“So Far, So Good” Said The Skydiver With No Parachute: 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the Bye (and Open Thread)

MAYHEM’S 2023 PREDICTION: “4-13. Look for Ryan Tannehill or Kirk Cousins to sign here next year if they don’t have the draft position for a top-tier QB.”

HOW’S THAT LOOKING?: Not great, Bob! The Bucs are currently 3-1, and that is their best-likely-case scenario. Sure, a radioactive cheese steak could have bitten Jalen Hurts and caused him to leave the Eagles for a life of crime-fighting, but that was about the only way Tampa was going to have a chance versus the Iggles.

So beating up on what looked to be soft targets (Bears, Saints) was absolutely necessary for them to have any chance at their division. But they also got by the Vikings, back when it was uncertain whether they would suck (which they do).

So how are they doing it? With defense, mostly a stingy-ass secondary. According to the Pro-Football Reference folks, Tampa blitzes on relatively high 38.8% of dropbacks, but only hurries the quarterback 6.1% of the time- very middling. What they do instead is knock the quarterback down a very high 10.1% of dropbacks, and get turnovers. Nearly a quarter of opponents’ drives have resulted in a turnover against Tampa, which is Bills-level. So well done them.

The offense has been Deeply Meh. Baker Mayfield won the starting job, and has kept it by being very un-Baker Mayfield. 7 TDs, 2 interceptions, passing short and at a career-high accuracy. Perhaps most importantly, he’s taking sacks on only 3.1% of dropbacks, less than half his career average. Dude is not playing Hero Ball (at least according to the stats) and it must be killing him. Mayfield-in-Cleveland was the new Rex Grossman, just waiting for a chance to Unleash the Dragon. Now he’s gone full Game Manager, and with healthy Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, that can be a very successful (if soul-destroying) place. Tampa still can’t run worth a damn- at 3 yards per attempt, they wallow at the bottom of the table with the Steelers, Texans and Raiders.

So can they Maintain? Of course not. That turnover rate is unsustainable- higher than the 2000 Ravens, who in turn bucked the overall trend of the best teams maxing out between 18 and 19%. And they’re not stout enough on every down to compensate for the points prevented by those excess turnovers.

A regression toward the mean on defense (which seems likely with the Lions, Bills and 49ers in the next section of their schedule) is going to expose the holes on the offense- Baker is going to be asked to do more, and we’ve seen how that ends: with interceptions, sacks and shitty commercials.

REVISED PREDICTION: 7-10, which still might win the division. Their schedule is looking mighty soft after visiting Santa Clara, so if they can avoid injuries and let the rest of their division self-destruct, they might slide into the playoffs again.

NFL NEWS:

-INJURIES! Each more injurious than the last!

Cardinals stalwart running back James Conner is out for at least 4 weeks with a knee injury, as is Dolphins wünderrookie De’Von Achane as they both head to IR. Achane is likely the more concerning one long-term, as a speedster dependent on acceleration.

Buffalo’s defense sustained yet another body blow, with elite linebacker (and cookie) Matt Milano likely out for the season with at least a broken leg PLUS a likely ACL tear. Overachiever. Gritty. Grinder.

The big news for Fantasy Degenerates is Justin Jefferson- first overall pick in many drafts- being placed on IR for a hamstring injury. While this puts him out for at least 4 weeks (Chicago, 49ers, Green Bay and Atlanta), the team is already talking about getting multiple opinions and not rushing him back. So, possible good news for the Saints, Broncos and Bears (again), but bad news for I Heart Big TDs, Nugz-n-Tugz and whoever else in your fantasy league reached for him.

NON-NFL NEWS:

FAT BEAR WEEK CONCLUDES!

The polls are still open as of press time, but DFO News is projecting a landslide victory for Mayhem Family Favorite 128 Grazer! Way to go, Mama Bear. At least one bear knows how to protect a lead.

WHAT’S ON TONIGHT:

Ice Footie returns! While the season-opening tilt will likely be over by the time you read this, it’s only Nashville and Tampa- neither of whom should exist.

Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins
8 p.m. ET, 7 p.m. DFO on ESPN: Chicago’s ill-gotten reward for enabling and concealing sexual abuse, Connor Bedard, makes his career debut against the dessicated corpse-husk of Sidney Crosby.

Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights

10:30 p.m. ET, 9:30 p.m. DFO on ESPN

I really can’t hate on either of these teams. Seattle is a bunch of gritty try-hards with neat uniforms that will look ridiculously dated in 5 years (see: Marlins and Rockies). Vegas let Eichel do Eichel, and although they did Robin Lehner a little dirty by not having his name engraved on the Cup, they are perhaps the least annoying Hot Weather Hockey team.