2023 PREDICTION: 4-13

2023 REALITY:  9-8; not good, but good enough for the NFC South title

The 2023 season was a good one for the Bucs, mediocre record in a trash division notwithstanding. They exceeded expectations. This was down to two (and only two) factors:

1. Baker Mayfield emerged from his cocoon as a competent game-manager quarterback, and
2. They emphatically put the final bullet in the back of the ailing Eagles’ skull in the Wild Card round, 32-9.

I was certain that GM Jason Licht was going to repeat his history by canning coach Todd Bowles to keep offensive coordinator Dave Canales. You may recall that Licht summarily executed Lovie Smith in order to ensure that offensive supergenius (snicker) Dirk Koetter didn’t bolt to another team.

Well, Licht showed that he has learned a second lesson in his ten years at the helm in Tampa (the first lesson being “sign a spurned Tom Brady”). Canales went to division rival Carolina. Bowles stuck despite their defense being tissue-paper against the pass.

2024 Big Damn Changes:

Relatively few changes, as most of their efforts were directed at keeping Mayfield, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Ageless Mike Evans. And they succeeded! However, they lost Devin White and cut Shaq Barrett (who subsequently signed with the Dolphins, lost all hope and then retired).

They also did very little to help their secondary. Their sack and pressure stats were middle of the road, which suggests a coverage problem. So running it back with essentially the same secondary is certainly A Choice.

Mostly, it’s going to be an interesting year for new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. He’s got a weird resume:

-Los Angeles Rams (2018–2019)
Assistant wide receivers coach

-Los Angeles Rams (2020)
Assistant quarterbacks coach
-University of Kentucky (2021)
Offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach
-Los Angeles Rams (2022)
Offensive coordinator
-University of Kentucky (2023)
Offensive coordinator & quarterbacks coach

So his Sean McVay pedigree is obvious- even if you didn’t see his work history, you’d know from his picture:

Yep. Another white, under-40 goofy-looking fucker with a perpetual “I’ve been on PTO for two weeks and haven’t shaved” beard. Quelle surprise

Last year, the offense was very much a Josh McDaniels Patriots-style affair: lots of short passes that essentially took the place of a running game. If Coen’s time at Kentucky is any indication, the playcalling will be more balanced though still favoring the pass. That’s bad news for Baker, particularly since he doesn’t figure in the running game like Coen protege Will Levis.

That said, teams are unlikely to give up throwing against this secondary. Accordingly, the Bucs will likely find themselves in a lot of shootouts. Will this reawaken the Rex Grossman in Mayfield? Or will he become another victim of the McVay Coaching Bush?

SCHEDULE CONSIDERATION:

Shit. They start off with Jayden Daniels’ first real game. They play Denver in Week 3, in what very well may be Bo Nix’s first game. And they have six games against the Falcons, Saints and Panthers. If they go anything less than 6-2 in that stretch, Bowles should be fired. Out of the stupid pirate ship cannon at Raymond James.

Ah, who am I kidding? The cannon’s pretty sweet.

2024 PREDICTION: 9-8.

NFL NEWS:

-Man…

JJ McCarthy, this year’s recipient of the Johnny Manziel Memorial Most Punchable Draft Pick Award, may be done for the season already. McCarthy tore his meniscus in his first preseason action, and will undergo surgery to confirm the severity and repair whatever they find.

I wanted to see him suffer. I wanted his Zach Wilson/Sam Darnold/Brady Quinn trajectory played out on the field. I wanted to watch his ambition die on the carpet of the BirdMurderDome when the 2-10 Michael Penix-led Falcons take their third pick-six of the game to the house.

Godspeed, JJ McFuckFace. Your destiny awaits you.

-Fast start for Browns second-round pick Mike Hall. The rookie defensive tackle (allegedly) managed a Modified Tyreek, a KHunt and a Couchless Greg Hardy, all before the second preseason game.

-AiyukWatch 2024: HE’S GOING TO PITTSBURGH! MAYBE! THERE IS AN OFFER!

Just a stunning own-goal by the Niners if true. No word on compensation, but the Steelers don’t have anyone (other than TJ Watt or possibly the entirety of their secondary) who would help them as much this year as a happy Aiyuk.

–BWAHAHAHAHAAHA. God, I love the Jets. Never change.