When Request Line was published last week, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was in Texas, enjoying a “hunting trip” that probably consisted of little more than skeet shooting with live birds. And now he’s dead. It was entirely a coincidence that the wife and I popped open a bottle of champagne on Friday night (I’ve got a bottle with Dick Cheney’s name on it, but he’s the only person upon whom I plan to bestow that “honor”), but I can’t say I’ll mourn Scalia’s passing. So unless somebody’s got a better soundtrack in mind (perhaps a recording of sixty straight minutes of Italian-sausage fueled flatulence would do), I guess serendipity has smiled on us and we’ve got a perfectly suitable set of songs to play the man off with. I’ve completely checked out of politics for the last couple of years, and it’s been nothing but bliss, but even I don’t think I’ll be able to ignore the battle between President Obama and the sitting Congress as to whether he’ll get a nominee through before the upcoming election. As such, I thought I’d attempt to handicap the upcoming spectacle.
Next Justice to the U.S. Supreme Court:
Sri Srinivasan – 8:3
Paul Watford – 4:1
Patricia Millett: 11:2
Merrick Garland: 15:1
Loretta Lynch: 20:1
Neal Katyal: 20:1
Eric Holder: 50:1
Someone Else: 11:5
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Over/Under Date of Confirmation: January 20, 2017 (Inauguration Day)
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And now for the music. Thanks for everyone who contributed – with over a hundred songs this is our biggest edition of DFO Radio ever. Stay tuned for Friday when Don T takes the reins. Enjoy the tunes!
Some interesting (to me anyway) things on nominations:
http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42732.pdf
And this one; from the abstract, it is expected simple and straight forward, but the study is interesting in several other ways:
“Our primary finding is that the duration of the confirmation process increases as the ideological distance between the president and the Senate increases. We also find evidence that suggests that the duration increases for critical nominees and chief justices and decreases for older nominees, current and previous senators, and nominees with prior experience on state and federal district courts.”
http://www.jstor.org/stable/3186125?seq=1#fndtn-page_scan_tab_contents
http://45.media.tumblr.com/85f6ad686e44e2301a6db285ba8fd9cd/tumblr_mtvohaajxo1rpc5kho1_500.gif
I’ll take the over. Because then it would be the next person’s call, and that’ll take a month and change. I’ll take March 1, 2017.
SCOTUSblog guy now thinks it’ll be Loretta Lynch, which is awesome because of the head-exploding on the right.
I don’t care as long as the replacement’s more reasonable than Scalia, which includes everyone.
Loretta Lynch would be a smart choice in two ways:
One, she’s been confirmed by the Senate for her Cabinet post as the nation’s top lawyer, so it would be hard for anyone to argue that they have reservations about her ability to pass muster (except for the inevitable “Being a Supreme Court Justice carries a different set of qualifications than being the AG” argument, which, although valid, means little to most of the electorate). But two, there would be an opening for a new AG, which would mean ANOTHER nomination/confirmation battle–not an inconsiderable thing, given how contentious her AG confirmation process was. This could go either way–either Obama would be potentially stupid for trying to get two contentious confirmations in his last year, or the GOP would be potentially stupid for dragging their feet on two confirmations for obviously qualified nominees.
It’s a gamble for both sides. I think that Obama is out of fucks, and so has none left to give.
She is also a coal miner’s daughter. ppl forget that.
And now this:
http://gawker.com/nobody-seems-to-know-how-exactly-antonin-scalia-ended-u-1759176340
He couldn’t even do us the favor of dying like a normal person.
Please, PLEASE let it be AEA.
When I heard Scalia died, my first thought was “please let cocaine and lady-boys be involved!”
I’m pretty sure they were. The media keeps mentioning that he was “on a hunting trip” and died of “natural causes” with juuuuuust a bit too much emphasis. I assume the Conservative Cabal got the Official Story together during the hours between his death and the announcement.
Also, I assume he was found with a salami jammed in his rectum.
I’m pretty this is the plot of True Detective Season 2.
https://twitter.com/kwissoker/status/698648756376494081
I can’t wait for the conspiracy theories that Obama is going to go all William Howard Taft and will collude with Hillary to ensure he is the nominee.
That plus an election will surely make politics fun to watch over the summer.
Already looking forward to Learned Hand / jerkoffs headlines and memes.
When you read the coverage of McConnell refusing to even schedule a confirmation hearing, keep this chart in mind:
http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CbJHAACXIAAnbjS.jpg
On one of “the shows” a legal/SCOTUS expert pointed out that anyone Obama nominates will 99.9% not be voted on, let alone confirmed, and that might “damage” said nominee enough to tank her/his chances of being re-nominated in a friendlier environment.
So, that leaves the choices to be a nominee who would be that 0.1% slam-dunk because s/he appeals to both sides of the aisle, or a sacrificial lamb who is good enough, but who will either survive the “damage” of not getting confirmed, or who doesn’t care.
I’m leaning toward sacrificial lamb. Someone appealing to the moderates, but not so appealing that s/he can overcome the radicals running the roost. I’m leaning toward a woman, so the refusal to consider her nomination will rally female support to the Democratic nominee for Prez, too.
I think Garland, Watford, and Srinivasan are short-listed for the next President, if/when RBG and/or Breyer retires, to shore up that side of the bench.
Think long game, folks.
I love the fact that it’s a football/dick joke blog that has the most reasoned political analysis around.
Hey, c’mon. Now that football season is over, it’s mainly a dick joke blog. Which, of course, leads naturally to conversations about dicks, alive or–in this case–freshly dead.