If there’s one thing that English football fans know, it’s disappointment.

The 2014 World Cup was one of the worst outings ever for the national team; a single point in a scoreless draw to Costa Rica and losses to Italy and Uruguay. It was bad. Very, very bad. Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard were old. The strikers couldn’t score. There was no sense of urgency at all to the team’s play. All in all, it was the worst showing for the team since 2000, when they also didn’t make it out of group play at the Euro.

2016 is supposed to be different this year. Will it? Honestly, I don’t know. I’ve been cynical about English football for so long that even with some notable personnel changes this year (and even with a stronger striker group than in 2014) I still am not certain it’s gonna be the Three Lions’ tourney to win this year. Let’s see some notable changes from the 2014 WC squad to the 2016 Euro one.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeeping is most likely not going to be an issue for England. Joe Hart will be the starter, and he’s been an excellent keeper during his tenure at Man City. The issue with goalkeeping is only going to arise if the defence gives up the volume of chances that it did in the last tournament. While having a keeper like Hart back there never hurts, the more you give up, the more likely it’ll come back to bite you.

Defenders

There’s a notable amount of turnover here, with only Cahill and Smalling returning from the 2014 squad. Those two will most likely start in the top 11, but after that, it’s anyone’s guess. Nathaniel Clyne is a likely guess, but with Leighton Baines not returning due to injury, that opens the door for one of either Bertrand or Rose to slot in at left back. At any rate, I have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen here, and I think that statement is still reflective of their previous defensive schemes overall, unfortunately. I’m already bracing for utter calamity.

Midfielders

I don’t want to explicitly say that starting Gerrard killed England two years ago… but starting Gerrard killed England two years ago. This year, the likely addition of Alli to the starting lineup will hopefully inject some more youthful vigour. It can only go up from here! Alli doesn’t have many international caps at just the tender age of 20, but has had a good season in the Premier League for Tottenham Hotspur, scoring 10 goals and 9 assists in 33 matches – though the end of the season was marred by a 3-game suspension for punching West Brom’s Claudio Yacob in the face. So hopefully he’ll be able to keep his temper in check during this tournament, as he would be a big loss for England. Puzzling is the addition of Wilshere, who only played in three Premier League matches this year, but Hodgson seems to have faith. Raheem Sterling should also thank his lucky stars for even making this team, considering his disastrous year for City, where he hasn’t lived up at all to his £49-million signing over from Liverpool.

Forwards

If there’s one thing that is unquestionably a strength for this team, it’s their attackers. Kane and Vardy had incredible seasons this year in the Premier League (25 and 24 goals) and are two of the most dynamic players in the game right now. They’ve showed some excellent chemistry together so far in friendlies, and with the addition of Marcus Rashford, who’s had a very impressive season at the age of 18 (8 goals in 18 matches for United at all levels), there’s plenty of potential there. Daniel Sturridge is fine as a sub, and while Rooney has just turned 30 and will probably take heat regardless of his role on the team if they play poorly, at least his experience on the international circuit – whatever you make of that – has to count for something.

Matchups

England vs. Russia – June 11th

Russia are perpetual underachievers on the international circuit – a semifinal finish in the 2008 Euro marks their best result and the only time they have advanced out of the group stage. In qualifying, the team finished second in their group, behind Austria and above Sweden, to qualify for this year’s tournament. However, they did appear quite shaky at times, losing twice to the Austrians and drawing 1-1 with both Sweden and Moldova as well.

England vs. Wales – June 16th

This is the first time these two teams have faced each other in the Euro final tournament. It’s going to be a gongshow. I hear the stadium in Lens is actually not allowing alcohol sales for this match, which, shitty as it sounds for fans, is probably the right call, ultimately. Wales’ best hopes of a victory resides, as usual, on the boot of Gareth Bale, Ronaldo’s Real Madrid counterpart. Apart from Bale, Wales has a fairly average squad, and if England can continue to score like they did in their qualifiers, they should be able to counter the Welsh attacks in their own end.

Slovakia vs. England – June 20th

Expectations are low for Slovakia. It’s the first time they’ve qualified as an independent country to the Euro final tourney; the team finished second in qualifying in group C, behind Spain, with 7 wins in 10 matches. However, this was a weak group overall, with Macedonia and Luxembourg managing just 1 win and 1 draw each, and fourth-place Belarus with 3 wins and 2 draws in 10 matches. Slovakia struggled to outscore even the lower-level matchups, failing to score against 3rd-place Ukraine, and losing 1-0 on aggregate to Belarus (plus a 2-1 defeat to champion Spain). At any rate, Slovakia will play hard, but advancing out of the group stage is likely not in the cards for them.

Overall Impressions

This team can score – there’s no doubt about that. 31 goals in 10 qualifying matches is the proof in the pudding. But the biggest question will be whether the defending can sort itself out. Cahill and Smalling have had some nagging injuries, and while they will be good to go, cramps and hip flexors still have the potential to detract from form.

Opponent-wise, England did reasonably well in their group draw. Wales and Slovakia are playing in the final tournament for the first time ever, and Russia, despite a semifinal finish in the 2008 Euro, tend to underachieve much in the same way as English squads we’ve seen previously. While the Three Lions will mostly likely win the group, their defence is just too suspect to consider them a real contender.

When they’re out in the quarters yet again, I expect a snarky Sun or Telegraph headline to go viral. Possibly something involving French hookers, personality clashes, goats, or something of all three mixed together. Please don’t disappoint us, English media. It’s all we have left to celebrate when this team has just fucked fans over for fifty years.

Enjoy the tournament, folks. Hope your team wins, because this one sure as hell won’t.