AUTHORS NOTE: You may be wondering why I am writing the Niners Bye Week Update a week after their bye. The simple answer is that America had Kind of A Lot Going On Right Now last week, and the ups and downs of the Santa Clara Failsons just didn’t register on the ol’ Spiritual Seismograph. But now I am retreating into my Happy Place, and that involves bagging on a team that should be running away with the NFC West.

2024 PREDICTION: “11-6, divisional round loss. Kyle Shanahan begins blaming elves for his inability to call running plays when leading in the 4th Quarter. CMC, Deebo and George Kittle retire to run a floating bed and breakfast in Sausalito.”

HOW’S THAT LOOKING?:

They are 5-4 after a near-miraculous last-second win over the receiverless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, keeping them half a game behind Arizona(!) for the division lead.

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED?: The obvious answer is “injuries”- St. Christian of McCaffrey spent the first 8 weeks on IR, Brandon Aiyuk tore two knee ligaments hefting the metaphorical Bag, Deebo Samuel ended up in the hospital after a game with pneumonia, and George Kittle has been knocked around all year. And all that was after their top draft pick Ricky Pearsall was fucking shot.

But frankly, I’m not sure if the obvious answer is the correct one. Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo ably filled in on the ground. Various combinations of Jauan Jennings, Deebo, Aiyuk and Pearsall have kept the yardage flowing through the air. The defense is in the top half of the league in most non-scoring stats. From a great height, there is no reason they should be struggling to stay over .500.

Looking through the stats, the only things that stand out are touchdowns. The Niners just aren’t scoring in line with their yardage numbers. Moreover, they are only really feasting on objectively goddawful or highly vulnerable teams (Jets, Patriots, C-Hox and Dallas). With upcoming games at Green Bay, at Buffalo, against the Lions and at Arizona, there is a legitimate chance that San Francisco finishes 8-9 after coming in as one of two NFC Super Bowl favorites.

It’s also been something of a mess in terms of team culture, exemplified by Deebo going off on kicker Jake Moody after his third missed field goal Sunday. This looks like one of the Terrell Owens Eagles teams, where everyone expected a cakewalk and turned on each other when they got punched.

WHAT’S GONNA HAPPEN NOW?:

Barring more catastrophic injury news or somesuch wildcard, I’m going with 9-8. Shanahan is an overrated pud, and their D is effective but fragile. McCaffrey will win them one (1) game single-handed that they otherwise have no business winning. Then his other other major tendons will spontaneously combust. Their talent and a soft home schedule may carry them to a gift Wild Card berth.

NFL NEWS:

-Dallas in disarray! Jerral suggests players suck it up and win staring contests with the Sun, instead of using curtains.

-DAK! officially on the shelf for the rest of the season, while Mike McCarthy may get canned! Are you enjoying my potted-meat puns?

-The Bearistocrats! have jettisoned offensive coordinator Shane Waldron midway through his (and rookie QB Caleb Williams) first season. The offense went 23 consecutive possessions without a touchdown, which is nearly impossible under modern NFL rules. Passing coordinator Thomas Brown, who ran the Panthers “offense” for a time last year, will take over.

I genuinely feel for Bears fans at this point. This team is the wheel upon which young quarterbacks are broken. It’s a level of organizational futility that defies any logic beyond “The McCaskeys are running a decades-long Major League-style scam in an effort to move the team to San Antonio”.