Beggars at the Feast

Last week, the hapless Cleveland Browns lost yet again in what (on paper and prior to kickoff) seemed like their best chance to obtain a victory this season.  When Tennessee scored a touchdown to go up 28-13 with less than seven minutes remaining in the game, it seemed like another straightforward (if ignominious) loss would go into the books.  But although you can find “cede” and “leave”, you’ll never find “quit” in “Cleveland” so the Browns went ahead and Cool Hand Luked their way into a few more shots to their collective jaw by scoring a touchdown with 2:07 remaining, cutting the score to 28-19.  When faced with this situation (a deficit of 9 points with a very good chance at making the one-point conversion and a fifty-fifty chance of making the two), many people’s first instinct would be to take the one point, with the hope of recovering an onsides kick, scoring another touchdown, and THEN going for two.

This is not the correct strategy.

Under the assumption that your chances of making the two point conversion are the same regardless of WHEN you attempt it, it actually makes more sense to try it first – because if you fail, you now know you need two scores and can plan accordingly.  Your chances of succeeding are still very slim (now you’ve got to recover TWO onsides kicks), but they are better than none – which is what your chances would be if your failed two point conversion happens on the final play of the game.

Most folks can see the logic in this argument.  But not this guy.  Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you: The Most Intransigent Football Fan in America.