Playoffs? Talk about playoffs?? We’re in even if we can’t win a game!

Look, it’s no secret that I was pretty hard on the 2015 NFL product. Officiating snafus, points of emphasis, and general game management ineptitudes aside, this season felt like one of little parity. Each conference had a laughing stock division (AFC South & NFC East) whose champion hosted a playoff game where they got manhandled by their wildcard opponent — Packers putting up 35 on the Redskins (no ofence) and the Chiefs blanking the Texans — before the playoffs turned straight chalk for the final three post-season weeks. Looking back on the overall season, it was pretty easy to separate the wheat from the chaff.

Of course we all watched with interest because, as we had discussed at the ten week mark, no teams had actually yet been eliminated from the playoffs. But looking back, the NFL post-season provided very little on-field intrigue. Naturally, when Roger Goodell announced this week at a Jaguars Season Ticket Holder Town Hall Meeting that the NFL playoffs are “likely” to expand “at some point”, fan reaction has not been overwhelmingly positive.

I get it, the NFL is exciting because of the short season. To add games or add playoff teams, in theory, will water down the product. To see the extreme examples of this, just look at the 162 game MLB regular season and the straight-chalk NBA playoff brackets. While the 18-game expansion seems currently shelved (wisely so, even with a 14-1 record entering the final week of the season, the Carolina Panthers still had to suit up and ball to lock the NFC #1 overall seed), I think the conversation about playoff expansion deserves a bit more than the knee jerk Jimmy & The Animal drive-time outrage. Don’t tell me you don’t want to see 8-8 or 7-9 teams getting in because that’s already happening. And don’t tell me there is really some greater meaning to giving the #2 team in the division a first round bye, other than that it just makes the seeding for six teams per conference convenient.

So, for the sake of having-stuff-to-do-in-the-offseason, let’s consider what the expansion might mean:

Who’s In?
For each conference, under the current rules, the four division champions take the first through fourth seeds. Of the remaining teams, the next two best teams (based on record followed by a series of tie-breakers) are slotted in the fifth and sixth slots. First and second seeds get a first-round bye and the lower seeds play at the higher seeds. As the playoffs progress, the lower seed always plays at the higher seed until the neutral-site Super Bowl is held on garbage field conditions.

Under the proposed format, a seventh seed (3rd wildcard) would be added to face the second-seed in the opening weekend. Per the 2015 standings, this 7th team in the AFC would have been the New York Jets (10-6), the only 10-win team in the league to not make the playoffs which, again, featured two 9-win teams hosting games. In the NFC, it would be the Atlanta Falcons (8-8).

For the teams that TCOB, like the Super Bowl teams and #1 overall seeds, Denver and Carolina, the playoff expansion is a boon with them now receiving the only bye and maintaining home field advantage in a league where both factors are statistically valuable. To the second seed teams, it’s a bust to lose that bye. To the remaining 24 teams (non division champs), it’s another chance to make the playoffs. And that increased competition, to the NFL, means a more valuable regular season. Hotter races at the top for the sole bye and more fluid wild card races that last through Week 17.

Looking at the 2015 standings, the Jets and Falcons embody the two extremes of playoff controversy. Whereas the Jets were a 10-win team (4-1 in their last five) in a respectable division (three teams .500 or above) and were left out in lieu of division champs with worse records, the Falcons went 8-8 with one of the easiest strength of schedules (where they ran up seven of their wins against the two joke divisions listed above and managed only one in-division win) and a 6-1 start. You can make the argument that the Jets are a bubble team but you’re only giving them a chance at the expense of letting in a team that clearly does not belong.

Personally, I like the current set up. I even like the division champs, even at 3-12-1, hosting a playoff game. I think the sample size of a season is too low to compare teams with one-win differentials without considering scheduling differences. But if the NFL is going to expand the playoffs, they might as well just establish the regular season and Super Bowl championships as separate accomplishments within the league year (which I understand is kind of like how it works in some soccer leagues)…but I don’t know who’d actually think that would be a good idea.