DFO, Money comes in

As I had mentioned earlier, it is high time that we all received some highly dubious but yet highly profitable (MAYBE!) gambling advice from an invisible internet friend or two.  As someone who has a lifetime gambling record of having won more than lost, I feel I am qualified to lead this effort and I look forward to being publicly embarrassed in the weeks to come.

As I mentioned the first time, one of the things I’ve always thought was a mistake in these type of columns/posts was the tendency for the writer to pick every game.  That’s stupid. No gambler does that.

Instead,  we will hand-select games each week and keep track of the bankroll so you know exactly how shitty our picks are!  We’ll start out with a bankroll of $200 (reasonable for a normal person that doesn’t have a Saturday morning/Sunday morning radio show) and go from there.  Joining me on this adventure will be WhyEaglesWhy, who also has some positive experience with placing wagers and who lives in a country that not only allows legal internet gambling, but whose football league actually has a gambling partner!  Also joining me will be King Hippo and our fearless leader, DTZM!

We will use the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest odds as posted on the Westgate website as the basis for our weekly picks.  Those lines are posted each Wednesday at 5 PM Pacific and do not change.  This will ensure that we all pick from the same line.  This post will go up each Thursday promptly at noon Pacific time.

I will track our process throughout the season and I vow to you all that if I lose the $200 BEFORE the end of the regular season, I will do something extremely embarrassing of the Commentists’ choice.

Given that, here are our picks:

Balls of Steel

I’m not a big fan of picking games in Week One since we really do not know how good teams are, but a couple of games stick out for me:

San Diego -3 over Detroit – It’s a long road trip and Matthew Stafford will be too full of delicious fish tacos to put up much of a fight. Stake:  $11 to win $10

Minnesota -2.5 over San Francisco – It’s also a long road trip for the Vikings, but the 49ers are a dumpster fire.  Two and a half points is nothing. Stake: $11 to win $10

WhyEaglesWhy

I’m pleased to join DTZM, King Hippo, and Balls Of Steel in a weekly reveal of my baser instincts. I like gambling on football. This will be my fourth season of betting the NFL, and I’m happy to say I’ve been consistently (if barely) over .500 (the announcement of which surely jinxes this season’s efforts). I’m glad our fake season bankroll is $200, because sadly that closely resembles my real-life season bankroll. Remember kids, this is for entertainment purposes only.

Ravens +4.5 over BRONCOS – I’m very high on the Ravens this year, and very wary of the Broncos (sorry, King Hippo). I think there’s an opportunity for some value here in Week 1 before these teams show who they really are. Stake: $11 to win $10.

Chiefs +1 over TEXANS – The Chiefs may have Alex Smith at QB, but the Texans don’t even have a QB. I believe they’re running the wishbone, which is difficult when your top running back is injured and your backup running back is terrible. Long story short, the Texans are undermanned on offense and the Chiefs D is ferocious. Not to mention that the Texans have karma coming their way for cutting Charles James III. Stake: $11 to win $10.

DTZM

Get ready to laugh, you guys.  It’s time for a dumb guy to pick football games.  Listen, in my timeline, football (and every other sport) was outlawed by Lord Screech, so I’m glad to be here, where I can still watch mutated monster freaks bash each others’ skulls in for my entertainment.  A couple of games stood out to me:

Seattle -4 over St. Louis – Holy hell, have you seen the Rams this preseason?  And Gurley and Tre Mason won’t play?  I wouldn’t bet the over of 43, but if the Rams score 10 points, I’ll be shocked.  SHOCKED I SAY.

Baltimore +4.5 over Denver – With Peyton Manning continuing to deteriorate, they brought in Gary Kubiak to turn the ship around.  Gary Kubiak is a moron.  I’m not surprised that the Bowlens missed that though, since nobody cares about the Texans and they were busy getting arrested for shit all offseason.  Denver may be playing at home, but this is the kind of game Baltimore thrives on, the revenge/disrespect game.

Both of these will, of course, be wrong.

King Hippo

Let me state at the outset that betting on the NFL is a mug’s game.  There’s NO FUCKING WAY to get an edge.  Information overload, everybody knows all in all regions of the country.  People are less prone to bet on brand recognition and dumb loyalty than they are at the university level.  Every time I look at the NFL lines, I go “Gee, that seems about right.”  Worry not, I will still talk amply out my arse and give you the HAWT TAEKS you have come to love and expect from teh interwebs.

BEARS +7 over Packers – Jeebus, is Green Bay the Bill Walsh-era 49ers?  Are the Bears the non-peak Brunell Jaguars?  I’ve watched lots of Panthers and Broncos games.  John Fox is not a perfect NFL coach.  But he’s not Rich Fucking Kotite, either.  He’ll definitely put you on the express train to respectable.  This line, in a home opener in a rivalry game?  Slap in the fucking face, I’ll break ranks and bet $22 to win $20, I am so outraged (ie, bet your kids’ college fund on the Packers)

RAIDERS +3 over Bengals – I have predicted the Raiders to be the AFC’s 2nd wild card, and the Bengals to finish 8-8 and miss the post-season.  Thus it stands to reason that this game would make all the difference, no? Plus, the line says the striped pylons are close to a full touchdown better than Oakland IN WICHITA!!! and I just ain’t buying that particular brand of bullshit. It’s a brave new world out there, crackheads and methheads, and other assorted denizens of Alameda County!  Bet $11 to win $10.

Tracking Tables

Picks are in Bold Italic

Name Balls of Steel Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick # Favorite       Underdog           Line     Odds    Wager     Winner? Winnings    Bankroll Balance
1         San Diego   Detroit                3          1.909    11                           -11.00         189.00
2         Minnesota   San Francisco    2.5      1.909    11                           -11.00         178.00

Name WhyEaglesWhy Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick # Favorite            Underdog    Line    Odds    Wager    Winner?    Winnings     Bankroll Balance
1         Denver            Baltimore     4.5       1.909     11                           -11.00            189.00
2         Houston          Kansas City    1        1.909     11                            -11.00           178.00

Name DTZM Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick #    Favorite       Underdog    Line    Odds    Wager     Winner?    Winnings       Bankroll Balance
1            Seattle         St. Louis      4         1.909     11                             -11.00            189.00
2            Denver        Baltimore    4.5      1.909     11                             -11.00            178.00

Name King Hippo Initial Bankroll: 200
Pick #     Favorite        Underdog        Line    Odds    Wager   Winner? Winnings      Bankroll Balance
1            Green Bay     Chicago             7        1.909     22                        -22.00            178.00
2            Cincinnati     Oakland            3       1.909     11                        -11.00             167.00

Feel free to mock and provide your picks in the comments.  If you would like to join our prognosticating team, let us know and I’ll be happy to track your picks and progress.