Once More Unto The Breach: 2025 Buffalo Bills Preview (and Tuesday Open Thread)

Half a league onward,

All in the valley of Death

   Rode the six hundred.

“Forward, the Light Brigade!

Charge for the guns!” he said.

Into the valley of Death

   Rode the six hundred.

The Charge of the Light Brigade
By Alfred, Lord Tennyson

2024 PREDICTION: “11-6, playoffs. It’s gonna hurt, but I am Ready to Love Again.”

2024 REALITY: 13-4, winning the AFC East, disposing of the Upstart Broncos and Crafty Ravens before running face-first into the Taylor Swift Buzzsaw.

Again.

We claimed a moral victory in the form of Josh Allen’s MVP Award, which…I mean yes, he was more valuable to his team than any other player. The Bills are 5-12 if we have a replacement-level quarterback. But by that measure, Tua should have been MVP at some point based on how the Dolphins utterly fall apart whenever he gets knocked the fuck out.

Anyway.

It was actually a very pleasant year to be a Bills fan, as these things go. They beat the teams they should have beaten (until a glorified preseason game against New England in Week 18) and hung close in two others. The transition to a run-first offense under OC Joe Brady was complete- the Bills were 9th in the league in rushing attempts (and yardage) while being 26th in passing attempts.

Now, “run-first” is usually a euphemism for “run-only”- looking at you, Philly. Not so in Buffalo- 9th in passing yardage, good for 5th in the league for net yards per attempt.

Even more impressive was the way they got these yards. This wasn’t Allen uncorking reckless home-run balls; he placed the ball where his no-name receiver corps could rack up yards-after-catch. Spread the ball around. Only 8 turnovers. Only 14 sacks taken (.2 Caleb Williamses, for reference) which is insane for a quarterback who will gladly scramble to keep plays alive. When NFL coaches talk about “execution” on offense, this is what they mean.

The cobbled-together defense continued their traditional Russian strategy- cede territory, bleed out the opposition, wait for General Winter to harvest their souls. The yardage figures are Unimpressive (particularly the rush defense) but an astonishing 17.5% of opposing drives ended in turnovers.

2025 Big Damn Changes:

Very damn few! The corpse of Von Miller fucked off to Washington, so we brought in the corpse of Joey Bosa. Micah Hyde retired, so we brought back Jordan Poyer and Tre’Davious White to play the roles of Injured Old Guy in our secondary.

Mostly, we resigned our own. Which may seem like “if you’re not improving, you’re falling behind,” but after an almost 20 year playoff drought, locking up a talented young core sounds pretty good to most Buffalonians.

Their only big coaching change was punting goddawful special teams coordinator Matthew Smiley for not-terribly-good special teams coordinator Chris Tabor. This seems like a failure, but a Conference Championship-level team retaining both offensive and defensive coordinators is a rare gift.

Schedule:

Fuck’em! Ain’t care! Bring on any of you sonsabitches! We’ll fight all of you at once!

To make up for the advantages of 1. playing nine home games, 2. not having to schlep overseas, and 3. playing the NFC South, the Schedulemeisters fucked us a bit by including several Significant Challenges: the Ravens, the Chiefs and the Iggles.

I’m not gonna lie: Philly at Buffalo on December 28? Possibly in the snow? That has the potential to be an All Timer.

2025 PREDICTION:

Unsurprisingly for those who have read my bullshit for the last ten years

I am rapidly cycling between We Can Never Have Nice Things hopelessness and I Touch the Stove Because I Need To Feel Alive optimism.

The “Everybody Eats” offense spreads the ball too thin, with no actual playmakers. Or it keeps defenses so off-balance that average players can make big plays.

Our offense runs through a throwback Field General type who is only getting better as he ages. Or he’s taken a huge amount of punishment and may demonstrate the traditional risks of having a general who leads from the front.

Our secondary is suspect. Or it may be a promising mix of young stars and returning heroes.

Our defensive line is suspended. Or will get much-needed fresh reinforcement seven games in.

Fuckit. Charge the wall again. 12-5. Super Bowl.

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!