Burdened with Glorious Purpose: 2023 Buffalo Bills Preview and Tuesday Open Thread

2022 PREDICTION: 9-8

2022 REALITY: 13-3! (No record for Cincy game, on account of Damar Hamlin temporarily dying)

From last year’s Preview:

There is nothing more depressing to a Bills fan than an expectation of success. We can’t cope with it, because of our near-religious faith in The Narrative.

The Narrative has taught us that we can’t have nice things.

The Narrative holds that even after the other shoe has dropped, there will somehow be a third, larger shoe that kicks us squarely in the balls.

The Narrative is God, if the only version of God was the asshole “Trading Places” one in the Book of Job.

So being favored in anything feels like a death sentence. A guarantee that Josh Allen’s right shoulder will spontaneously combust in garbage time of Week 5, even after he’s been pulled from the game, or that Putin will launch his missiles with 2 minutes left in the AFC Championship and the Bills up by 10.

So that didn’t happen! Indeed, there was a weird moment there (after Damar was no longer mostly dead) where it felt like The Narrative might actually work in our favor!

Coming into Cincy in Week 17, the Bills were 12-3 and looking pretty good despite devastating injuries on the defense. Von Miller was out. Tre’Davious White was recovering from an ACL tear. Jordan Poyer rode in a van to the Chiefs game instead of flying because he had a collapsed fucking lung. The only reason Hamlin was even in the lineup was the loss of stalwart Micah Hyde in Week 2 due to a neck injury. But the Bills offense was bumping along (albeit with a wonky running game heavily dependent on Josh Allen) and the defense was still near the top of the league in most categories. They had (partially) avenged the prior year’s bullshit playoff loss by knocking off the Chiefs in KC. Given that the Bengals were considered the only other major AFC threat, it was shaping up as a true Battle…

That was cancelled. It was cancelled because a man briefly died on the field. It was cancelled because the coaches and the players on both sides decided that basic human decency required them to lay down arms with potential decisive home field advantage on the line. Not the league- the league was ready for them to resume the gladiatorial games. But it was beauty in the midst of carnage.

BUT!

Thanks to an amazing Bills training staff:

and Cincinnati hospital staff, Hamlin lived. He lived, and he recovered, and he is now out on the goddamned field again.

Beauty in the midst of carnage.

Once it was established that Damar was going to be ok, we all kind of looked around and said “Ok, if there is a Narrative, the Bills have to win the Super Bowl now, right?” Because that’s how the movies go. I mean, for God’s sake, it was straight out of Necessary Roughness!

And the Bills were doing their part. After administering the quietus to the Patriots’ dim playoff hopes (and sending Darth Hoodie to his second losing season in 21 years), they bopped the Dolphins on the head in the first round like the field mice they were.  Then they hosted those same Bengals at home, at home in Orchard Park in the snow, in the playoffs…and lost. Just totally flat.

Fucking Narrative.

2023 Big Damn Changes: The biggest one is actually the one getting very little press outside Buffalo: defensive coordinator/assistant head coach Leslie Frazier decided to take the year off from coaching after five highly successful years with the Bills. The Bills have not named a replacement, with head coach Sean McDermott putting on a “second hat” as defensive playcaller. Which he needs.

In theory, this should be fine- McDermott was very successful as a DC before this gig, and the general feeling is that he kind of let his offensive coordinators run their own ship anyway. But anytime you have a disruption like this, you gotta worry.

Otherwise, most of the changes have been tweaks rather than seismic shifts. Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is probably the biggest loss, having signed a gargantuan $72 million deal with the Bears, and the Bills deciding to fill the position from within rather than signing, drafting or trading for a replacement. On the other hand, Von Miller is on his way back, with his old Rams running mate Leonard Floyd added for pass rush, and underappreciated Giant Human Poona Ford is now on board. The secondary is also looking fit, healthy and sharp, so there’s reason for optimism.

On the offense, things look fairly familiar. With only one change on the starting offensive line and the promotion of James Cook to 1 instead of 1b with Devin Singletary’s departure, their “normal” set should look pretty familiar. They added a new slot receiver in Deonte Harty from the Saints, and they now have a “1 and 1a” situation at tight end with Dawson Knox and first-rounder Dalton Kincaid. I’m always suspicious of rookie tight ends, but given that the intent is to use him more as a giant slot receiver, probably not as big a concern as normal.

Also, Stefon Diggs had some sort of minor hissy fit. No big deal. I’m sure it was nothing. Let us never speak of it again.

Schedule: Weird. The AFC East is hard to predict, mostly because:

1. No one really knows how Aaron Rodgers is going to gel with the Jets and NYC’s superior drug scene,

2. Tua has less business being out on the field than Damar, in terms of future risk to life and limb, and

3. It’s unclear whether Belichick re-upped his soul-mortgage in the offseason.

The Bills drew the NFC East and AFC West as the meat of the remainder of their schedule, with the Jags (in London), Bucs and Bengals for spice.  The results against the Commanders, Giants and Non-gendered Cowpersons will likely depend on what injuries each team has sustained by the time they roll around on the schedule, although playing the Eagles in Philly is gonna suck. While the bottom of the AFC West shouldn’t present too much of a challenge, the back half of the schedule has some very, very heavy lifts: Bengals (in Cincinnati AGAIN), Eagles in Philly, Chiefs (in KC AGAIN), Chargers (in San…er, Los Angeles), are a bitch of a set of roadblocks.

2023 PREDICTION: 12-5, tied for AFC East crown. As always, the injury factor will be dispositive, but we have reason for Hope.

NFL NEWS:

-Seattle rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who missed last year with an injury, is likely to miss time this year with a different injury after wrist surgery. Draft accordingly.

-Baker Mayfield has “beaten out” Kyle Trask for the Buccaneers’ starting QB job. Draft accordingly (snicker)

-Robert Saleh has decided to throw Aaron Rodgers into a preseason game for the first time since 2018. Responding to questions about the risk of injury to the 39 year old, quoth the Bald Man:

You can slip out of your car and have something happen to you. Knock on wood, everyone will be fine.

Obviously, the only appropriate way for the Universe to handle this is for Aaron Rodgers to tear his ACL getting out of his car in the Meadowlands parking garage.

NON-NFL NEWS:

-The Little League Baseball World Series is into the Elimination Game. That seems unduly harsh for kids.