For Sale: Baby QBs. Never Won: Tuesday Open Thread

Well that was quite a week, wasn’t it?

Two teams formally gave up on their young franchise centerpieces. First, the Steelers sent Kenny Pickett and a fourth round pick to the Iggles for essentially a third. Not great return, but there is something to be said for cutting your loses.

Realizing that the were left with a QB room consisting of Russell Wilson, His Degrading Skills and His Ego, the Steelers took advantage of the Bears being the Bears and acquired Justin Fields for a sixth rounder that could become a fourth if he plays a majority of the offensive snaps.

In review:

-The Eagles made out fine here. Pickett was the “class” of the 2022 Quarterbacks, but the fact that he slid to 20 in a league with an insatiable lust for quarterbacks on a rookie deal was telling. Brock Purdy was the only one of the nine quarterbacks drafted that year who has any business starting in this league, and Pickett looks like the only other one fit to hold a clipboard. Trading a three for a four isn’t quite a “bag of balls” but it gives them a backup they can trot out with a straight face on the cheap.

-Pickett…well, he was fucked no matter what. He allegedly “didn’t deal well” with the Russell Wilson signing and wanted out. I get why he couldn’t stay in that locker room, but the situation in Philly (backing up a so-far-durable star of the same age) is not ideal. I’d have thought someone with a fragile old starter (Rams?) would have taken a swing for that price. Instead, he gets to be The Most Popular Man in Philly for two years while he runs out his rookie deal.

-The Steelers bought themselves time and potential. Russ is only on his ultracheap deal for one year. If he plays even decently, he’s going to expect a lot of years and a lot of dollars. Since Pittsburgh just played the Declining Expensive QB Game with Roethlisberger, I see them letting him walk unless they end up in the Super Bowl. Fields has one year left also, but Pittsburgh can extend him using the Fifth Year Option ($25 million). They have to decide before training camp, and the rumblings are that they are unlikely to do so. They will offer him a longer term, lower cost deal, and he would be well advised to take it.

So Pittsburgh likely bought two or three years of extremely low cost stability at quarterback, in exchange for (at most) a fourth rounder. Probably great, unless Fields continues to be mediocre-with-flashes-of-talent. At that point, Pittsburgh is in the same situation Chicago faced: give up on him and take a chance on a rookie, or keep him and hope he develops. Not enviable

-Fields probably made out well here, even if it’s just for what he avoided. He’s not stuck as a one-year-or-less bridge quarterback for one of the teams drafting a passer in the first two rounds. He’s not stuck as a stopgap for a real starter recovering from injury (Jets, Chargers, Atlanta, Clots). He has a clear path to regain a starting job in 2025. He’s just not going to make the money he probably expected as a highly drafted QB, at least until two contracts from now.

-The Bears, per standard, shat the bed on this one. Sam Darnold netted the Jets a second rounder (although I count that as the equivalent of an open-market third, since you can’t take advantage of Scott Fitterer in Carolina anymore). Trey Lance brought the Niners a fourth rounder, despite showing no ability to play quarterback in the NFL. Unless Wilson gets crippled in Week 4, the Bears will have let go of a cheap, serviceable NFL starter for a sixth round pick. Just tremendous work.

The Bears’ sin here was playing shitty poker after last year. However much noise they made about being undecided about whether to trade down, everyone sane knew they couldn’t afford to pass up a higher-upside QB two years in a row. Even the “Just Run The Ball and Play D” callers to The Score would riot. Could they have kept Fields for a year to ease in Caleb Williams (or maybe Maye- I have Suspicions)? Yes, but then they get nothing for him when he walks next year, like San Diego when Brees hit the streets after Rivers’ rookie season. So they got Optimistic: they were transparent that it was Fields or the Rookie, and everyone knew it was going to be the Rookie. So Fields became an asset that the Bears had to sell at whatever price.

In hindsight, maybe Atlanta had tampered the shit out of Cousins and knew they weren’t really in the market (although at this price, go for both). I’m assuming Minnesota was off limits due to rivalry.

But I refuse to believe the Bears didn’t get some offer before free agency better than a likely sixth.* The Raiders had jack and shit before winning the heart of Minshew the Wanderer, and unless they have Big Plans for Nix/Penix at 13, I would argue that they are still likely Boned. Similarly, Seattle or the Rams looked like good landing spots to sit behind Geno or Fat Elvis for a year then take the reins.

*Denver looked really good for Fields, but probably couldn’t make a better offer, because you need draft picks for that.

From the outside, it looks like the Bears thought they could get a Darnold-level haul and stuck their thumbs up their asses waiting for people to beat down their door. The Bears had money to burn this offseason, and I like most of their other moves. And maybe their rookie becomes CJ Stroud instead of Bryce Young, stepping up right away. But they played this hand badly.

OTHER NFL NEWS:

-Aaron Donald calls it quits after 10 years of utter domination. I read that he had a “pass rush win rate” of 18% against double teams, versus a league average of about 17% one-on-one. Suspicious as I am of “advanced stats” as a form of Dark Magic, I absolutely believe this one. I’m glad he’s going out relatively young and at the top of his game.

-On the flip side, Leighton Vander Esch has called it quits after six injury-riddled seasons. He was recently released by the Cowboys, and no one paying attention wanted to see him continue.

It’s kind of a shame, because he seemed a decent fellow and crippled himself for a (comparatively) paltry $18 million in career earnings. On the other hand, he was propping up the evil regime of the Jones Empire. So I guess the real tragedy is that he didn’t take more of their money.

-Minnesota is now officially Lurking in the Weeds to move up for a QB in the first round. The Vikings essentially traded Houston next year’s second round pick to move up 19 spots (42 to 23) this year. The options seem to be either they intend to take a developmental QB and want the 5th year option being a first-rounder affords (the Lamar Jackson Plan) or they plan to package both first rounders and trade up for a QB.

The consensus seems to be the latter, with an assumption that the Chargers are the likely target. In the unique math of the NFL Draft, 11 and 23 add up to 5- likely putting Minnesota in position to select their choice of second-tier quarterbacks (JJ McCarthy, Nix or Penix).

Now, let’s not knock second-tier quarterbacks. Recall Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were generally considered second tier after Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold.

For the Chargers, this makes all the sense in the world. They just had to slash most of their offensive firepower for cap reasons, so reloading with high-talent rookies is a must. Notably, the receiver class is deep, but without a lot of consensus in rankings between the second and sixth best guy. Unless the guy with Arizona’s draft card reading “Marvin Harrison Jr.” is abducted on his way to the podium, no one they can draft at 5 will likely give them more value than the combined worth of two guys they can get at 11 and 23.

For the Vikes, the echo chamber seems to have zeroed in on McCarthy as the choice here: he’s comparatively NFL ready (the other choice is to trot out Sam Darnold as your starter, which /shudder) and he’s Gritty White Guy National Championship Winner, which will play well with the fanbase.

-Jerry Jeudy to the Browns for a fifth and sixth, and the Browns then give him a three year extension (so four total counting this year) with $40 million guaranteed.

Jeudy has not been the game-breaking force he was touted as coming out of Alabama. He’s never had a 1000 yard season. His best season was the Lost Season under Nathaniel Hackett, with 972 yards and six TDs. Six other wide receivers were selected in the first 33 picks in 2020- Henry Ruggs, Jalen Reagor, Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk. Jefferson, Higgins, Lamb and Aiyuk- all selected after Jeudy- have had notably better careers. Of the other two, one is serving hard time in a bleak wasteland. The other is Henry Ruggs.

This smacks of Jimmy Haslam talking to his homeless-guy-cum-general-manager, trying to recover his investment value in Deshaun Watson. As a practical matter, the Browns are stuck with Watson for at least two years, and even then they would be eating Russell Wilson levels of dead money ($73 million). He wasn’t performing particularly well even when he wasn’t suspended or injured. He’s now got Amari Cooper, Jeudy, David Njoku and Nick Chubb for weapons. I look forward to him falling completely flat, and the Watson trade regaining ground in the Russell Wilson/Herschel Walker/Ryan Leaf “Worst Trade Ever” Contest.

-Former Patriot offensive tackle Trent Brown signed a one year deal with Cincinnati.  Brown explained his decision-making process in leaving New England:

He told reporters he saw Bengals center Ted Karras, his former teammate with the New England Patriots, sitting in the hot tub in the Bengals facility, which spoke volumes about Cincinnati’s culture.

“That was a huge thing right there,” Brown said. “Just being where we came from, where people would get out of there for a release any chance we had.”

“Same,” remarked Patriots owner Robert Kraft when reached for comment.

WHAT’S ON TONIGHT:

Horseshit JV Bounceball!

16 Wagner vs 16 Howard 6:40 PM Eastern
truTV

10 Colorado State vs. 10 Virginia 9:10 PM Eastern
truTV

Despite my well-known disdain for “money” college sports, I am looking forward to the Howard-Wagner game. Not because this is Gritty Underdogs Facing Off, but because I can sit there and imagine Rick Pitino sitting at home, crying that his bullshit wasn’t strong enough to smarm his way into the tournament. Then he (and Pitt, and Oklahoma) decided he was too good to play in the NIT. Newsflash: Rick Pitino banged a skank for 15 seconds in an Italian restaurant, gave her $3000 for an abortion, and has been a sleazy cheater from literally the moment he started coaching at Hawaii in the 70s. HE IS NOT TOO GOOD FOR ANYTHING. Fuck that guy.

Anyway, I don’t know anything about any of these teams. Fort Collins produces better beer than Charlottesville, so I guess I’m rooting for CSU.

As to the other game, I’m going off associated names:

Wagner: alleged manslaughterist Robert, aggressively racist composer Richard, locker room cancer Billy, and famed baseball card Honus.

Howard: Stooges Moe, Curly and Shemp, domestic abuser and incredible weirdo Terrence, and smoking hot redhead Bryce Dallas.

Advantage: Howard.