I told myself I was going to try to keep my Oscar posts a little shorter this year. So far, well… Here are your 2017 Academy Award nominees!

BEST PICTURE
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

I’m behind on my top-of-ticket viewing so far this year, having seen only Arrival and Hell or High Water so far. For that reason, and also because I’m sure I’m going to spend a lot of time talking about each of these nine movies for the next month, I’m not going to say a lot here, but both Arrival and Hell are terrific and I’m thrilled I saw them. Everything I’ve heard suggests this is a very strong group from top to bottom; Moonlight, Hidden Figures, Manchester, and La La Land have all been high on my to-see list since their releases.

But what about…? I hate when the Academy doesn’t nominate ten films in this category. I understand why the math usually works out that way, but no way in hell were there only nine movies this year worthy of this level of recognition. The biggest snub, in my opinion, is The VVitch.  It’s my favorite movie I’ve seen so far from 2016, and (or as some horror buffs might put it, because) I’m not really even a horror fan. It’s an impeccably crafted, superbly acted feminist parable, and I’m a sucker for horror movies that are about something underneath the scares. I’d also have been happy to see Deadpool, Silence, Captain Fantastic, Kubo and the Two Strings, or even Foreign Language nominee Toni Erdmann here.

BEST DIRECTOR
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight

Again, Arrival‘s the only one of these I’ve seen. I really liked Villaneuve’s Sicario last year, and he’s leveled up in a big way since then. Most observers seem to be calling this a two-horse race between Chazelle and Jenkins. Moonlight looks likely to be the deeper, more compelling film, but if Chazelle wins, I’ll just call it justice for 2014’s Whiplash.

But what about…? It’s a shame not to see Scorsese nominated for Silence; he’s been trying to get this movie made since Richard Linklater started filming Boyhood, give or take, and it really is an interesting meditation on faith and redemption.

BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

I’m thrilled that Viggo Mortensen landed a nomination here. Captain Fantastic is a fascinating movie that’s superficially similar to Little Miss Sunshine—an idiosyncratic family road trip movie—but thematically more akin to Whiplash in its exploration of the costs of pursuing a certain kind of perfection.

But what about…? Ryan Gosling! Yeah, he’s nominated for La La Land, but it’s hard for me to imagine a better performance from him than he had in Shane Black’s The Nice Guys. Colin Farrell, in The Lobster, played an essential part in making that movie’s entire bizarre universe feel real, grounded, and immediate. Ryan Reynolds put on a great show as the title character in Deadpool, and while it was never going to happen, I wouldn’t have minded a nomination for Green Room‘s Anton Yelchin (God rest him) for bringing that movie’s almost unimaginable horrors to life.

BEST ACTRESS
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

I’ve only caught Florence Foster Jenkins, a perfectly fine and heartwarming movie, but not must-see material by any means. And as good as Meryl is in pretty much anything (and yes, she’s very good in this), her nomination feels more given than earned. It is nice to see Loving get a nod. Even though I haven’t seen it yet, it’s a story that means a lot to me, and I hadn’t read a lot of people talking lately about the movie or Negga’s work in it.

But what about…? Amy Adams is probably the most egregious snub in any category this year. She’s low-key perfection in Arrival, professional and inquisitive and vulnerable all at once. (I understand she’s also quite good in Nocturnal Animals.) As the heart of The VVitch, Anya Taylor-Joy would certainly have been one of my picks here. So, most likely, would Kate Beckinsale, who finally got to take a break from making Underworld movies and rewarded audiences with a charming, mischievous performance in the Austen adaptation Love & Friendship.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

Everyone seems to be saying this is Mahershala Ali’s race to lose, and I’m in no position to disagree. I will say that Bridges is great as Hell or High Water‘s menacing and complicated antagonist.

But what about…? Ralph Ineson brings a striking duality to his patriarch character in The VVitch, equal parts terrified and terrifying, that’s essential to the message of the movie. Russell Crowe is as good as Ryan Gosling or better in The Nice Guys, but I’m guessing he’d be slotted into the Supporting category if nominated.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

For the moment, I’m flying completely blind here. The betting odds heavily favor Viola Davis. Between her, Ali, and a number of other nominees of color, this year is mercifully shaping up to be much, much less white than the last one.

But what about…? Chloë Sevigny in Love & Friendship? Maybe? Or Kate Dickey in The VVitch? I don’t really feel strongly about anyone I’ve seen this year being left out.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
The Red Turtle
Zootopia

The two nominees I haven’t seen yet, Moana and Zucchini, are going to have a hard time unseating Kubo as my favorite animated film of the year. Zootopia‘s the one I would have left off; it’s beautifully rendered, fun and endearing, but as a movie about rejecting prejudice, it stumbles at times into inadvertently offering justifications for it.

But what about…? Finding Dory. Like Zootopia, it has a bit of a problem with undermining its own message, but in my view its flaws are less severe and its emotional impact is greater. And I know criticizing a movie that wasn’t even nominated here makes me a jerk, but I was relieved not to see The Little Prince, which didn’t really seem to understand its own source material, on this list.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
Life, Animated
O.J.: Made in America
13th

I’m doing well on documentaries. I’ve already seen 13th, Fire at Sea, Life, Animated, and all 5000 hours of O.J.: Made in America. The subject matter may be even heavier this year than usual, including three films about race relations in America, one not-particularly-hopeful depiction of the European refugee migrant crisis, and, for a palate cleanser, a sweet documentary about how Disney’s animated movies helped a man growing up with autism make sense of the world. At this point I prefer the focused argument of 13th to the wide-ranging, O.J.-as-theory-of-everything approach of Made in America, but there’s no denying the remarkable achievement of the latter, which might end up the first TV miniseries to win an Oscar.

But what about…? There were so many deserving nominees here that it seems like a real shame to limit the category to five. Weiner would certainly not have lightened the mood here, but it’s a devastatingly in-depth look into one of the most spectacular personal train wrecks of our time, and I was surprised not to see it listed. Tower, a documentary on the 1966 UT Tower shooting, was always more of a long shot, but I was incredibly impressed by its vivid-but-respectful combination of voice acting and animation with the testimony of real survivors to make that day’s raw emotions real and immediate. Ivory Game, essentially a war documentary about elephant poaching, and Witness, a searching piece of myth-interrogating journalism about the murder of Kitty Genovese, could also have made this list without any objections from me.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Land of Mine (Denmark)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
The Salesman (Iran)
Tanna (Australia)
Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Toni Erdmann is getting all the buzz in this race, and having just seen it, I’ve got to say it’s deserved. Generally speaking, no one is breaking down the theater doors to watch a German comedy, but Erdmann is the funniest thing I’ve seen this year in any language. The other ones I’ve watched here are Tanna, a true Romeo-and-Juliet story acted out by the Vanuatuan natives who lived through it, and Land of Mine, a shocking account of the post-World War II landmine cleanup on the beaches of Denmark.

But what about…? I’ve been putting off watching it myself, but I remember critics being stunned when South Korea’s The Handmaiden wasn’t even submitted by its country for competition.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence

This is the only nomination for Silence, which seems to have surprised a lot of people. I think that’s more a sign of the stiff competition in major categories this year than any particular flaws in Silence, which is a better movie than Scorsese’s last project, The Wolf of Wall Street. In any case, it’s unquestionably a beautifully shot movie throughout, whether it’s showing you the lush, scenic Japanese coastline or the austere confines or a prison camp.

But what about…? Lion cinematographer Greig Fraser could easily have had a second entry in this category with Rogue One: A Star Wars Story. You could fill a good-sized coffee table book with breathtaking frames from Rogue One.

BEST FILM EDITING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Moonlight

All Best Picture-nominated heavyweights here, which is typical for a category that historically has served as a bellwether for the Best Picture winner. Arrival and Hell or High Water are very different films with very different rhythms to them, but each flows well and neither has a bit of unnecessary padding. From what I’ve read so far, though, it’s unlikely that either is the eventual winner.

But what about…? Editing is honestly not something I notice in a movie unless I’m specifically trying to notice it. I’m at a loss to propose any additions or substitutions.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

I love, love, love the inclusion of The Lobster, the absolute strangest movie I’ve seen in Awards Year 2016. The premise: Single people have 45 days to find a partner or be turned into an animal of their choosing. The Lobster does not even once act as though this is absurd or even worth remarking on for non-expository purposes. It’s a trip, and unless you’re squeamish about movies where animals are harmed, you should check it out.

But what about…? A lot of research went into The VVitch‘s screenplay both linguistically authentic and representative of actual historical incidents of witchcraft accusations. The Nice Guys is a very smart comedy about some very dumb people, and both its visual gags and its dialogue always seem to land perfectly.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Arrival is a perfect little puzzle box, giving you every tool you need to decode its plot but handing them over so gradually and naturally that you won’t even recognize the tools for what they are. I don’t see it winning the prize, mostly because the movie’s biggest flaw is wholly a storytelling issue, but Eric Heisserer’s screenplay more than earns its place here. The rest? I’m sure they’re also excellent. I’ll find out for sure sometime in the next month.

But what about…? If Deadpool belonged anywhere in these Oscars, it belonged here. The Deadpool script is whip-smart and irreverent, qualities I’m sure the Very Serious Academy hates in it. And I’ve never read Jane Austen’s Lady Susan, but I can tell you that Whit Stillman’s adaptation of it, Love & Friendship, is lively and funny and an absolute delight to watch. And then there’s Birth of a Nation. The Sundance Film Festival darling has flaws that would probably have caused it to lose momentum even without the resurfacing rape allegations against director/writer/lead actor Nate Parker. (Of course, we here at DFO have always known that Nat Turner was a piece of shit.) But the movie drew rave reviews at its premiere for good reasons: It’s a powerful account of righteous vengeance that allows black people to be the authors of their own liberation, rather than relying on a white savior character as in The Help or even the outstanding 12 Years a Slave.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Extremis
4.1 Miles
Joe’s Violin
Watani: My Homeland
The White Helmets

I’ve already got Extremis, 4.1 Miles, Joe’s Violin, and The White Helmets under my belt. Joe’s Violin is the closest we’re going to get to a Holocaust movie this year, which I suppose makes it the cynic’s betting favorite, but it’s also a legitimately uplifting little film about a survivor’s gift to a young musician. The rest of the field shades much, much less cheery; three of the documentaries (4.1 Miles, Watani, and White Helmets) are, in one way or another, about the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Syria, and Extremis investigates medical professionals and family members forced to deal with end-of-life care.

But what about…? Frame 394 asks hard questions about the 2015 police shooting of Walter Scott, and by extension, about the American justice system as a whole. Nominated or not, it’s well worth the 30 minutes you’ll need to watch it.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Intérieurs
La Femme et le TGV
Silent Nights
Sing
Timecode

Your guess is as good as mine. I haven’t been able to catch a single one of these yet and I don’t know a thing about any of them. My only thought here is that the Academy’s animation wing robbed us of the opportunity to have two nominated films named Sing in the same show.

But what about…? I’ve got nothing.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Blind Vaysha
Borrowed Time
Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Pearl
Piper

Piper is one of the absolute best things I’ve seen this year of any length, and if I learned anything from the fate of World of Tomorrow last year, it’s that I therefore should be very pessimistic about Piper‘s odds of winning. Pearl‘s an outside-the-box experiment from Google, built for VR but watchable in a browser window, that reminds me more of the indie video game Virginia than any previous animated film. The only other one I’ve seen, Borrowed Time, is pretty dark, but that didn’t keep Bear Story from winning this category last year.

But what about…? The only other animated short I’ve seen in 2016 is Once Upon a Line. It’s fine, but I don’t think I’d substitute it for anything above.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Kubo and the Two Strings
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Every single nominee in a visual or sound effects category from 2015 was damned good; it says a lot that the weakest of the bunch was the crowd-pleasing Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I’ve seen Jungle Book, Kubo, and Rogue One out of these five, and I’ve heard very good things about Doctor Strange, but the thought of sitting through a Mark Wahlberg disaster movie—even a fairly well-reviewed one like Deepwater Horizon—makes my head hurt. If I’m picking a winner right now, I think it’s got to be Jungle Book for the dazzling array of creatures the CGI specialists brought to life, but I also love the lively, splashy effects added to the stop-motion Kubo. Rogue One is going to be divisive, on account of its fairly literal reanimation of a couple of people from the original trilogy, but I’ve got to admit the CG actors look about as real as you’ll ever get.

But what about…? I feel like 10 Cloverfield Lane deserves some recognition, if not for another stellar showing from John Goodman, then maybe for the effects.

BEST SOUND EDITING
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully

This is Sully’s only nomination, and I can’t say I’m too broken up about that. To me, Clint Eastwood seemed to be really stretching to make a compelling movie out of Chesley Sullenberger’s miracle landing, a remarkable story but one without much inherent conflict to it. I’ll give Sully this, though: It sounds incredible. The engines, the water, the deforming metal of the plane, everything is spot on, which is good because Eastwood brings you back to the crash approximately once every three minutes.

But what about…? I think I remember the sound in Midnight Special being good, but if you read last year, you know I don’t claim to be particularly discerning on this subject.

BEST SOUND MIXING
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

I hoped and prayed that I wouldn’t have to endure 13 Hours this year, and goddamn, I was so close. Turns out the movie’s not so much offensively bad as just bad in a workmanlike, technically adept sort of way. Its nomination here is basically all about the gun battles, and Michael Bay’s crew does a fine job balancing their chaotic noise. Rogue One does it better, though.

But what about…? The Jungle Book would have been a solid choice here.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
La La Land
Passengers

Hail, Caesar! fully deserves its inclusion here on the merits of its epic 1950s-style movie sets alone. And Arrival‘s art team had a particularly important responsibility: Designing the alien language that’s the primary driver for the movie’s entire plot. I’ve got to hand it to Fantastic Beasts‘ production designers as well for rendering 1920s New York and the magical landscape inside Eddie Redmayne’s suitcase with equal skill and attention to detail.

But what about…? The VVitch director Robert Eggers is a former stage production designer, and it shows. The VVitch‘s sets aren’t large or flashy, but like everything else about the movie they’re meticulously authentic.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Shout-out here to Allied, the movie rumored to have destroyed Angelina Jolie’s marriage. Of the two I’ve seen here, Fantastic Beasts and Florence Foster Jenkins, I’ve got to give this to the parallel-1920s fashion of the Harry Potter prequel.

But what about…? Silence‘s detailed period costumes, encompassing a wide range of 17th century Japanese clothing as well as the robes for its Portuguese Jesuit priests, could easily have been nominated for this award.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Of these, I’ve only seen Star Trek, and it’s got, you know, the makeup you’d expect from a Star Trek movie, which is good! Meanwhile, Ove is one of two nominees in the “lesser” feature film categories (Documentary and Animated) to grab additional nominations, the other being Kubo and the Two Strings. I can’t explain why, but I love when this happens.

But what about…? Deadpool. It’s a surprise that both it and Florence Foster Jenkins missed, but Deadpool is the more baffling exclusion. I wish I knew why this category usually only has three nominations.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers

I’m in the dark here, having seen exactly none of these.

But what about…? Rogue One: A Star Wars Story is the first Star Wars movie not scored by John Williams, and doesn’t suffer a bit for replacing him with Micheal Giacchino. Jóhann Jóhannsson’s Arrival score was a surprise omission for me, really showing off the composer’s extraordinary range.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Audition (The Fools Who Dream),” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“The Empty Chair,” Jim: The James Foley Story
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Unlike last year, I’m actually going to try to watch all five of these movies. (The absence of a Fifty Shades movie in the field helps, as does the fact that three of the songs are from two films nominated elsewhere.) “The Empty Chair” was a surprise here, and its nomination prevents the HBO documentary machine from being completely shut out. It’s a touching tribute by Sting to murdered conflict journalist James Foley, and in my opinion, it’s good enough to merit its spot. It’s the only one of these songs I’ve heard so far, so I’ll withhold judgment for now.

But what about…? Withhold judgment, that is, except to say that Irish musical Sing Street‘s “Drive It Like You Stole It” is an unconscionable omission. What the hell, Academy?

Cheers, guys. See you in February.