So I missed the traditional Bye Week Update window for the Santa Clara 49ers (2-3, third in the NFC West by virtue of not having played) largely because I didn’t realize until Sunday night that they were on a bye.

And that is somewhat telling about the team so far: mediocre, largely forgettable, and offering little hope for the future.  Even a shitty under-.500 finish does not hold the traditional promise of new growth from the ashes; although the Niners are currently on track for a first-round draft pick in the 10-15 range in a potentially very deep draft, they traded the pick to Miami for part of Trey Lance. More on him later.

From the Season Preview:

This year’s team does not hold a whole lot of promise, which is weird when you look at the talent of many of their individual players. They are what might be called a chainmail team. If you look at the links, they’re strong steel and should turn aside some heavy cuts. But to paraphrase…someone (Terry Pratchett?) from the arrow’s perspective it’s basically a series of interconnected holes.  GM John Lynch has put together a fair number of Names, but in between them are a whole bunch of below-replacement-level Guys.

…

It’s gonna be a weird one. The 49ers are building like they are One Piece Away, paying all their Named Guys huge money on a deferred basis (for instance, Fred Warner’s cap hit is $18 million in 2023). They traded away their first rounders the next two years, leaving them short on the ability to restock on cheap contracts.

But then they go and draft the consensus Least NFL Ready of the first-round quarterbacks. Even using the optimistic end of the New NFL Model, their window is precisely one year (2022) before the bill starts coming due and they have to shed salary like Atlanta and New Orleans.

And I stand by that characterization.  They are 2-3 because they started the season against Detroit and Philadelphia, then ran into a Packers-CHox (pre-Geno Smith)-Cardinals sandwich.  Despite not looking particularly strong in either of their wins (allowing 33 to Detroit…), the stats suggest they are what you might expect if you saw a 2-3 record with no context: a middling team.  Their offense is middle of the pack, although they don’t convert 3rd downs. Their defense is middle of the pack, although they have only two turnovers (1 interception and 1 fumble) through 5 games.

An optimistic Niners fan will point to a spate of injuries (RIP Colonel Mostert) and playing Arizona without Jimmy G or George Kittle.  He or she would also point to Trey Lance himself as hope for the future.  For the first 3 games, Kyle Shanahanananan dipped him in slowly, only giving him a few series each game.  He played about half the Seattle game and started against Arizona, looking like Rookie Year Josh Allen- under 200 yards passing on a low-50% completion percentage, with some good rushing yards.  Unfortunately for the Niners, Buffalo was in the midst of an explicit rebuild when Allen looked like this, so the supporting cast would inevitably Get Better.  Here, Trey Lance was working with a lot of the high-priced talent and still looked Droopy.  I really hope I’m wrong, but he has shades of Mitch Trubisky at this point: overdrafted by a team without a coherent plan, set up to fail until he gets a New Start somewhere else.

Brandon Aiyuk has 90 yards receiving through five games. SAD.

I’m liking my 6-11 prediction.  Literally the only ray of sunshine for the Niner Fan is that Lynch probably sacks Shanahananan to save his own job, so you get another chance to roll the dice on an Offensive Genius head coach.  Good luck with that…

OTHER NFL NEWS:

Relatively quiet day.

-As of this writing, Baker Mayfield (Questionable-Schroedinger’s Shoulder) is planning to play Thursday night against the Broncos, despite seeking a second opinion on whether he needs season-ending surgery to repair a partially-torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder.  He injured the shoulder a month ago and has been middling, but aggravated it Sunday against the Cardinals. Maybe this is a smoke-screen to confuse Vic Fangio, but I don’t believe anyone has ever blanched at having to prepare for Case Keenum on short notice.

-Houston is preparing to release best-named-defensive-player Whitney Mercilus after 9 years.  Mercilus, #2 on the Texans’ sack list after JJ Watt, will likely land on a contender and cost Houston something around $8 million in dead cap space. So wins all around.

LESSER SPORTS:

Apparently baseball is still going on?  Frankly, all the remaining teams are slimey shitballs- Atlanta is White Flight Personified, the Dodgers are a Trump child, Houston is still a bunch of cheating cockrings and Boston is Boston.

OBSCURE TUESDAY MOVIE:

Undercover Brother!

Yes, another Eddie Griffin work, this time from 2002. It’s a surprisingly nuanced take on the Blaxploitation genre.  Dave Chappelle! Chi McBride! Denise Richards! Neil Patrick Harris! BILLY DEE WILLIAMS AND JAMES BROWN!!!!!!!

It made some money and it had a TREMENDOUS cast, so maybe it’s not “obscure”.  BUT it doesn’t get NEARLY the credit it deserves. Go watch it instead of some fucking baseball.