose football league actually has a gambling partner!  Also joining me will be King Hippo and our fearless leader, DTZM!

We will use the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest odds as posted on the Westgate website as the basis for our weekly picks.  Those lines are posted each Wednesday at 5 PM Pacific and do not change.  This will ensure that we all pick from the same line.  This post will go up each Thursday promptly at noon Pacific time.

I will track our process throughout the season and I vow to you all that if I lose the $200 BEFORE the end of the regular season, I will do something extremely embarrassing of the Commentists’ choice.

Given that, here are our picks:

Balls of Steel

I’m not a big fan of picking games in Week One since we really do not know how good teams are, but a couple of games stick out for me:

San Diego -3 over Detroit – It’s a long road trip and Matthew Stafford will be too full of delicious fish tacos to put up much of a fight. Stake:  $11 to win $10

Minnesota -2.5 over San Francisco – It’s also a long road trip for the Vikings, but the 49ers are a dumpster fire.  Two and a half points is nothing. Stake: $11 to win $10

WhyEaglesWhy

I’m pleased to join DTZM, King Hippo, and Balls Of Steel in a weekly reveal of my baser instincts. I like gambling on football. This will be my fourth season of betting the NFL, and I’m happy to say I’ve been consistently (if barely) over .500 (the announcement of which surely jinxes this season’s efforts). I’m glad our fake season bankroll is $200, because sadly that closely resembles my real-life season bankroll. Remember kids, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Ravens +4.5 over BRONCOS – I’m very high on the Ravens this year, and very wary of the Broncos (sorry, King Hippo). I think there’s an opportunity for some value here in Week 1 before these teams show who they really are. Stake: $11 to win $10.

Chiefs +1 over TEXANS – The Chiefs may have Alex Smith at QB, but the Texans don’t even have a QB. I believe they’re running the wishbone, which is difficult when your top running back is injured and your backup running back is terrible. Long story short, the Texans are undermanned on offense and the Chiefs D is ferocious. Not to mention that the Texans have karma coming their way for cutting Charles James III. Stake: $11 to win $10.

DTZM

Get ready to laugh, you guys.  It’s time for a dumb guy to pick football games.  Listen, in my timeline, football (and every other sport) was outlawed by Lord Screech, so I’m glad to be here, where I can still watch mutated monster freaks bash each others’ skulls in for my entertainment.  A couple of games stood out to me:

Seattle -4 over St. Louis – Holy hell, have you seen the Rams this preseason?  And Gurley and Tre Mason won’t play?  I wouldn’t bet the over of 43, but if the Rams score 10 points, I’ll be shocked.  SHOCKED I SAY.

Baltimore +4.5 over Denver – With Peyton Manning continuing to deteriorate, they brought in Gary Kubiak to turn the ship around.  Gary Kubiak is a moron.  I’m not surprised that the Bowlens missed that though, since nobody cares about the Texans and they were busy getting arrested for shit all offseason.  Denver may be playing at home, but this is the kind of game Baltimore thrives on, the revenge/disrespect game.

Both of these will, of course, be wrong.

King Hippo

Let me state at the outset that betting on the NFL is a mug’s game.  There’s NO FUCKING WAY to get an edge.  Information overload, everybody knows all in all regions of the country.  People are less prone to bet on brand recognition and dumb loyalty than they are at the university level.  Every time I look at the NFL lines, I go “Gee, that seems about right.”  Worry not, I will still talk amply out my arse and give you the HAWT TAEKS you have come to love and expect from teh interwebs.

BEARS +7 over Packers – Jeebus, is Green Bay the Bill Walsh-era 49ers?  Are the Bears the non-peak Brunell Jaguars?  I’ve watched lots of Panthers and Broncos games.  John Fox is not a perfect NFL coach.  But he’s not Rich Fucking Kotite, either.  He’ll definitely put you on the express train to respectable.  This line, in a home opener in a rivalry game?  Slap in the fucking face, I’ll break ranks and bet $22 to win $20, I am so outraged (ie, bet your kids’ college fund on the Packers)

RAIDERS +3 over Bengals – I have predicted the Raiders to be the AFC’s 2nd wild card, and the Bengals to finish 8-8 and miss the post-season.  Thus it stands to reason that this game would make all the difference, no? Plus, the line says the striped pylons are close to a full touchdown better than Oakland IN WICHITA!!! and I just ain’t buying that particular brand of bullshit. It’s a brave new world out there, crackheads and methheads, and other assorted denizens of Alameda County!  Bet $11 to win $10.

Tracking Tables

Picks are in Bold Italic

Name Balls of Steel Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick # Favorite       Underdog           Line     Odds    Wager     Winner? Winnings    Bankroll Balance
1         San Diego   Detroit                3          1.909    11                           -11.00         189.00
2         Minnesota   San Francisco    2.5      1.909    11                           -11.00         178.00

Name WhyEaglesWhy Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick # Favorite            Underdog    Line    Odds    Wager    Winner?    Winnings     Bankroll Balance
1         Denver            Baltimore     4.5       1.909     11                           -11.00            189.00
2         Houston          Kansas City    1        1.909     11                            -11.00           178.00

Name DTZM Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick #    Favorite       Underdog    Line    Odds    Wager     Winner?    Winnings       Bankroll Balance
1            Seattle         St. Louis      4         1.909     11                             -11.00            189.00
2            Denver        Baltimore    4.5      1.909     11                             -11.00            178.00

Name King Hippo Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick #     Favorite        Underdog        Line    Odds    Wager   Winner? Winnings      Bankroll Balance
1            Green Bay     Chicago             7        1.909     22                        -22.00            178.00
2            Cincinnati     Oakland            3       1.909     11                        -11.00             167.00

Feel free to mock and provide your picks in the comments.  If you would like to join our prognosticating team, let us know and I’ll be happy to track your picks and progress.

 

ballsofsteelandfury

ballsofsteelandfury

International Member of the Geelong Cats and recovering Steelers fan. Likes Butts. And Balls. And Boobs. Pretty much anything that starts with the letter B. Preferably together.
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Senor Weaselo

The worst thing about Aqua Teen ending is it’s the end of Carl’s Stone Cold Lock of the Century… of the Week.

SonOfSpam

I really like the Jets -3, because Factory of Sadness + Geno’s Broken Jaw = Maybe like 24 points?

laserguru

I like NE and the over tonight. Packers over Bears sounds right (it better be because it’s my suicide pick ) and I feel good about the Vikings but I don’t like betting on my boys.

Make your suicide picks kids!

Lothar of the Hill People
Lothar of the Hill People

So, I know very little about sports gambling, despite being very good at picks contests. The line/points terminology (“Bears give 7 to Green Bay, take the points?” confuses me, but the basic premise is that the oddsmakers are looking to get the same amount of dollars bet on each side, right? Because the bookies make their money on the vig–on the fact that if you bet $10, you only win $9. So the guy who places the same bet on the opposite side loses $9 that goes to you, and $1 that goes to the bookie. Right?

Which explains why the lines often do make a lot of sense, and it’s rare to see one where you say, “Hoo boy, the Bears only have to stay within ONE TOUCHDOWN of Green Bay for me to win money!” Never mind that the Bears lost to Green Bay by 21 points at home in the 4th game last year. And that was before the defense was looking its worst, and before the offense imploded.

I’d take Green Bay if they were getting (did I get the terminology right?) 13 points.

I kind of like betting against the Bears, though. That way, if they lose, I make money and am not so disappointed. If they win, I lose money, but hey… they won.

And I think Matt Stafford can eat a LOT of fish tacos.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Because the bookies make their money on the vig–on the fact that if you bet $10, you only win $9. So the guy who places the same bet on the opposite side loses $9 that goes to you, and $1 that goes to the bookie. Right?

In principle, yes. However, keep in mind that the sportsbooks are greedy as shit, and are very happy to set “trap” lines to sucker people into betting lots of money on a side that – for whatever reason – the books are expecting to underperform. As with many things, if it looks too good to be true, it usually is.

Big Black Richard
Big Black Richard

“I kind of like betting against the Bears, though. That way, if they lose, I make money and am not so disappointed. If they win, I lose money, but hey… they won.”

I used the same principle for Obama’s first election. I had an overseas friend of mine bet on McCain to win. If Obama wins, I get the first Black president. If he loses, at least I get some cash out of the deal.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

A lot of people see it as sacrilege, but I like the idea of betting against your team – if they win, it’s like you BOUGHT them a victory. And if they lost, it’s like they’re saying “hey man, sorry we blew it, here’s some beer money as an apology.”

Don’t do this if your team is an underdog, though – if they lose but cover the spread you lose on both ends. It’s great if your team is the favorite, though, cause there’s the potential of winning on both ends. Sadly, as a Raiders fan, I rarely get to employ this strategy.

Don T

The Lions might be this year’s overlooked powerhouse. I’d take them anywhere if +3. Then Stafford throws a pick-6.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

A while back I did some research into a Martingale strategy for sports betting (Martingale is a basic strategy of doubling your bet each time you lose; it’s fine in theory but in practice you run into a house limit after seven or eight doubles – but that doesn’t apply to sports betting because you can always just go to another sportsbook) with the idea that as a team gets into a rut and lines keep shifting higher and higher, your odds actually get above 50%. The team that failed to cover the spread the most times in a row? The Raiders. Never trust them, when it comes to gambling. Or in any other capacity, such as child care or debt repayment.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

And I think it was like thirteen games or something. There was a baseball team (I forget which one) that hit the under like 23 times in a row.

Horatio Cornblower

Also never trust the Raiders when booking your vacation to Mexico; they never get the timing right.

Big Black Richard
Big Black Richard

I once used an online sportsbook to turn $500 into $3200 over the course of three months and scores of bets. Then I lost the entire amount over the course of nine bets using the Martingale strategy.

Enrico Pallazzo

Both secondaries tonight are dog shit and both QBs are criminals. Take the over.

Horatio Cornblower

On the other hand there is a decent chance for heavy rain tonight in Foxboro, which will not help.

Also I’m starting Brady in our FF league and the last time I started Brady in FF was, and I swear on my kids I’m not making this up, the Bernard Pollard game.

Big Black Richard
Big Black Richard

56 mL of rain?

Lothar of the Hill People
Lothar of the Hill People

Steelers lost their starting center. The Ben is gonna get hit a lot, right up the middle.

SonOfSpam

OW MY HEAD SPOT

Darkest Timeline Zack Morris

I am so excited to have my foo’baw ignorance broadcast to the world.

Sharkbait

Isn’t that why the internet was invented?

Also pornography

Darkest Timeline Zack Morris

Also, there’s this.

http://i.imgur.com/gYy28NB.png

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Agholory Boys is a terrific team name.