Your “TESTING, TESTING” Sunday Afternoon NFL Football Open Thread

Is this the start of the inevitable (maybe) unraveling of The Shield’s best-laid plans? Hopefully for us watchers of games that’s not the case but I do stand by my prediction that there will be a break in play for a week or two if things get out of hand. I can’t get my head around how teams in Florida and Texas will be able to get through this unscathed, given their respective governor’s stance on The Covid. But hey, we’ve had four years practice of watching shit circumstances slowly unfold. Gird them loins, folks!

TO THE GAMES!

Texans/Titans:

Look for Henry to go buck wild in this spot-his only 200 yarder came against these guys last year and 4 out of 5 backfields have run for at least 140 vs Houston.

Bengals/Colts:

Your sneaky play here is Trey Burton-since wk. 4 he has a 19% target share and has led all Colts te’s with 35 routes run. The Cincy D has allowed the 3rd most targets to the position overall and the 2nd most red zone throws.

Falcons/Vikes:

In news that won’t shock you, opposing qb’s have an average rating of 125.1 vs Atlanta. The ground bound Vikes may want to toss a ball or three Thielen and Jefferson’s way. Or maybe new coach Morris has solved all of the Falcons’ woes this past week? [snorts]

Broncos/Pats:

Drew Lock was able to practice this week so Bye, Bye Bortles! As per usual the Pats are zipped lipped about Cam but I’m betting he plays. If Darnold can run for 84 yards against Denver, imagine where Newton’s wheels will take him.

Team/Giants:

Twere nice to see Alex Smith out there last week but the stat sheet wasn’t nearly as nice to him as the national media was. As a team, Team’s qb’s averaged 1.9 yards per pass play. If McLaurin isn’t doing anything Washington’s air O is doing nothing and those odds are good because cb Bradberry hasn’t allowed a single #1 wr more than 10 fantasy points this year.

Ravens/Eagles:

Wentz will get his ass blitzed for the 2nd week in a row but the good news is that he handled it well last week-he was 11-16 for 104, a TD and an intercept.

Browns/Steelers:

[point chasers insert Claypool into lineup] It’s worth a shot, right? Expect Pitt to shut down Cleveland’s healthy running game and force them to the air which isn’t a bad thing because the Steelers have given up big plays and OBJ and Landry are capable of just that.

Bears/Panthers:

Another sneaky fantasy play is Darnell Mooney-he’s #2 in target share now and since Foles took over the Bears have been passing at a 75% clip. (game scripts have influenced this) Mooney has aDOT of 15 and the Panthers give up the 7th most big plays.

Lions/Jags:

Detroit plays a vanilla man D that doesn’t do much to disguise coverages but they should take a run at Minshew. His clean pocket passer rating of 74.5 drops precipitously to 42.5 when he’s pressured.

Go man, go!

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Don T

Why fight it.EVERYONE loves El Tractorcito.

Brick Meathook

The Oprys win!

TheRevanchist

Gotta love a good OT game.

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Oh, Romeo.

Wakezilla

Meanwhile, over in Lesser Footy fans acting reasonably:

“Morning reds, had quite a few messages of support over the silent protest for the derby. Let me remind people this would be socially distanced outside Anfield. Also a petition to get Pickford banned for the length of time VVD is injured will be set up to discuss in Parliament.”

blaxabbath

Burrows with the inevitable rookie pick there.

Gratliff

EAGLES LEGEND TRAVIS FULGHAM DOWN

blaxabbath

The missed field goal looks as large as a Colts fan now.

Recovery Whiskey

Bears fail to put it away on offense so they can ice it on defense. Pick and game

Last edited 4 years ago by Recovery Whiskey
BrettFavresColonoscopy

Ha nice edit

Recovery Whiskey

They made me do it

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Matt Nagy is like 20% as smart as he thinks he is

Recovery Whiskey

Foles makes him smarter

blaxabbath

Guys who wear visors are like that.

Redshirt

Nice for Cincy to call two running plays. Burrow was about to get into a rhythm.

blaxabbath

Keeping the defense guessing!

blaxabbath

Wait — is PHI down an entire 11 man squad?

Gratliff

40 yard run by Wentz because he’s literally the last man standing

Recovery Whiskey

Bridgewater to Moore < Wilson to Metcalf

blaxabbath

Wish Teddy hadn’t gotten hurt. Think he’d have been a good QB in that class.

blaxabbath

Burrows gonna be airing it out!

blaxabbath

The cartoon picture of Rivers looks like the negotiator guy is Waco.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Ok, this 4th down is the whole game

Wakezilla

The Bengals have a kicker named Bollucks and the Fat Humps have a kicker that wears Tom Henke glasses? The Clots/Bungals game is officially the Mister Congeniality Bowl!

Gratliff

Eagles just lost another right tackle

Gratliff

It’s Jack Driscoll, who I’m pretty sure is a tag champion in MLW

Wakezilla

How is MLW? I’ve been meaning to watch the show

Gratliff

I only casually follow it because I can DVR it, but it’s like a 4+ week tape delay usually. For a while, it was basically AEW’s tag division on every episode, then during the pandemic, it was a greatest matches thing for each of its biggest names, but also had a weekly cooking show featuring LA Park which was fun
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Sharkbait

That 2 point attempt for WFT went WTF real quick

Brick Meathook

Is Rich Gannon an elite announcer? Or is he a discount Tony Romo?

blaxabbath

I like Rich.

Brick Meathook

Are you saying that Tony Romo is a discount Rich Gannon?

Gratliff

Only when he’s playing football

blaxabbath

I think Romo will prove to be better than Rich but Rich has the credentials right now. If you put Rich in a game over Tony, I wouldn’t call it the wrong move.

Brick Meathook

If you absolutely had to, which one would you sleep with in a cheap motel?

blaxabbath

Romo

The Maestro

Pats don’t surrender a touchdown all game and still lose by 6 at home. Great fucking job, idiots.

BrettFavresColonoscopy

Awful shame….

blaxabbath

Well, I mean this Broncos squad is…tee hee hee….sneaky good. pffffft…

blaxabbath

Elaborate please….

Sharkbait

Yeah….They do not look good.

Gratliff

YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME – Washington, in a loss

Gratliff

<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-partner=”tweetdeck”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>With Ertz and Sanders out, the Eagles are now without their RB1, LT, LT2, LG, RG, RG3, RT, their top 3 WRs, and their top 3 TEs.</p>&mdash; Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) <a href=”https://twitter.com/JimmyKempski/status/1317916933111664640?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>October 18, 2020</a></blockquote>
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

blaxabbath

Is the science gonna tell us we need a five game preseason and we’re all just gonna collectively ignore that as we lock it in at one preseason game?

Gratliff

Kinda think the Eagles training staff is a clown car, really

blaxabbath

I’m amazed that you can blanket train that much injury success — and that it isn’t just a known kind of program of certain simple exercises.

blaxabbath

I’ll say it: this is bad football this year and I really enjoy watching it. I’m ready for a break from watching elite guy this take on dominant competition that and, instead, give me the 2020 Cincinnati Bengals.

Recovery Whiskey

Foles forgot any receiver not named Robinson

Viva La Tabula Raza

Fucking stupid Crennel going for two.

hippofant

That’s the right call, isn’t it? 95% chance of hitting the PAT, which would force TEN to take a 50% chance for the two. That’s only a 47.5% chance of winning, assuming TEN scores a touchdown. 50% chance of your own 2PAT, that’s just a straight 50% chance to win.

Viva La Tabula Raza

Perhaps. I am not a math major. Now we got OT.

hippofant

Let me check my math on this one. We’re assuming the Titans score a TD, otherwise this whole conversation is moot, and we’re assuming there’s no time left when they do so, otherwise this shit gets complicated.

If the Texans go for a PAT, there’s a 95% chance they’re up by 8, 5% chance they’re up by 7.

If the Texans go for a 2PAT, there’s 50% chance they’re up by 9, a 50% chance they’re up by 7.

If the Texans are up by 9, there’s a 100% chance they win.

If they’re up by 8, the Titans have to go for 2 at a 50% success rate, so 50% Texans win and a 50% chance we go into overtime (which, we’ll assume is a 50% win probability for both teams). Combined, that’s a 75% chance to win for the Texans if they go up by 8.

If they’re up by 7… well now we have to consider what the Titans will do. If the Titans go for 1, the Titans will have a 95% chance of tying the game, 5% chance of losing the game, and we’ll assume again that OT is 50/50, so the PAT is a 47.5% chance of winning for the Titans. If the Titans go for 2, that’s a 50% chance of winning the game and a 50% chance of losing the game, but that’s better than 47.5% so the Titans will presumably go for 2.

In that case, from the Texans’ perspective, being up by 7 is a 50% chance of winning.

So altogether, if they Texans go for the PAT, their win percentage is 0.95 * 0.75 + 0.05 + 0.50 = 73.75% chance of winning. If they go for the 2PAT, their win percentage is 0.50 * 1.00 + 0.50 * 0.50 = 75% chance of winning.

So going for 2 is the correct choice assuming standard conversion percentages.

Last edited 4 years ago by hippofant
Gratliff

Miles Sanders is also hurt

Gratliff

As long as they’re on Philly’s offense

blaxabbath

Right as we started dating, my wife went to a wedding of a girl who was marrying an NFL player. He went on to have a solid career — probably earned over $100 mill and got at least one ring — and my wife mentioned the bride the other day and I was like, “oh I bet her husband is retired; did they decide where they want to live?” My wife goes on to say how he’s really sore all the time and that’s been bothering him for years and all that. And I’m standing there all twisted over holding the kid and suffering from MY OFFICE INDUCED DEPRESSION and I’m like — I’m the same age as him and I’m sore all the time too. He has trouble sleeping? I have trouble sleeping. It can be hard to sleep once you’ve been not sleeping. Your knees go out in your late 30’s cuz they get all banged out. Know how I know? Mine are fucked because I never was hurt by anything til a guy took me out at 26. After that, never the same and subsequent hits each made them worse: it’s what’s happens. You don’t know what to do with your career in your late 30’s?? Wow! So original!

I get that he’s probably all beat to shit though. But no one likes to hear about your aches when they’ve got their own.

Wakezilla

I know how you feel. 2 weeks ago, I was in the hallway of my apartment building and I got temporarily lost/had no clue where I was.

At least those pro athletes that made millions over their career have money to fall back on to retired whereas I’m going to need to work another 40 some odd years

blaxabbath

I forget stuff a lot too sometimes but I think I may be addicted to marijuana.

Recovery Whiskey

You still won’t die of CTE so you have that going for you, which is nice

Wakezilla

“Ah Bollocks!”

Is exactly what Bengals fans are saying right now after that missed field goal.

Of course, anyone watching football for the last 25 years saw the miss coming

Recovery Whiskey

You really think a bunch of southern Ohioans are saying “bollocks?”

Last edited 4 years ago by Recovery Whiskey
Gratliff

Zack Ertz pulls up with an ankle injury because why not

Recovery Whiskey

33-7 would be bigger than 28-3.

Sharkbait

Would be extra hilarous

Wakezilla

Does Carson Wentz have a trench coat? Because if he does, I wouldn’t show up to practice on Tuesday. . .

Gratliff

It’s starting at right tackle next week

Wakezilla

Flea Flickr executed by the Bungals!

Gratliff

Eagles getting into “It wasn’t actually that close” territory now

Gratliff

And with a 55 yard Tucker kick, the Eagles are now in perfect position for a 3 point loss

blaxabbath

I L’dOL

Mr. Ayo

No longer irrelevant!

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Browns so far behind that the network cuts away. Feels like the timeline is restoring itself.

clint greasewood

Lock and Exploded

Wakezilla

Rivers just checked into the Bates Motel

Rikki-Tikki-Deadly

Not the Master Bates hotel, though, that’s sinful.

blaxabbath

::Logs Off::

-Tim Tebow

Gatoraids

Under name Ron Flotador

Recovery Whiskey

Filipe’ Rios

Last edited 4 years ago by Recovery Whiskey
blaxabbath

What a unfortunate play.

I’m objectively rooting against Burrows for a private and VERY loose affiliation (more of a, “I just don’t want this guy to enjoy being right,” situation with the guy) with Burrows.

Wakezilla

That’s the best type of being right. Good luck

Gratliff

Pretty sure the best type of being right is what we’re watching with Kirk Cousins

Recovery Whiskey

Mitch who? — Bears fans

blaxabbath

How long til Belichik hangs it up?

Recovery Whiskey

41 wins behind. Checks out

Last edited 4 years ago by Recovery Whiskey
blaxabbath

That would be an amazing feat though.

Gatoraids

Grumble grumble when I fuck Tom Brady s mom

Viva La Tabula Raza

*looks at DEN-NE play-by-play summary*
Like Billy Pilgrim, I have apparently become unstuck in time and am now residing sometime in the early 1990’s.
I think the return to reality for Pats fans after almost two decades is going to be just another component of 2020 sucking so hard.
But for everyone else it will probably be a bright spot in an otherwise shit year.

blaxabbath

It’d be nice to see the Hate Parade with packed stadiums full of booing fans and cutting signs.

But this is good enough for 2020, in part, because I always thought Cam could be a great player with the right team — but even Belichik can’t figure out that Cam’s Seventh Seal.

And I’ll contend Cam was *ON* that SB run — but he can lose a step and grow so much elsewhere still that I think he could dominate. But I guess you perform a job so long one way, maybe it’s just too much to ask you to give up the way you know and think you can be successful with for a system you just never even considered when you were more of a threat.

Gratliff

Jason Croom, who absolutely is not a real person, has a TD for the Eagles

blaxabbath

If I were Phillip Rivers, I’d say I’m going out for a pack of smokes and just never return.

Mother Puncher

The old Andy Luck

TheRevanchist

He’s not done breeding yet.

Horatio Cornblower

Another tie is in play in the NFC Are They Even Playing Football division.

Gratliff

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Mother Puncher

Bengals Bengaled

Viva La Tabula Raza

HOU-TEN tilt approaching bananacakes-ness.

rockingdog

BOW WOW! for BANANACAKES!!!!!!

Last edited 4 years ago by rockingdog
Recovery Whiskey

Bears get jobbed on PI. And we’re close again

WCS

Gal Gadot is going to play Cleopatra in a movie.

Narrator: WCS’ erection grew six inches that day (five inches bigger than normal)

Wakezilla

More people talking about how problematic that movie is than people actually going to watch it.

I sure hope Patty Jenkins hires a better historian than the one she hired for Wonder woman 1: The First Avenger

Last edited 4 years ago by Wakezilla
Gratliff

“Watch Wonder Woman beat up evil Germans in World War I.” “You mean II?” “No.” “Hmm.”

WCS

I’ll still be jerking off to it.

Narrator: He will.