HOLLA AT YA BITCHES, IT’S REVEREND MAYHEM ON THE MIC! E’ERYBODY SAY “HOOOOOOOO!”

Tough crowd. Moving on.

Horatio Cornblower, our resident Mock Draft Maestro, has kindly allowed me to take first swing at this year’s NFL Guess Fest. We’re still more than three weeks out, but trust me- it’s not going to get any more accurate from here. Due to length and schedule, I will be breaking this up into two parts

The modern trend is for great movement on Day 1- over the past five years, we’re averaging something over five draft-day trades involving first rounders. Great for excitement, shitty for trying to project who is going where at what pick. Not to mention the ever-present spectre of Minnesota missing its turn and upending the draft order. (/waits for security to muffle yeahright’s protestations about it All Being Part of the Plan).

However, the futility of an exercise has never stopped me before. So here you have it: Reverend Mayhem’s 2024 Preliminary Mock Draft Mk. 1, Part 1 (Taylor’s Version). By and large I will confine myself to the draft order as it stands, with two notable exceptions.

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina): Caleb Williams (Quarterback, USC)

As previously discussed at exhaustive length, the Bearistocrats have pretty much painted themselves into a corner of expectations here. First, they have to take a quarterback; if the season started today, this is your starting QB:

This is Tyson Bagent, your seventeen year-old cousin who just got busted for selling meth out of his lifted rusty pickup. You don’t want this as your quarterback. And after dealing Justin Fields for a (likely) sixth rounder instead of cashing in on a big bag of picks, they pretty much have to take Caleb Williams. Not only is he the consensus #1 quarterback, but he is probably the most exciting (for better or worse). And Bears fans need excitement at this stage; the McCaskeys have been selling Cake Tomorrow at quarterback since they booted Jay Cutler seven years ago, and regardless of their noise about private funding for a new stadium, the team is about to ask the public for a very large bag of money or money equivalents. Hell, the Chiefs are having a hard time convincing their fans to continue a sales tax and they just won two Super Bowls. So yes: Chicago does the obvious thing here, because very few people are going to second-guess the obvious thing (at least in the short term).

2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye (Quarterback, U*NC)

3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels (Quarterback, LSU)

I had these switched originally, and then I remembered which team I was talking about. The Commanders are trying very hard to show that It’s Different This Time, We Swear and establish themselves as a conservative, respectable franchise under their new ownership and management. Hell, they hired Dan Fucking Quinn as their coach.

Unfortunately, one of the most salient memories we all have of The Bad Old Days is Robert Griffin III writhing in agony on the career-destroying monster formerly known as FedEx Field (note- RGIII loves Daniels and has been very vocal that he’s the best QB in the draft, which is probably the kiss of death). New GM Adam Peters recently lived through the nightmare that was Trey Lance in San Francisco and came up through very conservative organizations (Patriots, old Broncos). Washington will shy away from late-rising quarterbacks whose scramble a lot, even if it’s an unconscious bias.

“But Rev, doesn’t Maye run a lot?” you ask. Yes, but he’s 1. bigger, 2. whiter, 3. did not have several relatively pedestrian seasons to make people doubt whether he has the necessary Golden Inborn Talent or just found a system that suited him, and 4. does not have such suicidal tendencies in the open field. Channel 6, which is the second sports site you should subscribe to after Defector, put it thusly regardin Daniels:

Might be termed a “philosophical runner,” in the sense that every open-field scramble is The Trolley Problem, and Jayden Daniel’s answer is to slam his personal runaway streetcar of a body into as many innocent bystanders as possible.

Jayden Daniels would die on the sands of the CommanderBowl, just like RGIII before him. Maye is the strong-armed pocket passer that (with the right protection) might find his stride with even a middling group of receivers. Peters bets on his own ability to find rough diamonds at other positions and takes the “safe” option.

Meanwhile, the Patriots are secretly glad to have the choice break this way. Alex Van Pelt was hired as Cleveland’s Offensive Coordinator to coach Baker Mayfield and then retained for Deshaun Watson. Daniels’ game is not dissimilar (for better or worse). The real question is whether he can get used to playing with pedestrian wideouts again instead of the two first-rounders he had at LSU.

4. Arizona Cardinals- Marvin Harrison, Jr. (WR, An Ohio State University)

Lotta folks overthinking it here. Many think Minnesota makes it’s move for this spot, but I don’t see it. They have two years to figure out if Kyler Murray can actually fulfill his promise at QB; in 2026 his dead cap number drops to a manageable $20 million versus a barely-tenable $55 million cap hit to keep him. They need legitimate offensive weapons to test Murray’s quality. Right now he will be throwing to Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch and Trey McBride.

So yeah. Arizona takes the closest thing to a Sure Thing at a position of desperate need.

5. Minnesota Vikings (via Los Angeles Chargers)- JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)

Here’s where Minny makes its move. In exchange for its two first-rounders, Minnesota ensures that it gets the Best of the Rest without paying an extra toll to move up to 4. From the Chargers perspective, they need quantity over quality- two cheap starters are worth more than one boom-or-bust high pick.

I feel like this is a reach for McCarthy, who gives off vibes like Zach Wilson, Mac Jones and A.J. McCarron had an unholy love child. Yes, some of this is anti-Harbaugh bias rubbing off on him. And some is the classic trap of being a highly successful QB on a run-and-defense-first college team: how will he respond when asked to carry the whole load for a season? Finally, I am suspicious of quarterbacks who rise from their initial consensus draft position based on nothing more than teams moving from “we gotta get A Guy” to “we like This Guy” to “oh god oh god, what if This Guy isn’t there when we draft Xth?!?!?!?”. Mitch Trubisky, Trey Lance, Daniel Jones- all guys who benefited from GMs getting spooked and overdrafting.

Minnesota is neither a run nor a defense-first team. So if McCarthy wants to Show Them All, this is the place.

6. New York Giants- Malik Nabers (WR- LSU)

Look for Sad Brian Daboll Face when the Giants turn this card in. He and GM Joe Schoen desperately want a new quarterback, and were given public carte blanche to draft a new quarterback by ownership. Drafting one of the top four QBs would probably buy them at least another two years of job security, but with those four off the board they would be drafting a developmental QB for their successors.

As it stands, they need Daniel Jones to start living up to his contract, which is unlikely. So they try to Eli their way through it: give a mediocre quarterback enough high-quality weapons and maybe he can make something happen. Nabers is the consensus Best of the Rest, and his ability to create yards after the catch will be invaluable in trying to salvage all the dump-off passes Jones will throw.

7. Tennessee Titans- Joe Alt (Tackle- Notre Dame)

GM Ran Carthon isn’t drafting for this year. He knows Will Levis is almost certainly Not the Guy at quarterback. He’s building for next year when he can draft a top quarterback. That means stocking up on good line talent while expectations are low. If Levis catches fire this year- great, you look like a genius. Alt is the class of the tackles this year, and very few people are going to fault you for going O-Line here when you went hard in free agency for offensive weapons.

8. Atlanta Falcons- Dallas Turner (Defensive End, Alabama)

I could see this as a place where the Raiders’ nerve breaks and they trade up for Michael Penix, Jr. Atlanta is probably happy to oblige, because they need multiple defensive starters out of a draft with a somewhat muddled top of the defensive board. Assuming Atlanta sticks where it is, they get their pick of the defensive crop. I like Turner- he is very large and very, very fast (4.46 40 yard dash), and was part of the Alabama team that drove Nick Saban into exile.

9. Bearistocrats (again)- Jared Verse (Defensive End, Florida State)

This is more a gut feeling than anything else. A lot of folks seem to have the Bears taking a wideout here, but the Bears already have two legitimate NFL starters at wide receiver for the first time since…what, Alshon Jeffrey and Brandon Marshall? Ginny McCaskey wants to see one more deep playoff run before she goes off to the Great Key Party in the Sky, and the best way to do that within the next two years is to plug the most obvious hole (giggity) from last year: pass rush. The acquisition of Montez Sweat midyear improved matters, but there is still a crying need.

10. J-E-S-T JEST JEST JEST- Brock Bowers (Tight End- Georgia)

Let’s be frank here: Robert Saleh and GM Joe Douglas are hanging by a thread. Leaving aside alleged yelling matches, Woody Johnson is going to be looking for blood if the team underperforms again, because he is a businessman who cares more about how results make him look than anything else. So Aaron Rodgers is (once again) going to get whoever he wants here. As an aging quarterback coming off a devastating injury, he should want offensive line help. As a fucking crack-brain doofus who can’t get over all those years in Green Bay where they wouldn’t buy him new toys in the first round, he gonna want a weapon. Yes, it might be one of the receivers, but I’m feeling tight end.

11. Oakland..er..Las Vegas Raiders (Trade from Chargers from Vikings) Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Washington).

So hear me out: The Raiders need a quarterback. The Broncos need a quarterback even more, and pick one slot in front. So the Raiders bite the bullet and send #13 and a third rounder to the Chargers to jump the queue.

Is this too high for Penix? Probably. Are the Raiders still reckless in pursuit of exciting players? Probably. Does it just feel natural that the Raiders would have one of two lefty quarterbacks in the league? Yes. Does Mark Davis want to shit in the soup at Broncos’ draft headquarters by forcing them to either trade down or take Bo Nix in the top of the first round? You probably had him at “shit in the soup”.

Penix is really interesting and I enjoyed watching his highlights. I really hope he develops well, and I think a year behind Gardner Minshew will benefit him more than any of the other top QBs.

12. Denver Broncos- Quinyon Mitchell (CB- Toledo)

If it actually breaks this way (with the top 4 quarterbacks gone by the time Denver is up), expect a massive trade-down in order to try and replenish the Russell Wilson-Sean Peyton deficit of draft picks- late 20s to grab Nix, I think. If they stick…well, they need help all over. The only way out (other than lucking into a Brock Purdy) is to figure out an identity and build around it. Patrick Surtain II is one of the few bright spots- make the secondary a strength and then scheme around it.

13. Los Angeles Chargers- Rome Odunze (WR- Washington)

Things break well for the Clippers du Merde in this scenario. They get a high-level wideout, an extra first and third rounder, and Jim Harbaugh gets to look like a Clever Dynamic Leader for getting his puppet GM to swing these deals. Odunze is a quality pickup here, giving Justin Herbert a partial replacement for the decimated wide receiver room.

14. New Orleans Saints- Olumuyiwa Fashanu (Tackle, Penn State).

Here’s where I give up all pretense and start relying on The Draft Industrial Complex to fill in the gaps of my knowledge. My disdain for JV Football is well documented, and I watch very little of it. At the top of the draft and for quarterbacks, I will watch highlights and lowlights, dig into the statistics, etc. But at this point, I’m going by positional need, general consensus among draftniks at that position, and armchair psychology of team leadership.

New Orleans needs a lot. And with Penix gone, I don’t see a whole lot of potential trade partners for this pick unless someone gets Receiver Fever(tm). Everything New Orleans needs to do on offense would be improved by a functional tackle, so I’m giving them Fashanu.

15. Indianapolis Clots- Brian Thomas, Jr. (WR- LSU)

Honestly and truly, I believe this could go three different ways depending on what drugs Jim Irsay is on (or not on) on Draft Night. My head said offensive line or cornerback, but I think Irsay’s near-death experience means he wants to see Anthony Richardson Ball Out Hard, and he wants to see it Now. That means getting a Reggie Wayne to Michael Pittman Jr.’s Marvin Harrison (or perhaps a T.Y. Hilton to Pittman’s Reggie Wayne). SIDE NOTE FOR THE GAMBLING DEGENERATE: Keep an eye out for a prop bet on Indy trading up for Marvin Harrison Jr.- if Irsay is on the really good drugs, I can see him forcing Chris Ballard’s hand.

16. Seattle Seahawks- Troy Fautanu (Offensive Line- Washington)

The C-Hox run defense was fairly putrid last year, and I don’t see their free agent linebacker pickups getting the job done. But the interior of the offensive line is even worse. No disrespect to Geno Smith or Sam Howell (well, some disrespect to Howell), but in order to survive with a mediocre QB and great wideouts, said QB needs time to let routes develop. Similarly, Kenneth Walker needs holes to run through. Fautanu is a guard/tackle type who can help instantly.